Greek Super League28°8 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    AtromitosAtromitosLow block & direct
    1–2
    PAOKPAOKBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · PAOK (49%)Best value by the model: 1 · Atromitos @ 4.80 (+13 %)

    Atromitos – PAOK · Greek Super League

    1 · Atromitos 24%X 28%49% PAOK · 2

    Analysis: Atromitos – PAOK

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    With PAOK Thessaloniki unbeaten in their last five league outings, they're the clear favorites against Atromitos Athens. The model sets PAOK's win probability at 49%, and the hosts lag significantly with just a 24% chance. PAOK's recent form and their balanced, physical style contrast sharply with Atromitos' low defense and direct approach.

    The head-to-head record since 2023 shows PAOK winning three of the four encounters, but it's a small sample size. In terms of expected goals, PAOK dominates with 1.53 to Atromitos' 0.99, highlighting the visitors' superior offensive prowess. The expected goals against further support this, with Atromitos leaking an alarming 2.9 per match compared to PAOK's sturdy 0.67.

    Market odds present an interesting twist. Despite PAOK's edge, there's value in the home side. Odds of 5.36 at Betsson, and 5.35 at both Betsafe and Nordicbet, offer an enticing 26-27% edge for Atromitos. While it's a high-risk play, the value is undeniably there given the model's 24% home win probability.

    On the scoreline front, 1-1 emerges as the most likely result at 13%, closely followed by PAOK's 0-1 and 0-2 victories. The model predicts a balanced game in terms of goals, with a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% likelihood for both teams to score. However, Atromitos' porous defense could tip this towards a tighter scoreline.

    The sharpest angle? Betting on Atromitos at juicy odds offers value. While PAOK is favored to edge the match, the potential payout on a home win is substantial. Those willing to take a calculated risk might just find Atromitos' odds too tempting to pass up.

    AtromitosAtromitos
    Form LWLWL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #9xP/match #12Points #8
    Key players
    • Denzel JubitanaRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.08
    • Peter MichorlCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
    • Mattheos MountesRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
    PAOKPAOK
    Form WDDDW
    League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #5xP/match #2Points #1
    Key players
    • Andrija ZivkovicRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.24
    • Georgios GiakoumakisFxG 0.64 · xT 0.06
    • Alexander JeremejeffFxG 0.43 · xT 0.01
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Atromitos 24% · Draw 28% · PAOK 49%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - AtromitosBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 17,02fair 20,55-17 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - PAOK ThessalonikiBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,60fair 8,75-36 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Atromitos – PAOK

    Predicted score matrix

    PAOK →
    Atromitos →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.3%
    0–111.9%
    0–29.4%
    0–34.8%
    0–4+2.6%
    1
    1–07.6%
    1–112.5%
    1–29.3%
    1–34.8%
    1–4+2.6%
    2
    2–03.9%
    2–16.0%
    2–24.6%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–01.3%
    3–12.0%
    3–21.5%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.6%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.0-29%
    4. 4.1-29%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    0,99–1,53
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.98EV+5%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.88

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • PAOK to win49%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    35%

    Fair odds

    2.82

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • PAOK to win49%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Magomed Ozdoev to score22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Makana Nsimba Baku to score31%
    • Samuel Alain Moutoussamy to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Atromitos24% probability@4.80BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
    • 1 · Atromitos24% probability@4.80BetssonEV+13%reference odds
    • 1 · Atromitos24% probability@4.80NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · AtromitosX2 · PAOK
    Betsafe
    EV+ 13%
    4.80
    EV+ 2%
    3.70    		1.65
    Betsson
    EV+ 13%
    4.80
    EV+ 2%
    3.71    		1.66
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 13%
    4.80
    EV+ 2%
    3.70    		1.65
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 13%
    4.78
    EV+ 5%
    3.81    		1.72

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 05:17

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Atromitos win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 5.52 to 4.78 (−13%).

