BundesligaVolksparkstadion, Hamburg13°5,4 mm18 km/h

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    Hamburger SVHamburger SVCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    FC KölnFC KölnLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Hamburger SV (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.60 (+6 %)

    Hamburger SV – FC Köln · Bundesliga

    1 · Hamburger SV 38%X 29%33% FC Köln · 2

    Analysis: Hamburger SV – FC Köln

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    The odds figure "Bet365 offers 1.85 for both teams to score" is not supported by any fact provided. I will correct minimally.

    TEXT (corrected):

    Two encounters since 2022 show a small sample where FC Köln edges Hamburger SV with a win and a draw. Yet, the numbers beneath the surface reveal a disparity more reflective of the visitors' dominance than the raw results suggest. Köln's xG of 2.2 per match against the hosts' 0.46 paints a picture of offensive power, while their xGA advantage hints at defensive resilience, albeit a modest one.

    Hamburger SV, despite their counter-attacking prowess and reliance on crosses, face a stern test from a Köln side noted for a direct style and defensive organization. The model probabilities give HSV a slight edge with a 38% chance compared to Köln's 33%. However, this does not fully account for Köln's 12-game scoring streak in the league, an ominous sign for any defense.

    The expected goals tally, HSV at 1.53 and Köln at 1.40, suggests a tight contest. This aligns with the most likely scoreline predictions: 1-1 (12%) seems the safest bet, with a slight nod towards a 2-1 win for the hosts (9%). With a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals, the numbers tilt towards a match that could see the net bulge on multiple occasions, though caution is advised given the style clash.

    Amidst all this, the sharpest angle emerges from the value in the odds. Both teams to score is priced in line with the 59% model prediction. While the head-to-head leans towards Köln, the model's nod to HSV and the potential for goals make this market the one to watch.

    Hamburger SVHamburger SV
    Form WWDLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #15xT #13xP/match #18Points #18
    Key players
    • Nicolai RembergCAMxG 0.00 · xT -0.01
    • Albert Grønbæk ErlykkeLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
    • Nicolas CapaldoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.18
    FC KölnFC Köln
    Form DLLWL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #12xT #12xP/match #6Points #8
    Key players
    • Tom KraußCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.04
    • Isak JohannessonFxG 0.07 · xT 0.11
    • Alessio Castro MontesRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

    Match prediction: Hamburger SV – FC Köln

    Predicted score matrix

    FC Köln →
    Hamburger SV →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.7%
    0–17.1%
    0–25.2%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–07.8%
    1–111.8%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.7%
    1–4+1.8%
    2
    2–06.3%
    2–18.8%
    2–26.1%
    2–32.9%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–14.5%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.7%
    4+
    4+–01.7%
    4+–12.4%
    4+–21.7%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.0-17%
    Expected goals
    1,53–1,40
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @2.36EV+4%
    Over 2,556%
    @1.60

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Hamburger SV or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Hamburger SV or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Robert-Nesta Glatzel to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Robert-Nesta Glatzel to score22%
    • Tom Krauß to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw29% probability@3.60BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.55BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • X · Draw29% probability@3.55NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Hamburger SVX2 · FC Köln
    Betsafe2.48
    EV+ 4%
    3.55    		2.58
    Betsson2.50
    EV+ 6%
    3.60    		2.60
    Nordicbet2.48
    EV+ 4%
    3.55    		2.58
    Pinnacle2.53
    EV+ 4%
    3.53    		2.67

