Holstein Kiel vs Nürnberg: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

2. Bundesliga5 September 2026Holstein-Stadion, Kiel16°11,4 mm20 km/h

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Holstein KielPossession control

2–2

NürnbergPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Holstein Kiel (41%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.78 (+2 %)

1 · Holstein Kiel 41%X 27%32% Nürnberg · 2

41%

27%

32%

Analysis: Holstein Kiel – Nürnberg

Marcus Johansson · 4 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

A critical statistic for this match is the 41% win probability for Holstein Kiel, slightly ahead of Nürnberg's 32%. This highlights a slight advantage for the hosts despite their lower points tally, with Kiel's expected goals (xG) and expected points (xPoints) numbers also shading Nürnberg. Kiel's possession-based style may find traction against a similar setup from the visitors, but the rain could suppress scoring.

Nürnberg arrives on a hot streak, with three straight victories and a consistent goal-scoring run across eight consecutive matches. However, their defensive vulnerabilities are evident, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.7 per match—higher than Kiel's 1.1. This defensive fragility could be tested by Kiel's offense, which holds a marginal xG edge. The predicted most likely scorelines are tight, with the 1-1 draw emerging as the front-runner at 12%.

Despite a 57% chance for over 2.5 goals, the wet conditions may temper this, hinting towards a lower-scoring affair. The under 3.5 goals market offers no edge, but there's a uniform odds value with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at 1.52. Expect a cautious encounter, with a 1-1 draw the most probable outcome reflecting the balance of form and underlying metrics.

Holstein Kiel

Form LLDDL

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #3xP/match #4Points #17

Key players

Phil HarresFxG 0.86 · xT -0.03
Guillermo BalziRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.09
Hiroki SekineRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.16

Nürnberg

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #5xP/match #8Points #1

Key players

Mohamed Ali ZomaLWxG 0.81 · xT 0.14
Adam MarkhievCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
Piet ScobelFxG 0.41 · xT 0.11

Final score

2 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Holstein Kiel 41% · Draw 27% · Nürnberg 32%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - 1. FC NürnbergBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,60fair 8,94-26 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Holstein KielBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,63fair 8,29-32 %

Miss

Match prediction: Holstein Kiel – Nürnberg

Predicted score matrix

Nürnberg →

Holstein Kiel →

0–05.6%

0–17.2%

0–25.5%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.3%

1–07.5%

1–111.7%

1–28.2%

1–34.0%

1–4+2.0%

2–05.9%

2–18.6%

2–26.2%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.0%

3–14.3%

3–23.1%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,50–1,45

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.30

Over 2,557%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw (1X)64%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw (1X)64%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Phil Harres to score18%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Piet Lasse Scobel to score19%
Tom Baack to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw27% probability@3.78PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
Under 3.566% probability@1.52BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
Under 3.566% probability@1.52BetssonEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Holstein Kiel	X	2 · Nürnberg
Betsafe	2.32	3.40	2.72
Betsson	2.32	3.40	2.72
Nordicbet	2.32	3.40	2.72
Pinnacle	2.29	EV+ 2% 3.78	3.03

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:32

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Holstein Kiel win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.45 to 2.29 (−7%).

1-7 %

44 %39 %

2.45 → 2.29

X+4 %

29 %24 %

3.62 → 3.78

2+10 %

35 %30 %

2.75 → 3.03

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Holstein Kiel 0Draw 1Nürnberg 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

Key facts

1. FC Nurnberg come into this round on 3 straight wins.
1. FC Nurnberg have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Holstein Kiel

Nürnberg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Holstein Kiel (4–6)

Nürnberg (11–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Holstein Kiel

Nürnberg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Holstein Kiel

Nürnberg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Holstein Kiel	Nürnberg
Points	2	9
xPoints	4.9	4.1
xG per match	1.9	1.7
xGA per match	1.1	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.65
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.1

Playing style	Holstein Kiel	Nürnberg
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.28
Field tilt	0.71	0.61
xT per match	1.5	1.3
xTA per match	1.1	0.79
Won balls, offensive half	28	20
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.34	0.36
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.28
Entries into the box per match	13	14
Entries into the box against	9	10
Pass completion %	0.79	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.75
Passes per match	444	398
Passes against per match	280	297
Switches of play per match	19.8	21.7
Long balls per match	26	34

Set pieces	Holstein Kiel	Nürnberg
xG from free kicks	0.26	0
Corners per match	4	3.6
Corners against per match	5.4	5.9
xG per corner	0.05	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.64
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.44

Other	Holstein Kiel	Nürnberg
Throw-in control	0.74	0.73

The goalkeepers	Timon Moritz Weiner (Holstein Kiel)	Jan Reichert (Nürnberg)
Saves	6	9
Save %	50%	75%
xG prevented	38%	67%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Holstein Kiel

Fixtures, form & tips

Nürnberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Holstein Kiel vs Nürnberg according to our model?

The model gives Holstein Kiel a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Holstein Kiel 41%, draw 27%, Nürnberg 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.