BundesligaRheinEnergieStadion, Köln19°12 km/h

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    FC KölnFC KölnLow block & direct
    vs
    Werder BremenWerder BremenBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · FC Köln (39%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.47 (+17 %)

    FC Köln – Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

    1 · FC Köln 39%X 30%31% Werder Bremen · 2

    Analysis: FC Köln – Werder Bremen

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    A key number emerges: FC Köln have scored in 12 consecutive league matches. This suggests a level of reliability in attack, even as they face a Werder Bremen side known for its physical approach. Although the hosts have shown vulnerability with an average xGA of 2.1 per match, their offensive xG of 2.2 suggests they can create opportunities. In contrast, the visitors have a lower xG per match at 0.74, indicating potential struggles to find the net.

    The head-to-head record is limited, with just two games since 2022 where Köln came out unbeaten. So, while it leans slightly in the home side's favor, it's less relevant than current form and expected goals. Probabilities suggest a narrow edge for Köln with a likely 1-1 or 1-0 outcome. However, the over 2.5 goals probability at 53% tempers any certainty of a low-scoring affair.

    For those seeking value, the under 2.5 goals market stands out. With a 47% model rating against odds of 2.47 on Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, this offers a 17% edge, making it an enticing proposition for those less swayed by the allure of a potentially goal-heavy game.

    FC KölnFC Köln
    Form DLLWL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #12xT #12xP/match #6Points #8
    Key players
    • Tom KraußCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.04
    • Isak JohannessonFxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
    • Alessio Castro MontesRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
    Werder BremenWerder Bremen
    Form LLLLW
    League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #18xP/match #10Points #9
    Key players
    • Marco GrüllFxG 0.20 · xT 0.06
    • Olivier DemanLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
    • Iván San José CantalejoFxG 0.07 · xT 0.10

    Match prediction: FC Köln – Werder Bremen

    Predicted score matrix

    Werder Bremen →
    FC Köln →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.5%
    0–17.2%
    0–24.6%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–09.3%
    1–112.1%
    1–27.2%
    1–32.9%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–07.6%
    2–19.2%
    2–25.6%
    2–32.3%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–04.0%
    3–14.8%
    3–22.9%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–21.6%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.2-08%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,57–1,22
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.47EV+17%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.56

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance FC Köln or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.82

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance FC Köln or draw (1X)71%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Ragnar Prince Friedel Ache to score23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Ragnar Prince Friedel Ache to score23%
    • Karim Coulibaly to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.547% probability@2.47BetsafeEV+17%reference odds
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.47BetssonEV+17%reference odds
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.47NordicbetEV+17%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FC KölnX2 · Werder Bremen
    Betsafe2.10
    EV+ 6%
    3.55
    EV+ 0%
    3.20
    Betsson2.10
    EV+ 7%
    3.60
    EV+ 0%
    3.20
    Nordicbet2.10
    EV+ 6%
    3.55
    EV+ 0%
    3.20
    Pinnacle2.11
    EV+ 11%
    3.72
    EV+ 6%
    3.39

