BundesligaAllianz Arena, München22°5,1 mm24 km/h

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    Bayern MünchenBayern MünchenPossession & high press
    vs
    StuttgartStuttgartPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Bayern München (72%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 4.57 (+23 %)

    Bayern München – Stuttgart · Bundesliga

    1 · Bayern München 72%X 16%11% Stuttgart · 2

    Analysis: Bayern München – Stuttgart

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Two key numbers define Bayern München’s dominance: an 82% home win rate and a 15-match unbeaten streak. This suggests formidable control, especially when hosting a Stuttgart side that has never defeated them in their last four meetings since 2022. The hosts not only have a history of winning but consistently find the net, scoring in 46 consecutive league fixtures. With expected goals of 2.85, Bayern's offensive prowess appears primed to continue.

    Stuttgart's task grows more daunting when considering both teams employ similar playing strategies: possession and high press. However, Bayern’s execution is superior, reflected in their higher xG (2.5 vs. 1.8) and lower xGA (1.1 vs. 1.6). Despite Stuttgart's respectable efforts, they remain underdogs with just an 11% win probability. Meanwhile, the model suggests the most likely scorelines — 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 — all favor the Bundesliga giants.

    The weather injects uncertainty with 6.6 mm of rain, but even this is factored into the model’s 73% over 2.5 goals prediction. Yet, for those seeking overlooked value, consider the under 2.5 market. At odds of 4.19 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a compelling 13% edge, should Bayern’s efficiency face unexpected resistance.

    Bayern MünchenBayern München
    Form WWDWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
    Key players
    • Nicolas JacksonFxG 0.45 · xT 0.05
    • Michael OliseRWxG 0.45 · xT 0.42
    • Luis DiazLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.11
    StuttgartStuttgart
    Form LDDWD
    League ranking xG #3xGA #13xT #2xP/match #10Points #4
    Key players
    • Deniz UndavFxG 0.64 · xT 0.10
    • Chris FuhrichLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.37
    • Ermedin DemirovićFxG 0.40 · xT 0.02

    Match prediction: Bayern München – Stuttgart

    Predicted score matrix

    Stuttgart →
    Bayern München →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–02.4%
    0–12.0%
    0–21.0%
    0–30.3%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–06.2%
    1–16.3%
    1–22.9%
    1–30.9%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–09.1%
    2–18.6%
    2–24.1%
    2–31.3%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–08.6%
    3–18.2%
    3–23.9%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–012.3%
    4+–111.7%
    4+–25.6%
    4+–31.8%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-09%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.3-09%
    4. 4.3-18%
    5. 5.1-16%
    Expected goals
    2,85–0,95
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,8
    Under 2,527%
    @4.57EV+23%
    Over 2,573%
    @1.21

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Bayern München to win72%
    • Over 1.5 goals89%

    Combined probability

    70%

    Fair odds

    1.43

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Bayern München to win72%
    • Over 2.5 goals73%
    • Luis Fernando Díaz Marulanda to score33%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals73%
    • Luis Fernando Díaz Marulanda to score33%
    • Julian Jeffrey Gaston Chabot to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.527% probability@4.57BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
    • Under 2.527% probability@4.57BetssonEV+23%reference odds
    • Under 2.527% probability@4.57NordicbetEV+23%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Bayern MünchenX2 · Stuttgart
    Betsafe1.22
    EV+ 7%
    6.50
    EV+ 20%
    10.50
    Betsson1.22
    EV+ 8%
    6.60
    EV+ 20%
    10.50
    Nordicbet1.22
    EV+ 7%
    6.50
    EV+ 20%
    10.50
    Pinnacle1.24
    EV+ 16%
    7.05
    EV+ 13%
    9.89

    Odds updated 27 Aug, 23:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Bayern München win since 21 August — the odds have shortened from 1.29 to 1.24 (−4%).

