01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
2. BundesligaHolstein-Stadion, Kiel25°13 km/h
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Holstein KielPossession control2–2
St. PauliPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Holstein Kiel (41%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.10 (+15 %)
Holstein Kiel – St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga
1 · Holstein Kiel 41%X 28%30% St. Pauli · 2
41%
28%
30%
Analysis: Holstein Kiel – St. Pauli
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The numbers set the stage for a fascinating clash between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga. Holstein Kiel are the slight favorites with a 41% win probability, reflecting their consistent form and control-oriented playstyle. Meanwhile, FC St. Pauli's high press and attacking intent make them a dangerous opponent, but their 30% win likelihood suggests they're the underdogs in this fixture.
Holstein Kiel have a slight edge in expected points (1.8) compared to FC St. Pauli's 1.6. This advantage is mirrored in expected goals against (xGA), where Holstein Kiel boast a more solid defense, conceding an average of just 0.92 xGA per match. On the flip side, FC St. Pauli's offensive potential is underscored by a higher xG per match of 2.1, suggesting they can trouble Holstein Kiel's defense if given the chance.
FC St. Pauli's playstyle centers around a high pressing game, but Holstein Kiel’s ability to generate 0.32 xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball suggests they can exploit gaps in St. Pauli’s aggressive strategy. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 signal a tight match, with the model favoring the latter slightly more for Kiel.
Despite both teams' attacking capabilities, the numbers hint at a lower-scoring affair. The under 2.5 goals market offers intriguing value, especially with Pinnacle's odds of 2.04 showing a 12% edge according to the model. Bold punters might even look to under 1.5 goals, with an 8% edge at odds of 3.75 available at both Betsafe and Betsson.
In essence, while Holstein Kiel are poised to edge this contest, the real value lies in predicting a cagey battle, with under 2.5 goals presenting a sharp betting angle worth considering.
Holstein KielForm WWLLD
League ranking xG #9xGA #5xT #13xP/match #4Points #12
Key players
- Guillermo BalziRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.08
- Jonas MeffertCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
- Hiroki SekineRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
St. PauliForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #2xP/match #5Points #10
Key players
- David NemethRWxG 0.50 · xT 0.14
- Martijn KaarsFxG 0.26 · xT 0.11
- Tomoya AndoCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.14
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Holstein Kiel 41% · Draw 28% · St. Pauli 30%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Holstein KielBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,89fair 11,36-39 %
MissMatchresultat - FC St. PauliBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,12fair 14,52-44 %
MissMatch prediction: Holstein Kiel – St. Pauli
Predicted score matrix
St. Pauli →
Holstein Kiel →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.7%
0–19.4%
0–25.7%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.7%
1–113.2%
1–27.5%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.3%
2–18.4%
2–24.9%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.2%
3–13.7%
3–22.2%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.6%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,32–1,16
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@2.10EV+9%
Over 2,545%
@1.78
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Holstein Kiel or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Phil Harres to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Johannes Eggestein to score33%
- Ivan Nekić to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.555% probability@2.10PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- Under 1.529% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- Under 1.529% probability@3.85BetssonEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Holstein Kiel | X | 2 · St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 2.30 | 3.55 | 3.10 |
| Betsafe | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.78 |
| Betsson | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.78 |
| Nordicbet | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.78 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 2.45 | EV+ 3% 3.67 | 2.84 |
Odds updated 14 Aug, 10:35
Odds movement
10 %
42 %37 %
2.44 → 2.45
X+2 %
29 %24 %
3.61 → 3.67
2+3 %
36 %31 %
2.77 → 2.84
Over 2,5-1 %
56 %51 %
1.80 → 1.78
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 11/08/2026 → 14/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel (2–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Holstein Kiel
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Holstein Kiel
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Holstein Kiel | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 0.92 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Playing style | Holstein Kiel | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.7 |
| xT per match | 0.89 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 0.87 | 0.81 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 6 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 369 | 469 |
| Passes against per match | 378 | 336 |
| Switches of play per match | 12 | 18 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Holstein Kiel | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.2 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 9 |
| Corners against per match | 8 | 2 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.1 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0 | 0.67 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.5 |
| Other | Holstein Kiel | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.88 |
| The goalkeepers | Leon Parduzi (Holstein Kiel) | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | – |
| Save % | 100% | – |
| xG prevented | 100% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Teams & more matches this round
- Eintracht Braunschweig – Bochum14 August 2026
- Osnabrück – Magdeburg15 August 2026
- Kaiserslautern – Karlsruhe15 August 2026
- Greuther Fürth – Nürnberg15 August 2026
- Hertha Berlin – Heidenheim15 August 2026
- Arminia Bielefeld – Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
- Dynamo Dresden – Darmstadt16 August 2026
- Hannover 96 – Wolfsburg16 August 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli according to our model?
The model gives Holstein Kiel a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Holstein Kiel 41%, draw 28%, St. Pauli 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.