BundesligaMHPArena, Stuttgart25°14 km/h

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    StuttgartStuttgartLow block & direct
    vs
    FC KölnFC KölnLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Stuttgart (66%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 3.60 (+32 %)

    Stuttgart – FC Köln · Bundesliga

    1 · Stuttgart 66%X 19%15% FC Köln · 2

    Analysis: Stuttgart – FC Köln

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    VfB Stuttgart's attack stands as a formidable force in the Bundesliga, with their expected goals at 2.23 per match indicating a strong offensive capability. Despite FC Köln's consistent scoring streak, having netted in 11 consecutive league games, they face a daunting task against a Stuttgart side that has won 56% of their home matches all-time. The hosts seem primed to capitalize on their attacking prowess.

    The head-to-head record might be small, but Stuttgart's two wins in their recent meetings with Köln could hint at a psychological edge. Yet, Köln's overall form and better xPoints and xG metrics suggest they're not to be underestimated. While Stuttgart's expected goals against (xGA) stands alarmingly high at 3.1, it may reflect more on defensive lapses rather than their current home form.

    Stuttgart and Köln both adhere to a low defense and direct style, which could lead to an intriguing tactical battle. The model predicts a higher likelihood for over 2.5 goals (63%) with both teams scoring (58%), possibly influenced by Köln's scoring run. However, given the defensive vulnerabilities and direct play, goals might still be on the cards despite both teams' profiles.

    Stuttgart emerges as the strong favorite with a 66% chance of securing a win. The most likely scorelines of 2-1 and 2-0 further underscore their advantage. While the bookmakers lean heavily towards a higher-scoring game, there is an intriguing value in the under 1.5 market at 6.5 odds from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet — a 4% edge if the game defies expectations and remains tight. A Stuttgart victory seems probable, but the defensive unpredictability could make this a game of fine margins.

    StuttgartStuttgart
    Form DDWDL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #16xT #17xP/match #16Points #18
    Key players
    • Deniz UndavFxG 0.64 · xT 0.10
    • Chris FuhrichLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.37
    • Ermedin DemirovićFxG 0.40 · xT 0.02
    FC KölnFC Köln
    Form LDLLW
    League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #14xP/match #8Points #7
    Key players
    • Gideon MensahLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
    • Luka LochoshviliCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.02
    • Isak JohannessonFxG 0.03 · xT 0.11

    Match prediction: Stuttgart – FC Köln

    Predicted score matrix

    FC Köln →
    Stuttgart →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.1%
    0–13.7%
    0–22.1%
    0–30.7%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–08.2%
    1–19.1%
    1–24.6%
    1–31.6%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.4%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.1%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–07.0%
    3–17.3%
    3–23.8%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–06.5%
    4+–16.8%
    4+–23.6%
    4+–31.2%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-110%
    2. 2.2-09%
    3. 3.1-19%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.3-17%
    Expected goals
    2,23–1,04
    Both teams to score
    58%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,537%
    @3.60EV+32%
    Over 2,563%
    @1.38

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Stuttgart to win66%
    • Over 1.5 goals84%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.80

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Stuttgart to win66%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Nikolas Terkelsen Nartey to score35%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score58%
    • Over 2.5 goals63%
    • Nikolas Terkelsen Nartey to score35%
    • Tom Krauß to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.537% probability@3.60Betfair ExchangeEV+32%reference odds
    • Under 1.516% probability@8.00Paddy PowerEV+28%reference odds
    • Under 2.537% probability@3.30Paddy PowerEV+21%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · StuttgartX2 · FC Köln
    Betfair Exchange1.44
    EV+ 5%
    5.40    		6.00
    Betsafe1.504.555.35
    Betsson1.524.555.40
    Nordicbet1.504.555.35
    Paddy Power1.365.006.00
    Pinnacle1.505.065.68

    Odds updated 4 Sept, 02:37

    Odds movement

    1+1 %
    66 %61 %

    1.48 → 1.50

    X+2 %
    22 %17 %

    4.94 → 5.06

    2+4 %
    20 %15 %

    5.48 → 5.68

    Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 04/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Stuttgart 2Draw 0FC Köln 0
    Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Bundesliga data since 2022.

