2. BundesligaMillerntor-Stadion, Hamburg16°0,3 mm14 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    St. PauliSt. PauliPossession & high press
    vs
    WolfsburgWolfsburgPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Wolfsburg (39%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 4.80 (+29 %)

    St. Pauli – Wolfsburg · 2. Bundesliga

    1 · St. Pauli 31%X 30%39% Wolfsburg · 2

    Analysis: St. Pauli – Wolfsburg

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Wolfsburg's attack has been generating significant buzz this season, with an impressive xG per match of 2.3. This highlights their capacity to create high-quality scoring chances. The visitors' approach focuses on possession control, aiming to dictate the tempo and exploit any lapses in their opponents' defensive structure. A look at their early season form, accumulating 8 points and an xPoints tally of 7.0, underscores their efficiency and consistency.

    St. Pauli, meanwhile, aims to disrupt Wolfsburg's rhythm with a high press strategy. Their xG of 1.5 per match reflects a competent, if not brilliant, offensive capability, which they will need to maximize against Wolfsburg's slightly more porous defense (xGA of 1.4). Despite their aggressive approach, St. Pauli has only managed 3 points so far, suggesting that converting possession into points has been a struggle.

    The model indicates a slight edge for Wolfsburg, favored at 39% to win compared to St. Pauli's 31%. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13%, closely followed by a 0-1 Wolfsburg victory at 10%. With expected goals (xG) leaning slightly towards the visitors, there's a case for a low-scoring affair, particularly as both sides pride themselves on maintaining possession.

    An often overlooked angle emerges in the betting market for those keen on exploiting value. The odds of under 1.5 goals are available at 4.8 with bookmakers like Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a substantial 29% edge according to the model's assessment. Though the likelihood of a low-scoring game isn't the predominant scenario, the statistical value presented by these odds is difficult to ignore for those inclined towards riskier wagers.

    In sum, while both teams have their strengths, Wolfsburg's superior xG figures and form suggest they may edge this contest, potentially by a narrow margin. However, the shrewd punter may find the under 1.5 market worth a calculated gamble, given the attractive odds.

    St. PauliSt. Pauli
    Form DDLD
    League ranking xG #13xGA #6xT #2xP/match #14Points #15
    Key players
    • Arkadiusz PyrkaRWxG 0.01 · xT 0.29
    • Taichi HaraFxG 0.30 · xT 0.11
    • David NemethCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.14
    WolfsburgWolfsburg
    Form DWWD
    League ranking xG #1xGA #7xT #3xP/match #2Points #4
    Key players
    • Fabian ReeseLWxG 0.56 · xT 0.27
    • Alexander Olof BernhardssonRWxG 0.37 · xT 0.26
    • Joakim MæhleRWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.23

    Match prediction: St. Pauli – Wolfsburg

    Predicted score matrix

    Wolfsburg →
    St. Pauli →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.0%
    0–19.9%
    0–26.9%
    0–33.1%
    0–4+1.4%
    1
    1–08.9%
    1–113.0%
    1–28.5%
    1–33.8%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–05.7%
    2–17.7%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–13.2%
    3–22.1%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.9%
    4+–11.3%
    4+–20.9%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-110%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-29%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,23–1,35
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @2.42EV+27%
    Over 2,548%
    @1.57

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Wolfsburg or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.03

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Wolfsburg or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Maximilian Arnold to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Connor Isaac Metcalfe to score22%
    • Vinicius de Souza Costa to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 1.527% probability@4.80BetsafeEV+29%reference odds
    • Under 1.527% probability@4.80BetssonEV+29%reference odds
    • Under 1.527% probability@4.80NordicbetEV+29%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · St. PauliX2 · Wolfsburg
    Betfair Exchange2.78
    EV+ 13%
    3.80
    EV+ 1%
    2.58
    Betsafe2.55
    EV+ 4%
    3.50    		2.42
    Betsson2.55
    EV+ 4%
    3.50    		2.42
    Nordicbet2.55
    EV+ 4%
    3.50    		2.42
    Paddy Power2.50
    EV+ 7%
    3.60    		2.30
    Pinnacle2.52
    EV+ 16%
    3.89    		2.53