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:38

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Hamburger SV 0Draw 1FC Köln 1
    Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • FC Koln have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hamburger SV
    FC Köln
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Hamburger SV (0–7)
    FC Köln (4–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Hamburger SV
    Daniel Heuer Fernandes: 101 passningar, xT 0.18FernandesNicolai Remberg: 84 passningar, xT -0.04RembergSebastiaan Bornauw: 75 passningar, xT 0.54BornauwJordan Torunarigha: 62 passningar, xT 0.1TorunarighaAlbert Sambi Lokonga: 58 passningar, xT 0.21LokongaNicolas Capaldo: 57 passningar, xT 0.34CapaldoAlbert Grønbæk Erlykke: 45 passningar, xT 0.12ErlykkeZakaria El Ouahdi: 35 passningar, xT 0.01OuahdiBakery Jatta: 34 passningar, xT 0.02JattaBilal Nadir: 30 passningar, xT 0.01NadirMartin Gabriel Belaïd Adeline: 26 passningar, xT 0.12Adeline
    FC Köln
    Luka Lochoshvili: 78 passningar, xT 0.03LochoshviliMarvin Schwäbe: 70 passningar, xT 0.18SchwäbeJahmai Simpson-Pusey: 69 passningar, xT 0.01Simpson-PuseyGideon Mensah: 65 passningar, xT 0.17MensahTom Krauß: 55 passningar, xT 0.08KraußIsak Johannesson: 49 passningar, xT 0.2JohannessonAlessio Castro Montes: 46 passningar, xT 0.06MontesPaul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler: 41 passningar, xT 0.01Okon-EngstlerLinton Maina: 28 passningar, xT 0.16MainaEllyes Joris Skhiri: 27 passningar, xT 0.08SkhiriJan Thielmann: 20 passningar, xT 0.02Thielmann
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Hamburger SV
    Daniel Heuer Fernandes: 101 passningar, xT 0.18FernandesNicolai Remberg: 84 passningar, xT -0.04RembergSebastiaan Bornauw: 75 passningar, xT 0.54BornauwJordan Torunarigha: 62 passningar, xT 0.1TorunarighaAlbert Sambi Lokonga: 58 passningar, xT 0.21LokongaNicolas Capaldo: 57 passningar, xT 0.34CapaldoAlbert Grønbæk Erlykke: 45 passningar, xT 0.12ErlykkeZakaria El Ouahdi: 35 passningar, xT 0.01OuahdiBakery Jatta: 34 passningar, xT 0.02JattaBilal Nadir: 30 passningar, xT 0.01NadirMartin Gabriel Belaïd Adeline: 26 passningar, xT 0.12Adeline
    FC Köln
    Luka Lochoshvili: 78 passningar, xT 0.03LochoshviliMarvin Schwäbe: 70 passningar, xT 0.18SchwäbeJahmai Simpson-Pusey: 69 passningar, xT 0.01Simpson-PuseyGideon Mensah: 65 passningar, xT 0.17MensahTom Krauß: 55 passningar, xT 0.08KraußIsak Johannesson: 49 passningar, xT 0.2JohannessonAlessio Castro Montes: 46 passningar, xT 0.06MontesPaul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler: 41 passningar, xT 0.01Okon-EngstlerLinton Maina: 28 passningar, xT 0.16MainaEllyes Joris Skhiri: 27 passningar, xT 0.08SkhiriJan Thielmann: 20 passningar, xT 0.02Thielmann

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceHamburger SVFC Köln
    Points03
    xPoints0.63.7
    xG per match0.462.2
    xGA per match2.52.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.250.26
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.950.18
    Playing styleHamburger SVFC Köln
    Build-up efficiency0.30.35
    Field tilt0.380.29
    xT per match0.940.95
    xTA per match1.61.8
    Won balls, offensive half1917
    Pressing intensity0.210.27
    Pressing efficiency0.240.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.15
    Entries into the box per match910
    Entries into the box against1923
    Pass completion %0.770.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.76
    Passes per match355300
    Passes against per match387448
    Switches of play per match15.324.1
    Long balls per match2434
    Set piecesHamburger SVFC Köln
    xG from free kicks0.040
    Corners per match2.57
    Corners against per match4.18.5
    xG per corner00.07
    xGA per corner against0.010.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.20.29
    First touch, defensive corners %0.250.41
    OtherHamburger SVFC Köln
    Throw-in control0.850.73
    The goalkeepersDaniel Heuer Fernandes (Hamburger SV)Marvin Schwäbe (FC Köln)
    Saves86
    Save %57%50%
    xG prevented24%69%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Hamburger SV
    Fixtures, form & tips
    FC Köln
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Hamburger SV vs FC Köln according to our model?

    The model gives Hamburger SV a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hamburger SV 38%, draw 29%, FC Köln 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.