Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

2. Bundesliga15 August 2026Sportpark Ronhof, Fürth27°14 km/h

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Greuther FürthCounter-attacks & crosses

2–4

NürnbergPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Nürnberg (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.62 (+20 %)

1 · Greuther Fürth 30%X 30%40% Nürnberg · 2

30%

40%

Analysis: Greuther Fürth – Nürnberg

Anna Karlsson · 13 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

1. FC Nurnberg's recent form, unbeaten in their last six league matches, suggests they are on a promising trajectory heading into their clash with SpVgg Greuther Furth. This streak is not just a random blip; it's backed by solid underlying numbers. 1. FC Nurnberg's xG per match sits at 2.5 compared to Furth's 1.1, and their xGA per match is 1.4 against Furth's 2.1. These numbers paint a picture of a team that not only creates more chances but also defends more solidly. The model probabilities give the edge to Nurnberg at 40%, and this leans heavily into the most likely outcome.

SpVgg Greuther Furth, meanwhile, will look to their counter attacking and crossing game to break down Nurnberg's possession-heavy style. Yet, their head-to-head since 2023 hasn't favored them, with no wins in four matches, albeit this small sample size. While model probabilities show a 30% chance of a draw, and the odds for a draw on Betfair Exchange offer a 17% edge (odds at 3.85), suggesting it might be worth a punt for those inclined to hedge their bets on a stalemate.

The most plausible scorelines of 1-1, 1-2, and 0-1 indicate a tight affair, but with an edge towards Nurnberg. Despite the model's inclination towards a high-scoring game (over 2.5 goals at 54%), the value lies in going against the grain. Betfair Exchange offers under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.62, with a 20% edge, suggesting that fewer goals could indeed be the smart play, especially with adverse weather potentially dampening the attacking flair.

Given the overall stats and trends, a narrow 1-0 victory for 1. FC Nurnberg feels like the direction this game is headed. With value bets on both the draw and the under 2.5 goals, seasoned punters might find this a match where the edge lies not just in picking a winner, but in predicting a tight, low-scoring contest.

Greuther Fürth

Form LDLWD

League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #15xP/match #14Points #9

Key players

Dennis SrbenyFxG 0.24 · xT 0.13
Paul WillCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
Luca ItterLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.12

Nürnberg

Form WDWDW

League ranking xG #4xGA #9xT #4xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Javier Fernandez GonzalezCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.06
Adam MarkhievCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
Finn BeckerCAMxG 0.00 · xT 0.65

Final score

2 – 4

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Greuther Fürth 30% · Draw 30% · Nürnberg 40%

Match prediction: Greuther Fürth – Nürnberg

Predicted score matrix

Nürnberg →

Greuther Fürth →

0–06.1%

0–18.7%

0–27.0%

0–33.6%

0–4+2.0%

1–07.2%

1–112.0%

1–29.0%

1–34.7%

1–4+2.6%

2–04.9%

2–17.6%

2–25.9%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.7%

3–02.1%

3–13.3%

3–22.5%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,30–1,55

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@2.62EV+20%

Over 2,554%

@1.70

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Nürnberg or draw (X2)68%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Nürnberg or draw (X2)68%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Mohamed Ali Zoma to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Mohamed Ali Zoma to score21%
Adam Markhiev to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.546% probability@2.62Betfair ExchangeEV+20%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.85Betfair ExchangeEV+17%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.67PinnacleEV+12%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Greuther Fürth	X	2 · Nürnberg
Betfair Exchange	2.58	EV+ 17% 3.85	EV+ 3% 2.58
Pinnacle	3.23	EV+ 12% 3.67	2.24

Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:19

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Nürnberg win since 9 August — the odds have shortened from 2.58 to 2.24 (−13%).

1+21 %

38 %28 %

2.67 → 3.23

X+5 %

32 %22 %

3.49 → 3.67

2-13 %

45 %35 %

2.58 → 2.24

Over 2,50 %

62 %52 %

1.70 → 1.70

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 09/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Greuther Fürth 0Draw 2Nürnberg 2

Goals: 3–10 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on 2. Bundesliga data since 2023.

Key facts

1. FC Nurnberg are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Greuther Fürth

Nürnberg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Greuther Fürth (1–1)

Nürnberg (3–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Greuther Fürth

Nürnberg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Greuther Fürth

Nürnberg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Greuther Fürth	Nürnberg
Points	1	3
xPoints	1.1	2
xG per match	1.1	2.5
xGA per match	2.1	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.73
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0	0.04

Playing style	Greuther Fürth	Nürnberg
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.28
Field tilt	0.3	0.63
xT per match	0.81	1.3
xTA per match	1.5	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	9	27
Pressing intensity	0.27	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.28
Entries into the box per match	9	17
Entries into the box against	18	9
Pass completion %	0.79	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.83	0.74
Passes per match	336	431
Passes against per match	469	312
Switches of play per match	20.9	20.9
Long balls per match	27	38

Set pieces	Greuther Fürth	Nürnberg
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	2	5
Corners against per match	9	5
xG per corner	0	0
xGA per corner against	0.1	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.6
First touch, defensive corners %	0.33	0.4

Other	Greuther Fürth	Nürnberg
Throw-in control	0.83	0.73

The goalkeepers	Florian Pascal Hellstern (Greuther Fürth)	Eric Porstner (Nürnberg)
Saves	5	1
Save %	83%	100%
xG prevented	83%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Greuther Fürth

Fixtures, form & tips

Nürnberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Greuther Fürth vs Nürnberg according to our model?

The model gives Nürnberg a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Greuther Fürth 30%, draw 30%, Nürnberg 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.