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:31

    Odds movement

    1-4 %
    39 %34 %

    2.63 → 2.52

    X+1 %
    27 %22 %

    3.84 → 3.89

    2+3 %
    41 %36 %

    2.45 → 2.53

    Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    St. Pauli
    Wolfsburg
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    St. Pauli (6–7)
    Wolfsburg (10–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    St. Pauli
    Marcus Mathisen: 244 passningar, xT 0.58MathisenDavid Nemeth: 215 passningar, xT 0.46NemethTomoya Ando: 198 passningar, xT 0.27AndoMathias Knutsen Rasmussen: 173 passningar, xT 0.47RasmussenArkadiusz Pyrka: 164 passningar, xT 1.05PyrkaEric Smith: 156 passningar, xT 0.15SmithLouis Oppie: 125 passningar, xT 0.78OppieBen Alexander Voll: 85 passningar, xT 0.16VollBranimir Hrgota: 69 passningar, xT 0.52HrgotaJoel Chima Fujita: 58 passningar, xT 0.01FujitaMartijn Kaars: 43 passningar, xT 0.07Kaars
    Wolfsburg
    Hauke Finn Wahl: 225 passningar, xT 0.67WahlMathys Angély: 167 passningar, xT 0.28AngélyVini Souza: 147 passningar, xT 0.25SouzaJakub Zieliński: 143 passningar, xT 0.18ZielińskiElvis Rexhbeçaj: 136 passningar, xT 0.38RexhbeçajKilian Fischer: 127 passningar, xT 0.14FischerFabian Reese: 115 passningar, xT 0.88ReeseJoakim Mæhle: 114 passningar, xT 0.73MæhleMuhammed Mehmet Damar: 105 passningar, xT 0.25DamarSael Kumbedi: 77 passningar, xT 0.19KumbediAlexander Olof Bernhardsson: 35 passningar, xT 0.35Bernhardsson
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    St. Pauli
    Marcus Mathisen: 244 passningar, xT 0.58MathisenDavid Nemeth: 215 passningar, xT 0.46NemethTomoya Ando: 198 passningar, xT 0.27AndoMathias Knutsen Rasmussen: 173 passningar, xT 0.47RasmussenArkadiusz Pyrka: 164 passningar, xT 1.05PyrkaEric Smith: 156 passningar, xT 0.15SmithLouis Oppie: 125 passningar, xT 0.78OppieBen Alexander Voll: 85 passningar, xT 0.16VollBranimir Hrgota: 69 passningar, xT 0.52HrgotaJoel Chima Fujita: 58 passningar, xT 0.01FujitaMartijn Kaars: 43 passningar, xT 0.07Kaars
    Wolfsburg
    Hauke Finn Wahl: 225 passningar, xT 0.67WahlMathys Angély: 167 passningar, xT 0.28AngélyVini Souza: 147 passningar, xT 0.25SouzaJakub Zieliński: 143 passningar, xT 0.18ZielińskiElvis Rexhbeçaj: 136 passningar, xT 0.38RexhbeçajKilian Fischer: 127 passningar, xT 0.14FischerFabian Reese: 115 passningar, xT 0.88ReeseJoakim Mæhle: 114 passningar, xT 0.73MæhleMuhammed Mehmet Damar: 105 passningar, xT 0.25DamarSael Kumbedi: 77 passningar, xT 0.19KumbediAlexander Olof Bernhardsson: 35 passningar, xT 0.35Bernhardsson

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceSt. PauliWolfsburg
    Points38
    xPoints5.17
    xG per match1.52.3
    xGA per match1.31.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.39
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.130.18
    Playing styleSt. PauliWolfsburg
    Build-up efficiency0.30.31
    Field tilt0.620.55
    xT per match1.51.4
    xTA per match0.920.92
    Won balls, offensive half3126
    Pressing intensity0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency0.250.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.27
    Entries into the box per match1515
    Entries into the box against1213
    Pass completion %0.760.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.720.73
    Passes per match412395
    Passes against per match374310
    Switches of play per match21.521.2
    Long balls per match3136
    Set piecesSt. PauliWolfsburg
    xG from free kicks0.050.08
    Corners per match5.86.8
    Corners against per match3.87
    xG per corner0.060.05
    xGA per corner against0.040.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.430.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670.41
    OtherSt. PauliWolfsburg
    Throw-in control0.820.75
    The goalkeepersBen Alexander Voll (St. Pauli)Jakub Zieliński (Wolfsburg)
    Saves1214
    Save %71%70%
    xG prevented50%45%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    St. Pauli
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Wolfsburg
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins St. Pauli vs Wolfsburg according to our model?

    The model gives Wolfsburg a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Pauli 31%, draw 30%, Wolfsburg 39%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    BochumBochum
    0–1
    Hertha BerlinHertha Berlin
    1 43%X 28%2 29%
    The model missed the outcome
    DarmstadtDarmstadt
    2–2
    Holstein KielHolstein Kiel
    1 49%X 24%2 27%
    The model missed the outcome
    WolfsburgWolfsburg
    0–0
    KaiserslauternKaiserslautern
    1 43%X 29%2 28%
    The model missed the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.