Greek Super League24°14 km/h

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    ArisArisPossession control
    vs
    Iraklis 1908Iraklis 1908Low block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Aris (73%)

    Aris – Iraklis 1908 · Greek Super League

    1 · Aris 73%X 16%10% Iraklis 1908 · 2

    Analysis: Aris – Iraklis 1908

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The corrected TEXT:

    Aris' high possession style faces a stern test against Iraklis 1908's defensive discipline and direct counterattacks. With a commanding 73% win probability, Aris are clear favorites. Their modelled expected goals of 2.43 suggests they'll dominate chances. In contrast, Iraklis are expected to muster only 0.63 xG, reinforcing the likely scenario of Aris controlling the match narrative.

    Aris' form, bolstered by six points, further tilts the balance. Their xPoints edge, though narrower, hints at consistent performance. However, they appear vulnerable defensively, conceding 1.8 xGA per game. Iraklis, though less potent offensively with just 0.64 xG per match, are marginally more robust defensively, suggesting they might stifle Aris for parts of the game.

    Despite Aris' defensive frailties, the most likely scorelines — 2-0 and 3-0 — imply that Iraklis' threat on goal may be minimal. The model's 59% over 2.5 goal prediction aligns with these potential outcomes, but the 43% chance of both teams scoring hints that a breakthrough from Iraklis is not out of the question.

    The sharpest angle lies in backing Aris to win, given their overwhelming 73% probability. With Aris poised to assert their dominance, a 2-0 win appears the most plausible outcome, reinforcing the undercurrent that Aris will leverage their possession to stifle and break down Iraklis' resolute defense.

    ArisAris
    Form WWWWL
    League ranking xG #4xGA #12xT #13xP/match #6Points #7
    Key players
    • FabianoCBxG 0.27 · xT 0.15
    • Philana Tinotenda KadewereFxG 0.35 · xT 0.08
    • Uroš RačićCMxG 0.58 · xT 0.04
    Iraklis 1908Iraklis 1908
    Form LDW
    League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #14xP/match #9Points #8
    Key players
    • Carles SoriaRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
    • Marco KrainzCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.03
    • Eulânio Ângelo Chipela GomesLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.01

    Match prediction: Aris – Iraklis 1908

    Predicted score matrix

    Iraklis 1908 →
    Aris →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.9%
    0–12.7%
    0–20.9%
    0–30.2%
    0–4+0.0%
    1
    1–011.2%
    1–17.4%
    1–22.3%
    1–30.5%
    1–4+0.1%
    2
    2–013.8%
    2–18.7%
    2–22.8%
    2–30.6%
    2–4+0.1%
    3
    3–011.2%
    3–17.1%
    3–22.2%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–012.1%
    4+–17.6%
    4+–22.4%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-014%
    2. 2.3-011%
    3. 3.1-011%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.1-17%
    Expected goals
    2,43–0,63
    Both teams to score
    43%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,541%
    –
    Over 2,559%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

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    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Aris to win73%
    • Over 1.5 goals81%

    Combined probability

    66%

    Fair odds

    1.52

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Aris to win73%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Philana Tinotenda Kadewere to score37%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score43%
    • Over 2.5 goals59%
    • Philana Tinotenda Kadewere to score37%
    • Marco Krainz to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    No odds available yet.