    1-13 %
    21 %16 %

    5.52 → 4.78

    X-6 %
    27 %22 %

    4.06 → 3.81

    2+10 %
    60 %55 %

    1.56 → 1.72

    Over 2,5+4 %
    54 %49 %

    1.81 → 1.88

    Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Atromitos 1Draw 0PAOK 3
    Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • PAOK Thessaloniki are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Atromitos
    PAOK
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Atromitos (0–1)
    PAOK (4–0)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Atromitos
    Mattheos Mountes: 23 passningar, xT 0.02MountesSamuel Alain Moutoussamy: 21 passningar, xT 0.04MoutoussamyLefteris Choutesiotis: 21 passningar, xT 0.02ChoutesiotisTheocharis Tsingaras: 18 passningar, xT 0.01TsingarasJere Juhani Uronen: 17 passningar, xT 0.03UronenDimitrios Stavropoulos: 14 passningar, xT 0.04StavropoulosGerasimos Mitoglou: 12 passningar, xT 0.14MitoglouSteven Zuber: 11 passningar, xT 0.01ZuberCristopher Nunez: 7 passningar, xT 0.05NunezStavros Pnevmonidis: 7 passningar, xT 0.01PnevmonidisGeorgios Tzovaras: 5 passningar, xT 0Tzovaras
    PAOK
    Aritz Elustondo: 63 passningar, xT 0.11ElustondoJonjoe Kenny: 57 passningar, xT 0.08KennyGiannis Michailidis: 51 passningar, xT 0.11MichailidisAbdul Rahman Baba: 36 passningar, xT 0.01BabaTom Louchet: 36 passningar, xT 0.02LouchetAndrija Zivkovic: 34 passningar, xT 0.47ZivkovicGreg John Taylor: 34 passningar, xT 0.01TaylorJiri Pavlenka: 22 passningar, xT -0.01PavlenkaDimitris Pelkas: 19 passningar, xT 0.01PelkasShola Shoretire: 19 passningar, xT -0.11ShoretireTaison Barcellos Freda: 17 passningar, xT 0.14Freda
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Atromitos
    Mattheos Mountes: 23 passningar, xT 0.02MountesSamuel Alain Moutoussamy: 21 passningar, xT 0.04MoutoussamyLefteris Choutesiotis: 21 passningar, xT 0.02ChoutesiotisTheocharis Tsingaras: 18 passningar, xT 0.01TsingarasJere Juhani Uronen: 17 passningar, xT 0.03UronenDimitrios Stavropoulos: 14 passningar, xT 0.04StavropoulosGerasimos Mitoglou: 12 passningar, xT 0.14MitoglouSteven Zuber: 11 passningar, xT 0.01ZuberCristopher Nunez: 7 passningar, xT 0.05NunezStavros Pnevmonidis: 7 passningar, xT 0.01PnevmonidisGeorgios Tzovaras: 5 passningar, xT 0Tzovaras
    PAOK
    Aritz Elustondo: 63 passningar, xT 0.11ElustondoJonjoe Kenny: 57 passningar, xT 0.08KennyGiannis Michailidis: 51 passningar, xT 0.11MichailidisAbdul Rahman Baba: 36 passningar, xT 0.01BabaTom Louchet: 36 passningar, xT 0.02LouchetAndrija Zivkovic: 34 passningar, xT 0.47ZivkovicGreg John Taylor: 34 passningar, xT 0.01TaylorJiri Pavlenka: 22 passningar, xT -0.01PavlenkaDimitris Pelkas: 19 passningar, xT 0.01PelkasShola Shoretire: 19 passningar, xT -0.11ShoretireTaison Barcellos Freda: 17 passningar, xT 0.14Freda

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceAtromitosPAOK
    Points03
    xPoints0.32.5
    xG per match0.352.3
    xGA per match2.90.67
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.14
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.150
    Playing styleAtromitosPAOK
    Build-up efficiency0.320.32
    Field tilt0.190.59
    xT per match0.490.96
    xTA per match1.70.95
    Won balls, offensive half2622
    Pressing intensity0.220.2
    Pressing efficiency0.270.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.130.27
    Entries into the box per match710
    Entries into the box against2410
    Pass completion %0.620.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.60.71
    Passes per match170442
    Passes against per match467382
    Switches of play per match11.228.2
    Long balls per match2040
    Set piecesAtromitosPAOK
    xG from free kicks0.090.11
    Corners per match4.13.1
    Corners against per match14.31
    xG per corner0.010.01
    xGA per corner against0.020
    First touch, offensive corners %0.250.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.641
    OtherAtromitosPAOK
    Throw-in control0.620.62
    The goalkeepersLefteris Choutesiotis (Atromitos)Jiri Pavlenka (PAOK)
    Saves83
    Save %89%100%
    xG prevented97%100%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Atromitos
    Fixtures, form & tips
    PAOK
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Atromitos vs PAOK according to our model?

    The model gives PAOK a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atromitos 24%, draw 28%, PAOK 49%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    OlympiacosOlympiacos
    1–0
    AtromitosAtromitos
    1 71%X 19%2 10%
    The model called the outcome
    PanetolikosPanetolikos
    3–1
    Asteras AktorAsteras Aktor
    1 37%X 31%2 32%
    The model called the outcome
    OFI CreteOFI Crete
    2–0
    VolosVolos
    1 45%X 28%2 27%
    The model called the outcome

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.