Kifisia vs Levadiakos: Prediction & Odds (12 Sept 2026)

Greek Super League12 September 202624°14 km/h

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KifisiaLow block & direct

LevadiakosBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Levadiakos (37%)Soft draw

1 · Kifisia 35%X 28%37% Levadiakos · 2

35%

28%

37%

Analysis: Kifisia – Levadiakos

Anna Karlsson · 11 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The text contains an unsupported claim: Bet365 odds of 2.85 are not provided in the FACTS.

Corrected text:

A clash of styles sets the stage for Kifisia's meeting with Levadiakos, where the host's low defense and direct approach counters the visitor's balanced and physical style. Despite Levadiakos' slight edge in model probabilities at 37% to Kifisia's 35%, the recent form paints a different picture. Levadiakos have suffered four consecutive defeats, casting doubt on their ability to capitalize on their narrow statistical advantage.

Digging into the head-to-head record, both teams have claimed a win from their two encounters since 2023. However, this small sample size offers limited insight, especially when juxtaposed with season form and expected goals data. Kifisia's superior xPoints (3.7 vs. 3.0) and favorable xG per match (1.3 vs. 0.85) tilt the scales towards the home side. Furthermore, Kifisia's defensive solidity shines through with an xGA per match of 0.63, a stark contrast to Levadiakos' 1.6.

The most likely scoreline predictions — a 1-1 draw at 13% and a 0-1 or 1-0 result at 9% each — suggest a tight contest. Kifisia's defensive resilience and Levadiakos' struggle to find the net in recent outings could lead this match to be decided by fine margins. With the over/under line at an even split of 50% for 2.5 goals, the numbers suggest a cautious tilt towards the under, particularly given Kifisia's defensive setup.

Amidst the tension of contrasting styles and recent form, the underlying metrics favor the hosts despite the model's lean toward Levadiakos. This assessment, while not a guarantee, highlights where the numbers find the most promise for those seeking a discerning wager.

Kifisia

Form LDWDL

League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #2xP/match #3Points #11

Key players

Jorge Marcos Pombo EscobarCAMxG 0.49 · xT 0.34
Konstantinos RoukounakisCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Jeremy Cornelis Jacobus AntonisseLWxG 0.02 · xT -0.09

Levadiakos

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #10xP/match #12Points #14

Key players

Giannis TsivelekidisCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Agustín José UrziFxG 0.11 · xT -0.01
Giannis KostiCAMxG 0.08 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Kifisia – Levadiakos

Predicted score matrix

Levadiakos →

Kifisia →

0–07.2%

0–19.0%

0–26.5%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.4%

1–08.5%

1–112.6%

1–28.5%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.8%

2–05.8%

2–18.0%

2–25.5%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.2%

3–02.5%

3–13.5%

3–22.4%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,31–1,38

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,550%

@1.70

Over 2,550%

@2.14EV+6%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Levadiakos or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Levadiakos or draw (X2)65%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Sebastián Alberto Palacios to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Rubén Salvador Pérez del Mármol to score20%
Enis Çokaj to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Levadiakos37% probability@3.12PinnacleEV+16%reference odds
Over 4.514% probability@8.00Bet365EV+8%reference odds
Over 2.550% probability@2.14PinnacleEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kifisia	X	2 · Levadiakos
Bet365	2.60	3.10	2.63
Betfair Exchange	1.10	1.10	1.10
Pinnacle	2.42	3.07	EV+ 16% 3.12

Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:32

Odds movement

1+3 %

42 %37 %

2.36 → 2.42

X-6 %

32 %27 %

3.28 → 3.07

2+3 %

33 %28 %

3.03 → 3.12

Over 2,5+1 %

47 %42 %

2.11 → 2.14

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 10/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Kifisia 1Draw 0Levadiakos 1

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Levadiakos have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kifisia

Levadiakos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kifisia (1–3)

Levadiakos (0–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kifisia

Levadiakos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kifisia

Levadiakos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kifisia	Levadiakos
Points	1	0
xPoints	3.7	3
xG per match	1.3	0.85
xGA per match	0.63	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.15
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.5	0.11

Playing style	Kifisia	Levadiakos
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.31
Field tilt	0.65	0.48
xT per match	1.6	0.77
xTA per match	0.77	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	24	34
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.22
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	8	11
Pass completion %	0.78	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.69
Passes per match	312	366
Passes against per match	443	351
Switches of play per match	25.3	37.4
Long balls per match	29	41

Set pieces	Kifisia	Levadiakos
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.01
Corners per match	5.1	4.8
Corners against per match	1.5	3.4
xG per corner	0	0.01
xGA per corner against	0	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.6	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.33	0.6

Other	Kifisia	Levadiakos
Throw-in control	0.71	0.65

The goalkeepers	Wellington Moisés Ramírez Preciado (Kifisia)	Lucas Anacker (Levadiakos)
Saves	5	6
Save %	63%	67%
xG prevented	42%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kifisia

Fixtures, form & tips

Levadiakos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kifisia vs Levadiakos according to our model?

The model gives Levadiakos a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kifisia 35%, draw 28%, Levadiakos 37%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.