Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos: Prediction & Odds (31 Aug 2026)

Greek Super League31 August 2026

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LevadiakosBalanced & physical

0–2

Panathinaikos

The model's lean: 2 · Panathinaikos (45%)Best value by the model: 1 · Levadiakos @ 5.27 (+42 %)

1 · Levadiakos 27%X 28%45% Panathinaikos · 2

27%

28%

45%

Analysis: Levadiakos – Panathinaikos

Marcus Johansson · 31 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Panathinaikos has had the upper hand in recent clashes against Levadiakos, winning three out of their last four encounters, with the remaining match ending in a draw. This dominance may not be extensive, but it sets a tone for the upcoming fixture where the visitors are favoured by the model to continue their positive streak. The expected goals tally leans slightly towards Panathinaikos, suggesting they might edge out Levadiakos yet again, albeit by a narrow margin.

Levadiakos, playing at home, will need to leverage their tactical strengths to upset this prediction. They are likely to focus on tighter defensive organization and look to exploit counter-attacking opportunities. Their pressing game will be crucial to disrupt Panathinaikos' rhythm, aiming to capitalize on any lapses. The visitors, on the other hand, might use the flanks effectively, seeking to create overloads and stretch Levadiakos' defensive lines.

The model's probability gives Panathinaikos a 45% chance of victory compared to Levadiakos' 27%, with a draw slightly more likely than a home win. Most likely scorelines such as 1-1, 0-1, and 1-2 point to a low-scoring affair, consistent with an expected goals total hovering around 1.10 for Levadiakos and 1.43 for Panathinaikos. The slight edge in attack and historical form give the visitors a credible advantage, but not overwhelmingly so.

In terms of betting angles, the numbers suggest a cautious approach. The over 2.5 goals market is finely balanced at 46%, which indicates a slight lean towards the under. However, the most enticing angle may lie in backing Panathinaikos for a narrow win, though no specific odds are available to confirm value.

Levadiakos

Form WWWLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #7xP/match #12Points #12

Key players

Fabricio PedrozoFxG 0.50 · xT 0.06
Giannis KostiCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Triantafyllos TsaprasRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.22

Panathinaikos

Form LDLLD

Key players

Andrews TettehFxG 0.40 · xT 0.09
Mateus Cardoso Lemos MartinsRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.16
Vicente TabordaRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.14

Final score

0 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Levadiakos 27% · Draw 28% · Panathinaikos 45%

Match prediction: Levadiakos – Panathinaikos

Predicted score matrix

Panathinaikos →

Levadiakos →

0–08.4%

0–111.1%

0–28.2%

0–33.9%

0–4+1.9%

1–08.4%

1–112.9%

1–29.0%

1–34.3%

1–4+2.1%

2–04.8%

2–16.9%

2–24.9%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.1%

3–01.8%

3–12.5%

3–21.8%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,10–1,43

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.97EV+6%

Over 2,546%

@1.88

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Panathinaikos to win45%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Panathinaikos to win45%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Adam Gnezda Čerin to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Panagiotis Simelidis to score22%
Enis Çokaj to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Levadiakos27% probability@5.27PinnacleEV+42%reference odds
X · Draw28% probability@3.96PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
Under 2.554% probability@1.97PinnacleEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Levadiakos	X	2 · Panathinaikos
Pinnacle	EV+ 42% 5.27	EV+ 9% 3.96	1.65

Odds updated 31 Aug, 10:26

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Panathinaikos win since 25 August — the odds have shortened from 1.88 to 1.65 (−12%).

1+32 %

26 %16 %

4.00 → 5.27

X+12 %

30 %20 %

3.55 → 3.96

2-12 %

59 %49 %

1.88 → 1.65

Over 2,5-1 %

56 %46 %

1.90 → 1.88

Pinnacle · 16 recorded price levels · 25/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Levadiakos 0Draw 1Panathinaikos 3

Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Levadiakos

Panathinaikos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Levadiakos (0–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Levadiakos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Levadiakos

The goalkeepers	Giannis Tsivelekidis (Levadiakos)	Panathinaikos
Saves	2	–
Save %	100%	–
xG prevented	100%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Teams & more matches this round

Levadiakos

Fixtures, form & tips

Panathinaikos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Levadiakos vs Panathinaikos according to our model?

The model gives Panathinaikos a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Levadiakos 27%, draw 28%, Panathinaikos 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.