Greuther Fürth vs Heidenheim: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

2. Bundesliga6 September 2026Sportpark Ronhof, Fürth17°5 km/h

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Greuther FürthCounter-attacks & crosses

HeidenheimPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Heidenheim (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.70 (+14 %)

1 · Greuther Fürth 35%X 29%36% Heidenheim · 2

35%

29%

36%

Analysis: Greuther Fürth – Heidenheim

Erik Lindberg · 1 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The narrow 36% edge the model gives Heidenheim over Greuther Fürth reflects the tight nature of this matchup. Both teams have nearly identical expected goals, with Heidenheim at 1.46 and Fürth at 1.44, pointing to a balanced contest despite the visitor's slight statistical edge in possession control. The most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, suggesting a closely fought encounter with both sides likely to find the net.

Heidenheim's possession-based style contrasts sharply with Fürth's counter-attacking approach. The hosts have managed to score in their last eight league matches, indicating a consistent ability to create and convert chances. However, their 4 points compared to Heidenheim's 6 in the league standings tilts the form advantage slightly towards the visitors. Despite this, Fürth's 5.1 xPoints edge over Heidenheim's 4.1 suggests they might be underperforming their expected returns.

The over 2.5 goals has a 55% probability while both teams scoring is at 59%, indicating a lean towards a higher-scoring game. The Heidenheim edge is also reflected in their superior xG within 8 seconds of ball recovery (0.43 versus 0.22). With Heidenheim's odds marginally tipped, finding value might lie in backing the visitors at bookmakers offering odds close to evens.

Greuther Fürth

Form LWDLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #13xT #14xP/match #3Points #7

Key players

Felix KlausFxG 1.27 · xT 0.20
Dennis SrbenyFxG 0.09 · xT 0.01
Luca ItterLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.09

Heidenheim

Form WLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #8xP/match #12Points #4

Key players

Marvin PieringerFxG 0.22 · xT -0.04
Marcel CostlyRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.17
Budu ZivzivadzeFxG 0.15 · xT -0.03

Match prediction: Greuther Fürth – Heidenheim

Predicted score matrix

Heidenheim →

Greuther Fürth →

0–05.8%

0–17.7%

0–25.9%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.5%

1–07.6%

1–111.9%

1–28.5%

1–34.1%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.7%

2–18.3%

2–26.1%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.5%

3–02.7%

3–14.0%

3–22.9%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.3%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,44–1,46

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

–

Over 2,555%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Heidenheim or draw (X2)63%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Heidenheim or draw (X2)63%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Marvin Pieringer to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Felix Klaus to score28%
Paul Will to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.567% probability@1.70PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@3.85Betfair ExchangeEV+13%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@3.80PinnacleEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Greuther Fürth	X	2 · Heidenheim
Betfair Exchange	2.58	EV+ 13% 3.85	2.58
Pinnacle	EV+ 4% 2.95	EV+ 11% 3.80	2.24

Odds updated 4 Sept, 12:29

Odds movement

10 %

35 %30 %

2.94 → 2.95

X+2 %

28 %23 %

3.72 → 3.80

2-1 %

45 %40 %

2.27 → 2.24

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

SpVgg Greuther Furth have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Greuther Fürth

Heidenheim

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Greuther Fürth (7–8)

Heidenheim (10–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Greuther Fürth

Heidenheim

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Greuther Fürth

Heidenheim

The teams in numbers

Performance	Greuther Fürth	Heidenheim
Points	4	6
xPoints	5.1	4.1
xG per match	1.9	1.9
xGA per match	1.8	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.43
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.18

Playing style	Greuther Fürth	Heidenheim
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.32	0.41
xT per match	0.84	1.1
xTA per match	1.7	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	18	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.31
Entries into the box per match	10	15
Entries into the box against	19	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.66
Passes per match	305	293
Passes against per match	405	341
Switches of play per match	25.4	35.2
Long balls per match	32	47

Set pieces	Greuther Fürth	Heidenheim
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.09
Corners per match	4.2	4.3
Corners against per match	7.2	6.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.55

Other	Greuther Fürth	Heidenheim
Throw-in control	0.72	0.79

The goalkeepers	Florian Pascal Hellstern (Greuther Fürth)	Frank Feller (Heidenheim)
Saves	14	7
Save %	64%	50%
xG prevented	61%	35%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Greuther Fürth vs Heidenheim according to our model?

The model gives Heidenheim a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Greuther Fürth 35%, draw 29%, Heidenheim 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.