    Key facts

    • FC Koln have scored in 11 consecutive league matches.
    • VFB Stuttgart win 56% of their home matches all-time (34 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Stuttgart
    FC Köln
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Stuttgart (1–5)
    FC Köln (3–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Stuttgart
    Ramon Hendriks: 41 passningar, xT 0.13HendriksAngelo Stiller: 39 passningar, xT 0.06StillerMaximilian Mittelstädt: 29 passningar, xT 0.37MittelstädtFabian Bredlow: 26 passningar, xT 0.05BredlowFinn Jeltsch: 23 passningar, xT 0.04JeltschGrischa Prömel: 22 passningar, xT 0.06PrömelJeff Chabot: 22 passningar, xT -0.03ChabotJosha Vagnoman: 18 passningar, xT 0VagnomanTiago Tomas: 14 passningar, xT -0.01TomasDženan Pejčinović: 12 passningar, xT -0.05PejčinovićDeniz Undav: 11 passningar, xT 0.01Undav
    FC Köln
    Luka Lochoshvili: 41 passningar, xT 0.03LochoshviliJahmai Simpson-Pusey: 36 passningar, xT -0.01Simpson-PuseyMarvin Schwäbe: 35 passningar, xT 0.09SchwäbeGideon Mensah: 34 passningar, xT 0.12MensahTom Krauß: 25 passningar, xT 0.04KraußIsak Johannesson: 23 passningar, xT 0.1JohannessonAlessio Castro Montes: 23 passningar, xT 0.05MontesPaul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler: 19 passningar, xT 0.01Okon-EngstlerJan Thielmann: 13 passningar, xT 0.02ThielmannSaid El Mala: 9 passningar, xT 0MalaLinton Maina: 8 passningar, xT 0.14Maina
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Stuttgart
    Ramon Hendriks: 41 passningar, xT 0.13HendriksAngelo Stiller: 39 passningar, xT 0.06StillerMaximilian Mittelstädt: 29 passningar, xT 0.37MittelstädtFabian Bredlow: 26 passningar, xT 0.05BredlowFinn Jeltsch: 23 passningar, xT 0.04JeltschGrischa Prömel: 22 passningar, xT 0.06PrömelJeff Chabot: 22 passningar, xT -0.03ChabotJosha Vagnoman: 18 passningar, xT 0VagnomanTiago Tomas: 14 passningar, xT -0.01TomasDženan Pejčinović: 12 passningar, xT -0.05PejčinovićDeniz Undav: 11 passningar, xT 0.01Undav
    FC Köln
    Luka Lochoshvili: 41 passningar, xT 0.03LochoshviliJahmai Simpson-Pusey: 36 passningar, xT -0.01Simpson-PuseyMarvin Schwäbe: 35 passningar, xT 0.09SchwäbeGideon Mensah: 34 passningar, xT 0.12MensahTom Krauß: 25 passningar, xT 0.04KraußIsak Johannesson: 23 passningar, xT 0.1JohannessonAlessio Castro Montes: 23 passningar, xT 0.05MontesPaul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler: 19 passningar, xT 0.01Okon-EngstlerJan Thielmann: 13 passningar, xT 0.02ThielmannSaid El Mala: 9 passningar, xT 0MalaLinton Maina: 8 passningar, xT 0.14Maina

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceStuttgartFC Köln
    Points03
    xPoints0.41.9
    xG per match0.61.6
    xGA per match3.11.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball00.35
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.550
    Playing styleStuttgartFC Köln
    Build-up efficiency0.310.35
    Field tilt0.340.36
    xT per match0.750.92
    xTA per match1.61.8
    Won balls, offensive half2622
    Pressing intensity0.280.26
    Pressing efficiency0.270.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.11
    Entries into the box per match914
    Entries into the box against2322
    Pass completion %0.710.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.630.74
    Passes per match288282
    Passes against per match456427
    Switches of play per match12.225.9
    Long balls per match2037
    Set piecesStuttgartFC Köln
    xG from free kicks0.040
    Corners per match36
    Corners against per match9.27
    xG per corner00.08
    xGA per corner against0.060.02
    First touch, offensive corners %00.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.29
    OtherStuttgartFC Köln
    Throw-in control0.920.62
    The goalkeepersFabian Bredlow (Stuttgart)Marvin Schwäbe (FC Köln)
    Saves52
    Save %56%50%
    xG prevented41%90%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Stuttgart vs FC Köln according to our model?

    The model gives Stuttgart a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stuttgart 66%, draw 19%, FC Köln 15%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.