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Aris
    Iraklis 1908
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Aris (5–8)
    Iraklis 1908 (3–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Aris
    Hans Fredrik Jensen: 107 passningar, xT 0.13JensenUroš Račić: 102 passningar, xT 0.1RačićAyotomiwa Sherif Dele-Bashiru: 83 passningar, xT -0.03Dele-BashiruNoah Fadiga: 77 passningar, xT 0.29FadigaOmar Tyrell Crawford Richards: 74 passningar, xT 0.05RichardsFabiano: 73 passningar, xT 0.3FabianoBenjamín Antonio Garré: 60 passningar, xT 0.21GarréMário Ricardo da Silva Velho: 50 passningar, xT 0.04VelhoJérémy Arnaud Pétris: 37 passningar, xT 0.05PétrisSebastián Alberto Palacios: 29 passningar, xT 0.07PalaciosRafael Mir Vicente: 28 passningar, xT -0.05Vicente
    Iraklis 1908
    Carles Soria: 86 passningar, xT 0.24SoriaKylian Kaïboué: 56 passningar, xT 0.07KaïbouéVasilios Sourlis: 55 passningar, xT 0.05SourlisPraxitelis Vouros: 54 passningar, xT 0.08VourosEulânio Ângelo Chipela Gomes: 53 passningar, xT -0.02GomesRob Nizet: 45 passningar, xT 0.02NizetYohan Cédric Benjamin Roche: 43 passningar, xT 0.05RocheGiorgos Athanasiadis: 43 passningar, xT 0.05AthanasiadisIñigo Sebastián Magaña: 41 passningar, xT 0.07MagañaMarco Krainz: 32 passningar, xT 0.04KrainzSoufiane Chakla Mrioued: 32 passningar, xT 0.03Mrioued
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Aris
    Hans Fredrik Jensen: 107 passningar, xT 0.13JensenUroš Račić: 102 passningar, xT 0.1RačićAyotomiwa Sherif Dele-Bashiru: 83 passningar, xT -0.03Dele-BashiruNoah Fadiga: 77 passningar, xT 0.29FadigaOmar Tyrell Crawford Richards: 74 passningar, xT 0.05RichardsFabiano: 73 passningar, xT 0.3FabianoBenjamín Antonio Garré: 60 passningar, xT 0.21GarréMário Ricardo da Silva Velho: 50 passningar, xT 0.04VelhoJérémy Arnaud Pétris: 37 passningar, xT 0.05PétrisSebastián Alberto Palacios: 29 passningar, xT 0.07PalaciosRafael Mir Vicente: 28 passningar, xT -0.05Vicente
    Iraklis 1908
    Carles Soria: 86 passningar, xT 0.24SoriaKylian Kaïboué: 56 passningar, xT 0.07KaïbouéVasilios Sourlis: 55 passningar, xT 0.05SourlisPraxitelis Vouros: 54 passningar, xT 0.08VourosEulânio Ângelo Chipela Gomes: 53 passningar, xT -0.02GomesRob Nizet: 45 passningar, xT 0.02NizetYohan Cédric Benjamin Roche: 43 passningar, xT 0.05RocheGiorgos Athanasiadis: 43 passningar, xT 0.05AthanasiadisIñigo Sebastián Magaña: 41 passningar, xT 0.07MagañaMarco Krainz: 32 passningar, xT 0.04KrainzSoufiane Chakla Mrioued: 32 passningar, xT 0.03Mrioued

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceArisIraklis 1908
    Points64
    xPoints4.33.5
    xG per match1.60.64
    xGA per match1.81.7
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.290.07
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.440.32
    Playing styleArisIraklis 1908
    Build-up efficiency0.310.29
    Field tilt0.470.25
    xT per match0.70.29
    xTA per match1.41.6
    Won balls, offensive half2522
    Pressing intensity0.230.26
    Pressing efficiency0.270.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.17
    Entries into the box per match115
    Entries into the box against1018
    Pass completion %0.740.69
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.69
    Passes per match285224
    Passes against per match349419
    Switches of play per match30.922.8
    Long balls per match3530
    Set piecesArisIraklis 1908
    xG from free kicks0.070.02
    Corners per match4.92.7
    Corners against per match1.34.7
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.10.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.12
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.43
    OtherArisIraklis 1908
    Throw-in control0.70.56
    The goalkeepersMário Ricardo da Silva Velho (Aris)Giorgos Athanasiadis (Iraklis 1908)
    Saves814
    Save %50%74%
    xG prevented23%54%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Aris
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Iraklis 1908
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Aris vs Iraklis 1908 according to our model?

    The model gives Aris a 73% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Aris 73%, draw 16%, Iraklis 1908 10%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.