Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Bundesliga5 September 2026BayArena, Leverkusen18°19 km/h

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Bayer LeverkusenPossession & high press

4–0

Union BerlinCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Bayer Leverkusen (69%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.87 (+9 %)

1 · Bayer Leverkusen 69%X 17%13% Union Berlin · 2

69%

17%

13%

Analysis: Bayer Leverkusen – Union Berlin

Marcus Johansson · 4 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Bayer Leverkusen's 69% win probability indicates a strong lean towards the hosts, bolstered by their possession-based approach and high press. They score consistently, netting in 13 straight league games. Meanwhile, Union Berlin, relying on counter-attacks and crosses, have also been productive, scoring in their last 8 matches. However, their 13% win probability underscores the hosts' favored status.

Despite Union Berlin's slight edge in xPoints and xG per match, the head-to-head data since 2022, though limited, shows a minor advantage for the home side with two wins, one draw, and one loss. Leverkusen's historical win rate of 56% at home supports this narrative. The expected goals model, favoring the hosts at 2.35 against 0.94 for the visitors, aligns with the most likely scorelines of 2-0 or 2-1 in favor of Leverkusen.

The over 2.5 goals probability at 64% suggests a fairly open game, though there's a standout betting angle in the under 3.5 market. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offering odds of 1.78, an EV+ opportunity appears, rated at 58% by the model, providing a 4% edge. This option captures value in a match expected to see goals, but not excessively so.

Bayer Leverkusen

Form WWLDL

League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #2xP/match #14Points #13

Key players

Patrik SchickFxG 0.62 · xT -0.09
Miguel Gutiérrez OrtegaLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.42
Edmond TapsobaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

Union Berlin

Form LDWWD

League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #8xP/match #7Points #10

Key players

Leopold QuerfeldCMxG 0.20 · xT 0.11
Josip JuranovicRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
Zeno Van den BoschCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

Final score

4 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 69% · Draw 17% · Union Berlin 13%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Bayer LeverkusenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,42fair 4,23-19 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Union BerlinBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 14,65fair 27,06-46 %

Miss

Match prediction: Bayer Leverkusen – Union Berlin

Predicted score matrix

Union Berlin →

Bayer Leverkusen →

0–04.0%

0–13.3%

0–21.6%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–08.5%

1–18.5%

1–23.9%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–010.3%

2–19.7%

2–24.5%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–08.1%

3–17.6%

3–23.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–08.3%

4+–17.8%

4+–23.6%

4+–31.1%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-18%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,35–0,94

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.84EV+3%

Over 2,564%

@1.44

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bayer Leverkusen to win69%
Over 1.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bayer Leverkusen to win69%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Patrik Schick to score37%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Patrik Schick to score37%
Aljoscha Kemlein to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 3.558% probability@1.87PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
1 · Bayer Leverkusen69% probability@1.50Bet365EV+4%reference odds
Under 3.558% probability@1.78BetsafeEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bayer Leverkusen	X	2 · Union Berlin
Bet365	EV+ 4% 1.50	4.33	5.50
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 1.45	4.50	6.30
Betsson	EV+ 1% 1.46	4.55	6.30
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 1.45	4.50	6.30
Pinnacle	1.42	5.30	6.90

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Bayer Leverkusen win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 1.46 to 1.42 (−3%).

1-3 %

69 %64 %

1.46 → 1.42

X+9 %

21 %16 %

4.86 → 5.30

2+16 %

18 %13 %

5.93 → 6.90

Pinnacle · 21 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Bayer Leverkusen 2Draw 1Union Berlin 1

Goals: 4–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
Union Berlin have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Bayer Leverkusen win 56% of their home matches all-time (34 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bayer Leverkusen

Union Berlin

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bayer Leverkusen (2–3)

Union Berlin (3–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bayer Leverkusen

Union Berlin

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bayer Leverkusen

Union Berlin

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin
Points	0	1
xPoints	0.7	2
xG per match	1.8	2.2
xGA per match	1.6	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.87	0.5

Playing style	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.78	0.44
xT per match	2	1.6
xTA per match	0.75	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	29	36
Pressing intensity	0.18	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.49	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.41	0.29
Entries into the box per match	24	19
Entries into the box against	9	15
Pass completion %	0.82	0.62
Pass completion % under pressure	0.78	0.52
Passes per match	524	248
Passes against per match	211	299
Switches of play per match	24.7	28.4
Long balls per match	28	35

Set pieces	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.03
Corners per match	3	4.7
Corners against per match	4	1.9
xG per corner	0.07	0.06
xGA per corner against	0	0.09
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.8
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.5

Other	Bayer Leverkusen	Union Berlin
Throw-in control	0.79	0.7

The goalkeepers	Mark Flekken (Bayer Leverkusen)	Leopold Querfeld (Union Berlin)
Saves	3	2
Save %	50%	100%
xG prevented	38%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bayer Leverkusen

Fixtures, form & tips

Union Berlin

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin according to our model?

The model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 69% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bayer Leverkusen 69%, draw 17%, Union Berlin 13%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.