    1-4 %
    77 %72 %

    1.29 → 1.24

    X+16 %
    17 %12 %

    6.06 → 7.05

    2+26 %
    13 %8 %

    7.85 → 9.89

    Pinnacle · 19 recorded price levels · 21/08/2026 → 27/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Bayern München 4Draw 0Stuttgart 0
    Goals: 16–3 (⌀ 4,8)

    Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • FC Bayern Munich are unbeaten in their last 15 league matches.
    • FC Bayern Munich have scored in 46 consecutive league matches.
    • FC Bayern Munich win 82% of their home matches all-time (34 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Bayern München
    Stuttgart
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2025
    Bayern München (122–36)
    Stuttgart (71–49)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Bayern München
    Joshua Kimmich: 369 passningar, xT 1.15KimmichMin-jae Kim: 301 passningar, xT 0.35KimHiroki Ito: 276 passningar, xT 0.56ItoLeon Goretzka: 238 passningar, xT 0.02GoretzkaKonrad Laimer: 218 passningar, xT 0.43LaimerMichael Olise: 186 passningar, xT 1.33OliseJosip Stanisic: 179 passningar, xT 0.64StanisicJonathan Tah: 177 passningar, xT 0.23TahTom Bischof: 154 passningar, xT 0.19BischofJonas Kurt Urbig: 136 passningar, xT 0.2UrbigDayot Upamecano: 130 passningar, xT 0.24Upamecano
    Stuttgart
    Angelo Stiller: 255 passningar, xT 0.38StillerMaximilian Mittelstädt: 178 passningar, xT 0.31MittelstädtLuca Jaquez: 168 passningar, xT 0.22JaquezRamon Hendriks: 166 passningar, xT 0.15HendriksChris Fuhrich: 131 passningar, xT 1.17FuhrichJeff Chabot: 126 passningar, xT 0.22ChabotAlexander Nübel: 120 passningar, xT 0.2NübelJamie Leweling: 110 passningar, xT 0.59LewelingBilal El Khannouss: 108 passningar, xT 0.54KhannoussChema Andres: 106 passningar, xT 0AndresDeniz Undav: 74 passningar, xT 0.31Undav
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Bayern München
    Joshua Kimmich: 369 passningar, xT 1.15KimmichMin-jae Kim: 301 passningar, xT 0.35KimHiroki Ito: 276 passningar, xT 0.56ItoLeon Goretzka: 238 passningar, xT 0.02GoretzkaKonrad Laimer: 218 passningar, xT 0.43LaimerMichael Olise: 186 passningar, xT 1.33OliseJosip Stanisic: 179 passningar, xT 0.64StanisicJonathan Tah: 177 passningar, xT 0.23TahTom Bischof: 154 passningar, xT 0.19BischofJonas Kurt Urbig: 136 passningar, xT 0.2UrbigDayot Upamecano: 130 passningar, xT 0.24Upamecano
    Stuttgart
    Angelo Stiller: 255 passningar, xT 0.38StillerMaximilian Mittelstädt: 178 passningar, xT 0.31MittelstädtLuca Jaquez: 168 passningar, xT 0.22JaquezRamon Hendriks: 166 passningar, xT 0.15HendriksChris Fuhrich: 131 passningar, xT 1.17FuhrichJeff Chabot: 126 passningar, xT 0.22ChabotAlexander Nübel: 120 passningar, xT 0.2NübelJamie Leweling: 110 passningar, xT 0.59LewelingBilal El Khannouss: 108 passningar, xT 0.54KhannoussChema Andres: 106 passningar, xT 0AndresDeniz Undav: 74 passningar, xT 0.31Undav

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceBayern MünchenStuttgart
    Points8962
    xPoints58.344.8
    xG per match2.51.8
    xGA per match1.11.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.40.22
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.180.24
    Playing styleBayern MünchenStuttgart
    Build-up efficiency0.370.31
    Field tilt0.80.61
    xT per match1.61.3
    xTA per match0.750.85
    Won balls, offensive half2627
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.30.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.340.34
    Entries into the box per match2015
    Entries into the box against912
    Pass completion %0.860.8
    Pass completion % under pressure0.820.74
    Passes per match637448
    Passes against per match268310
    Switches of play per match36.923.3
    Long balls per match3828
    Set piecesBayern MünchenStuttgart
    xG from free kicks0.110.04
    Corners per match6.35.7
    Corners against per match3.54.3
    xG per corner0.060.06
    xGA per corner against0.060.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.420.42
    First touch, defensive corners %0.630.6
    OtherBayern MünchenStuttgart
    Throw-in control0.790.75
    The goalkeepersJonas Kurt Urbig (Bayern München)Alexander Nübel (Stuttgart)
    Saves33111
    Save %69%70%
    xG prevented47%39%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Bayern München vs Stuttgart according to our model?

    The model gives Bayern München a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bayern München 72%, draw 16%, Stuttgart 11%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 9% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and under at 27%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.