Atromitos vs Kifisia: Prediction & Odds (19 Sept 2026)

Greek Super League19 September 202625°10 km/h

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AtromitosLow block & direct

KifisiaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Atromitos (42%)

1 · Atromitos 42%X 30%27% Kifisia · 2

42%

30%

27%

Analysis: Atromitos – Kifisia

Oscar Nilsson · 11 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

With a model probability giving Atromitos a favorable 42% chance to win against Kifisia's 27%, the numbers suggest a slight edge for the hosts. However, a deeper dive reveals complexities that may have been overlooked. Atromitos may be the favorite on paper, but Kifisia boasts a significant edge in expected goals (xG) metrics, averaging 1.3 xG per match compared to Atromitos's 0.65. This disparity hints at a potential upset that the market may be underestimating.

Head-to-head history since 2023 is limited to four encounters, offering a modest advantage to Atromitos with two wins, one draw, and one loss. Yet, in terms of expected points, Kifisia actually has the upper hand with 3.7 xPoints versus Atromitos's 3.1. This further underscores the visitors' capacity to outperform expectations, despite the small sample size.

Both teams adopt a low defense and direct style, which can lead to a tightly contested match. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 for Atromitos suggest a match that might not see many goals. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at just 42%, reinforcing a lean towards a low-scoring affair. With both teams to score at 48%, bettors might find value in doubting a goal-heavy game.

The expected goals against (xGA) also tilt in Kifisia's favor, with them conceding significantly less at 0.63 per match compared to Atromitos's 1.6. This defensive solidity could be crucial and is possibly underestimated by the model favoring Atromitos.

For bettors seeking value, consider Kifisia achieving a surprise result. Despite Atromitos being the favorite, the numbers suggest that Kifisia could well emerge with at least a point, making this a matchup to watch closely.

Atromitos

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #9xT #12xP/match #11Points #10

Key players

Georgios TzovarasLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
Athanasios KaramanisRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
Jere Juhani UronenLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08

Kifisia

Form LDWDL

League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #2xP/match #3Points #11

Key players

Jorge Marcos Pombo EscobarCAMxG 0.49 · xT 0.34
Konstantinos RoukounakisCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
Jeremy Cornelis Jacobus AntonisseLWxG 0.02 · xT -0.09

Match prediction: Atromitos – Kifisia

Predicted score matrix

Kifisia →

Atromitos →

0–09.6%

0–19.3%

0–25.0%

0–31.7%

0–4+0.6%

1–012.0%

1–113.3%

1–26.7%

1–32.3%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.3%

2–18.6%

2–24.5%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.7%

3–13.9%

3–22.0%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.7%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,34–1,04

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

–

Over 2,542%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Atromitos or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Atromitos or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Makana Nsimba Baku to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Makana Nsimba Baku to score32%
Konstantinos Roukounakis to be booked20%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Atromitos 2Draw 1Kifisia 1

Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Atromitos

Kifisia

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Atromitos (2–4)

Kifisia (1–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Atromitos

Kifisia

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Atromitos

Kifisia

The teams in numbers

Performance	Atromitos	Kifisia
Points	1	1
xPoints	3.1	3.7
xG per match	0.65	1.3
xGA per match	1.6	0.63
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.5

Playing style	Atromitos	Kifisia
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.35
Field tilt	0.42	0.65
xT per match	0.71	1.6
xTA per match	1.3	0.77
Won balls, offensive half	24	24
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.24
Entries into the box per match	12	14
Entries into the box against	19	8
Pass completion %	0.72	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.75
Passes per match	279	312
Passes against per match	358	443
Switches of play per match	20.9	25.3
Long balls per match	24	29

Set pieces	Atromitos	Kifisia
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.05
Corners per match	4.7	5.1
Corners against per match	7.4	1.5
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0.02	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.29	0.6
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.33

Other	Atromitos	Kifisia
Throw-in control	0.68	0.71

The goalkeepers	Lefteris Choutesiotis (Atromitos)	Wellington Moisés Ramírez Preciado (Kifisia)
Saves	14	5
Save %	82%	63%
xG prevented	87%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Atromitos

Fixtures, form & tips

Kifisia

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Atromitos vs Kifisia according to our model?

The model gives Atromitos a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atromitos 42%, draw 30%, Kifisia 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.