RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Bundesliga29 August 2026Red Bull Arena, Leipzig20°0,1 mm18 km/h

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RB LeipzigPossession & high press

Borussia MönchengladbachBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · RB Leipzig (66%)

1 · RB Leipzig 66%X 19%15% Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2

66%

19%

15%

Analysis: RB Leipzig – Borussia Mönchengladbach

Oscar Nilsson · 25 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

RB Leipzig's attack has been relentless, scoring in eight consecutive league fixtures. This consistency up front reflects their strong form, further emphasized by a formidable home win rate of 59% in their last 34 matches. Their playing style, a blend of possession and high pressing, often overwhelms opponents, evident from their 2.22 expected goals per game. In contrast, Borussia Mönchengladbach's balanced and physical approach hasn't quite matched Leipzig's intensity this season.

Despite the hosts' recent prowess, head-to-head encounters paint a more balanced picture; the small sample size shows one win each and two draws since 2022. However, these past skirmishes weigh less than current form and expected goals. Leipzig's superior xG and xPoints metrics this season underline their edge, suggesting they’re well-positioned to tilt the balance in their favor.

The model suggests a 66% win probability for Leipzig, with the most likely scoreline being a 2-1 home victory. With a 64% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood for both teams to score, an open game is anticipated. Gladbach's average of 1.4 xG per match implies they won't go quietly, yet they may struggle to match Leipzig's offensive firepower.

For sharp bettors, value emerges in the odds for a Leipzig win, available at 1.55 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates this outcome with a 66% likelihood, offering a modest 2% edge. While guarantees are elusive in football betting, market mispricings like these can tip the scales in favor of astute punters. As Leipzig look to capitalize on their attacking momentum, backing them at these odds appears to be the sharp play.

RB Leipzig

Form WWLWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #5xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

David RaumLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.28
Assan OuedraogoFxG 0.23 · xT 0.08
Yan DiomandeRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.28

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Form DDWLW

League ranking xG #11xGA #10xT #11xP/match #9Points #12

Key players

Rocco ReitzRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
Haris TabakovicFxG 0.46 · xT 0.03
Nico ElvediCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: RB Leipzig – Borussia Mönchengladbach

Predicted score matrix

Borussia Mönchengladbach →

RB Leipzig →

0–03.9%

0–13.7%

0–22.2%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.3%

1–07.8%

1–19.1%

1–24.8%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–08.9%

2–19.8%

2–25.4%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–06.6%

3–17.3%

3–24.0%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.5%

4+–06.2%

4+–16.8%

4+–23.7%

4+–31.4%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-09%
4.1-08%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,22–1,10

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,3

112%

220%

322%

418%

5+24%

Under 2,536%

@2.71

Over 2,564%

@1.47

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

RB Leipzig to win66%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

RB Leipzig to win66%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Christoph Baumgartner to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Christoph Baumgartner to score30%
Joseph Michael Scally to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · RB Leipzig66% probability@1.58BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
1 · RB Leipzig66% probability@1.58BetssonEV+4%reference odds
1 · RB Leipzig66% probability@1.58NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · RB Leipzig	X	2 · Borussia Mönchengladbach
Betsafe	EV+ 4% 1.58	4.10	5.30
Betsson	EV+ 4% 1.58	4.15	5.35
Nordicbet	EV+ 4% 1.58	4.10	5.30

Odds updated 26 Aug, 12:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

63 %58 %

1.55 → 1.58

X-3 %

25 %20 %

4.30 → 4.15

20 %

20 %15 %

5.35 → 5.35

Over 2,5-1 %

67 %62 %

1.49 → 1.47

Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 22/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

RB Leipzig 1Draw 2Borussia Mönchengladbach 1

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 0,5)

Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

Key facts

RB Leipzig have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
RB Leipzig win 59% of their home matches all-time (34 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

RB Leipzig

Borussia Mönchengladbach

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

RB Leipzig (66–47)

Borussia Mönchengladbach (42–53)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

RB Leipzig

Borussia Mönchengladbach

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

RB Leipzig

Borussia Mönchengladbach

The teams in numbers

Performance	RB Leipzig	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Points	65	38
xPoints	55	45.5
xG per match	2	1.4
xGA per match	1.4	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.36	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.22

Playing style	RB Leipzig	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.28
Field tilt	0.56	0.37
xT per match	1.2	0.96
xTA per match	1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	24	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.31	0.27
Entries into the box per match	16	12
Entries into the box against	12	15
Pass completion %	0.8	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.75
Passes per match	441	383
Passes against per match	367	457
Switches of play per match	30.8	19.6
Long balls per match	31	27

Set pieces	RB Leipzig	Borussia Mönchengladbach
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.08
Corners per match	5.4	3.8
Corners against per match	4.4	4.9
xG per corner	0.05	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.58

Other	RB Leipzig	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Throw-in control	0.69	0.75

The goalkeepers	Péter Gulácsi (RB Leipzig)	Moritz Nicolas (Borussia Mönchengladbach)
Saves	55	137
Save %	63%	73%
xG prevented	42%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach according to our model?

The model gives RB Leipzig a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: RB Leipzig 66%, draw 19%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 64% and under at 36%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.