Greek Super League28°15 km/h

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    AEK AthensAEK AthensPossession & high press
    5–0
    ArisArisPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · AEK Athens (62%)Best value by the model: 2 · Aris @ 8.12 (+14 %)

    AEK Athens – Aris · Greek Super League

    1 · AEK Athens 62%X 24%14% Aris · 2

    Analysis: AEK Athens – Aris

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: AEK Athens' formidable unbeaten run in their last 26 league matches highlights their consistency and resilience. However, Aris enters this contest with momentum, having won seven straight games. Both teams have distinct styles, with the hosts deploying a high press and the visitors focusing on possession control. Despite the contrasting approaches, Aris' recent form and their ability to score in eight consecutive matches suggest they won't be easily subdued.

    Examining the numbers, Aris holds a slight edge in attacking metrics with 2.1 expected goals per match compared to AEK's 1.8. Yet, AEK has a defensive advantage, conceding just 0.88 expected goals against per game. This defensive solidity aligns with their 70% home win rate, albeit over a larger historical sample of 33 games. The head-to-head record since 2023 is limited to four matches, with AEK remaining unbeaten, but the sample size should caution against over-reliance on these results.

    The model leans heavily towards an AEK victory at 62%, but the betting market might overestimate this given Aris' current streak. With 53% of simulations predicting over 2.5 goals and 48% expecting both teams to score, the match could swing in various directions.

    The most likely scorelines, 2-0 and 1-0 to AEK, each with a 12% probability, suggest a tight encounter. However, Aris has demonstrated an ability to find the net even against robust defenses. The xPoints and points from the current season tip slightly in Aris' favor, indicating potential value in their odds. For those looking for an edge, Aris to score could be an enticing option, given their run of scoring in eight consecutive matches.

    AEK AthensAEK Athens
    Form WDDWD
    League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #3xP/match #6Points #5
    Key players
    • Barnabás VargaFxG 0.37 · xT -0.02
    • Răzvan Gabriel MarinCMxG 0.26 · xT 0.15
    • Harold MoukoudiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
    ArisAris
    Form WWWWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #7xT #8xP/match #4Points #3
    Key players
    • Benjamín Antonio GarréRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.11
    • Uroš RačićCAMxG 0.85 · xT 0.05
    • FabianoCBxG 0.28 · xT 0.15
    Final score
    5 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: AEK Athens 62% · Draw 24% · Aris 14%

    Match prediction: AEK Athens – Aris

    Predicted score matrix

    Aris →
    AEK Athens →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–14.7%
    0–22.0%
    0–30.5%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–011.9%
    1–110.1%
    1–24.0%
    1–31.1%
    1–4+0.3%
    2
    2–012.1%
    2–19.7%
    2–23.9%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–08.0%
    3–16.4%
    3–22.6%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–06.2%
    4+–15.0%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-012%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.1-110%
    4. 4.2-110%
    5. 5.3-08%
    Expected goals
    1,98–0,81
    Both teams to score
    48%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @1.95
    Over 2,553%
    @1.93EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • AEK Athens to win62%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    53%

    Fair odds

    1.90

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • AEK Athens to win62%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Robert Ljubičić to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score48%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Robert Ljubičić to score22%
    • Álvaro Tejero Sacristán to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Aris14% probability@8.12PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
    • X · Draw24% probability@4.64PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
    • Over 2.553% probability@1.93PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AEK AthensX2 · Aris
    Paddy Power1.36
    EV+ 1%
    4.20    		7.00
    Pinnacle1.41
    EV+ 12%
    4.64
    EV+ 14%
    8.12

    Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.10 to 1.93 (−8%).

    1+4 %
    73 %63 %

    1.35 → 1.41

    X-5 %
    25 %15 %

    4.91 → 4.64

    2+1 %
    17 %7 %

    8.03 → 8.12

    Over 2,5+12 %
    57 %47 %

    1.72 → 1.93

    Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    AEK Athens 2Draw 2Aris 0
    Goals: 6–1 (⌀ 1,8)

    Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • AEK Athens are unbeaten in their last 26 league matches.
    • Aris Thessaloniki come into this round on 7 straight wins.
    • Aris Thessaloniki have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    • AEK Athens win 70% of their home matches all-time (33 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    AEK Athens
    Aris
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    AEK Athens (5–1)
    Aris (5–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    AEK Athens
    Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveira: 147 passningar, xT 0.2OliveiraHarold Moukoudi: 135 passningar, xT 0.16MoukoudiRăzvan Gabriel Marin: 122 passningar, xT 0.28MarinMilán Vitális: 113 passningar, xT 0.19VitálisLazaros Rota: 108 passningar, xT 0.09RotaStavros Pilios: 73 passningar, xT 0.09PiliosThomas Strakosha: 53 passningar, xT 0.04StrakoshaLovro Majer: 50 passningar, xT 0.46MajerOleksandr Zubkov: 36 passningar, xT 0.51ZubkovLuka Jović: 29 passningar, xT 0.07JovićKaan Kairinen: 27 passningar, xT 0Kairinen
    Aris
    Hans Fredrik Jensen: 77 passningar, xT 0.09JensenFabiano: 73 passningar, xT 0.3FabianoUroš Račić: 67 passningar, xT 0.07RačićAyotomiwa Sherif Dele-Bashiru: 57 passningar, xT -0.03Dele-BashiruOmar Tyrell Crawford Richards: 46 passningar, xT 0.03RichardsBenjamín Antonio Garré: 44 passningar, xT 0.21GarréNoah Fadiga: 42 passningar, xT 0.19FadigaJérémy Arnaud Pétris: 37 passningar, xT 0.05PétrisMário Ricardo da Silva Velho: 30 passningar, xT 0.05VelhoRafael Mir Vicente: 19 passningar, xT 0VicenteSebastián Alberto Palacios: 18 passningar, xT 0.07Palacios
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    AEK Athens
    Filipe do Bem Relvas Vitó Oliveira: 147 passningar, xT 0.2OliveiraHarold Moukoudi: 135 passningar, xT 0.16MoukoudiRăzvan Gabriel Marin: 122 passningar, xT 0.28MarinMilán Vitális: 113 passningar, xT 0.19VitálisLazaros Rota: 108 passningar, xT 0.09RotaStavros Pilios: 73 passningar, xT 0.09PiliosThomas Strakosha: 53 passningar, xT 0.04StrakoshaLovro Majer: 50 passningar, xT 0.46MajerOleksandr Zubkov: 36 passningar, xT 0.51ZubkovLuka Jović: 29 passningar, xT 0.07JovićKaan Kairinen: 27 passningar, xT 0Kairinen
    Aris
    Hans Fredrik Jensen: 77 passningar, xT 0.09JensenFabiano: 73 passningar, xT 0.3FabianoUroš Račić: 67 passningar, xT 0.07RačićAyotomiwa Sherif Dele-Bashiru: 57 passningar, xT -0.03Dele-BashiruOmar Tyrell Crawford Richards: 46 passningar, xT 0.03RichardsBenjamín Antonio Garré: 44 passningar, xT 0.21GarréNoah Fadiga: 42 passningar, xT 0.19FadigaJérémy Arnaud Pétris: 37 passningar, xT 0.05PétrisMário Ricardo da Silva Velho: 30 passningar, xT 0.05VelhoRafael Mir Vicente: 19 passningar, xT 0VicenteSebastián Alberto Palacios: 18 passningar, xT 0.07Palacios

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAEK AthensAris
    Points46
    xPoints2.93.9
    xG per match1.82.1
    xGA per match0.881
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.670.42
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.050.12
    Playing styleAEK AthensAris
    Build-up efficiency0.340.31
    Field tilt0.570.54
    xT per match1.30.93
    xTA per match0.861.1
    Won balls, offensive half3025
    Pressing intensity0.240.22
    Pressing efficiency0.250.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.28
    Entries into the box per match1313
    Entries into the box against97
    Pass completion %0.840.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.69
    Passes per match477282
    Passes against per match271288
    Switches of play per match37.834.7
    Long balls per match4138
    Set piecesAEK AthensAris
    xG from free kicks0.070.1
    Corners per match3.56.3
    Corners against per match1.50.96
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against00.18
    First touch, offensive corners %0.710.38
    First touch, defensive corners %0.670
    OtherAEK AthensAris
    Throw-in control0.650.71
    The goalkeepersThomas Strakosha (AEK Athens)Mário Ricardo da Silva Velho (Aris)
    Saves33
    Save %75%50%
    xG prevented75%18%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    AEK Athens
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Aris
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins AEK Athens vs Aris according to our model?

    The model gives AEK Athens a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AEK Athens 62%, draw 24%, Aris 14%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.