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:38

    Odds movement

    1+4 %
    49 %44 %

    2.03 → 2.11

    X0 %
    28 %23 %

    3.72 → 3.72

    20 %
    31 %26 %

    3.39 → 3.39

    Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    FC Köln 1Draw 1Werder Bremen 0
    Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • FC Koln have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    FC Köln
    Werder Bremen
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    FC Köln (4–6)
    Werder Bremen (4–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    FC Köln
    Luka Lochoshvili: 78 passningar, xT 0.03LochoshviliMarvin Schwäbe: 70 passningar, xT 0.18SchwäbeJahmai Simpson-Pusey: 69 passningar, xT 0.01Simpson-PuseyGideon Mensah: 65 passningar, xT 0.17MensahTom Krauß: 55 passningar, xT 0.08KraußIsak Johannesson: 49 passningar, xT 0.2JohannessonAlessio Castro Montes: 46 passningar, xT 0.06MontesPaul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler: 41 passningar, xT 0.01Okon-EngstlerLinton Maina: 28 passningar, xT 0.16MainaEllyes Joris Skhiri: 27 passningar, xT 0.08SkhiriJan Thielmann: 20 passningar, xT 0.02Thielmann
    Werder Bremen
    Marco Friedl: 88 passningar, xT 0.08FriedlAmos Pieper: 83 passningar, xT 0.14PieperOlivier Deman: 68 passningar, xT 0.15DemanKarl Hein: 53 passningar, xT 0.01HeinLudovit Reis: 46 passningar, xT -0.01ReisMarco Grüll: 36 passningar, xT 0.07GrüllMick Schmetgens: 35 passningar, xT 0.05SchmetgensIván San José Cantalejo: 33 passningar, xT 0.17CantalejoArthur Augusto de Matos Soares: 26 passningar, xT 0.08SoaresNiclas Füllkrug: 23 passningar, xT -0.03FüllkrugYouri Pieter Regeer: 22 passningar, xT -0.09Regeer
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    FC Köln
    Luka Lochoshvili: 78 passningar, xT 0.03LochoshviliMarvin Schwäbe: 70 passningar, xT 0.18SchwäbeJahmai Simpson-Pusey: 69 passningar, xT 0.01Simpson-PuseyGideon Mensah: 65 passningar, xT 0.17MensahTom Krauß: 55 passningar, xT 0.08KraußIsak Johannesson: 49 passningar, xT 0.2JohannessonAlessio Castro Montes: 46 passningar, xT 0.06MontesPaul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler: 41 passningar, xT 0.01Okon-EngstlerLinton Maina: 28 passningar, xT 0.16MainaEllyes Joris Skhiri: 27 passningar, xT 0.08SkhiriJan Thielmann: 20 passningar, xT 0.02Thielmann
    Werder Bremen
    Marco Friedl: 88 passningar, xT 0.08FriedlAmos Pieper: 83 passningar, xT 0.14PieperOlivier Deman: 68 passningar, xT 0.15DemanKarl Hein: 53 passningar, xT 0.01HeinLudovit Reis: 46 passningar, xT -0.01ReisMarco Grüll: 36 passningar, xT 0.07GrüllMick Schmetgens: 35 passningar, xT 0.05SchmetgensIván San José Cantalejo: 33 passningar, xT 0.17CantalejoArthur Augusto de Matos Soares: 26 passningar, xT 0.08SoaresNiclas Füllkrug: 23 passningar, xT -0.03FüllkrugYouri Pieter Regeer: 22 passningar, xT -0.09Regeer

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFC KölnWerder Bremen
    Points33
    xPoints3.72.6
    xG per match2.20.74
    xGA per match2.11.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.260.27
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.180.32
    Playing styleFC KölnWerder Bremen
    Build-up efficiency0.350.3
    Field tilt0.290.26
    xT per match0.950.38
    xTA per match1.81.2
    Won balls, offensive half1725
    Pressing intensity0.270.23
    Pressing efficiency0.250.24
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.150.14
    Entries into the box per match106
    Entries into the box against2315
    Pass completion %0.750.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.73
    Passes per match300291
    Passes against per match448519
    Switches of play per match24.125.3
    Long balls per match3432
    Set piecesFC KölnWerder Bremen
    xG from free kicks00.05
    Corners per match73.5
    Corners against per match8.56.5
    xG per corner0.070.03
    xGA per corner against0.050.07
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.410.62
    OtherFC KölnWerder Bremen
    Throw-in control0.730.77
    The goalkeepersMarvin Schwäbe (FC Köln)Karl Hein (Werder Bremen)
    Saves64
    Save %50%44%
    xG prevented69%17%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    FC Köln
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Werder Bremen
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins FC Köln vs Werder Bremen according to our model?

    The model gives FC Köln a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Köln 39%, draw 30%, Werder Bremen 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.