Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

2. Bundesliga13 September 2026Voith-Arena, Heidenheim16°0,8 mm14 km/h

Läs på svenska

HeidenheimPossession control

Holstein KielPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Holstein Kiel (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.50 (+31 %)

1 · Heidenheim 36%X 28%36% Holstein Kiel · 2

36%

28%

36%

Analysis: Heidenheim – Holstein Kiel

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The deadlock in model probabilities—36% for both Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel—suggests a finely balanced contest. Both teams share a penchant for possession play, but it’s Holstein Kiel that carries the model's lean. While Heidenheim has more points in the table, the visitors boast a slight edge in xPoints, xG, and xGA, indicating a more efficient underlying performance.

The most likely outcome, a 1-1 draw at 12%, echoes the near-identical expected goals: 1.38 for Heidenheim, 1.36 for Kiel. The over 2.5 goals sitting at 52% shows a marginal inclination towards a higher-scoring affair, yet the balanced nature of both sides’ playing styles might keep the scoreline controlled. Don't overlook the 56% chance for both teams to score, reinforcing the stalemate narrative.

Yet, the sharpest angle emerges from the betting market. Holstein Kiel presents a compelling value opportunity at odds of 3.4 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, given the model rates their chances at 36%, offering a 22% edge. Betting on the visitors could be the astute play here, though a 1-0 home win is actually slightly more probable than a 0-1 away win.

Heidenheim

Form WLWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #8xP/match #12Points #3

Key players

Marvin PieringerFxG 0.22 · xT -0.04
Marcel CostlyFxG 0.29 · xT 0.15
Budu ZivzivadzeFxG 0.15 · xT 0.00

Holstein Kiel

Form LDDLD

League ranking xG #8xGA #4xT #4xP/match #6Points #16

Key players

Phil HarresFxG 0.68 · xT -0.02
Guillermo BalziRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.08
Alexander BernhardssonFxG 0.01 · xT 0.33

Match prediction: Heidenheim – Holstein Kiel

Predicted score matrix

Holstein Kiel →

Heidenheim →

0–06.8%

0–18.4%

0–25.9%

0–32.7%

0–4+1.2%

1–08.6%

1–112.5%

1–28.2%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.7%

2–06.2%

2–18.4%

2–25.7%

2–32.6%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.8%

3–13.9%

3–22.6%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,38–1,36

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@2.64EV+28%

Over 2,552%

@1.53

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw (X2)63%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Phil Harres to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Marvin Pieringer to score25%
Niklas Bernd Dorsch to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.524% probability@5.50Paddy PowerEV+31%reference odds
Under 2.548% probability@2.64Betfair ExchangeEV+28%reference odds
Under 2.548% probability@2.60Paddy PowerEV+26%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Heidenheim	X	2 · Holstein Kiel
Betfair Exchange	2.08	EV+ 11% 3.90	EV+ 15% 3.20
Betsafe	2.12	3.45	EV+ 7% 3.00
Betsson	2.12	3.45	EV+ 7% 3.00
Nordicbet	2.12	3.45	EV+ 7% 3.00
Paddy Power	2.00	EV+ 7% 3.75	EV+ 4% 2.90
Pinnacle	2.12	EV+ 12% 3.93	EV+ 12% 3.14

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:13

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Holstein Kiel win since 8 September — the odds have shortened from 3.47 to 3.14 (−10%).

1+8 %

49 %44 %

1.97 → 2.12

X0 %

27 %22 %

3.92 → 3.93

2-10 %

32 %27 %

3.47 → 3.14

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 08/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Heidenheim

Holstein Kiel

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Heidenheim (11–10)

Holstein Kiel (6–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Heidenheim

Holstein Kiel

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Heidenheim

Holstein Kiel

The teams in numbers

Performance	Heidenheim	Holstein Kiel
Points	9	3
xPoints	5.6	6
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	1.5	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.25

Playing style	Heidenheim	Holstein Kiel
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.28
Field tilt	0.34	0.68
xT per match	0.96	1.3
xTA per match	0.8	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	22	35
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.3
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	15	10
Pass completion %	0.7	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.72
Passes per match	269	401
Passes against per match	375	301
Switches of play per match	30.6	17.9
Long balls per match	41	26

Set pieces	Heidenheim	Holstein Kiel
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.21
Corners per match	3.7	5.5
Corners against per match	6.7	6.1
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.55
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.5

Other	Heidenheim	Holstein Kiel
Throw-in control	0.72	0.7

The goalkeepers	Thomas Dähne (Heidenheim)	Timon Moritz Weiner (Holstein Kiel)
Saves	9	10
Save %	75%	56%
xG prevented	52%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Heidenheim

Fixtures, form & tips

Holstein Kiel

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel according to our model?

The model gives Holstein Kiel a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heidenheim 36%, draw 28%, Holstein Kiel 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.