01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Levadiakos to win59%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Greek Super League
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LevadiakosBalanced & physical0–2
PanetolikosLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Levadiakos (59%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.24 (+14 %)
Levadiakos – Panetolikos · Greek Super League
1 · Levadiakos 59%X 23%18% Panetolikos · 2
59%
23%
18%
Analysis: Levadiakos – Panetolikos
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
FAKTA vs TEXT tekstas has two errors:
1. The 1.79 figure is Levadiakos' expected goals, not betting odds — the text incorrectly presents it as "1.79 odds with Bet365." 2. With over 2.5 goals at 51%, the lean should be slightly toward the over, not the under.
Corrected text:
Three straight losses have left Levadiakos reeling, yet the model still sees them as the favorites with a 59% chance of victory against Panetolikos GFS. Despite their poor run, the hosts' balanced and physical approach could counter the visitors' low defensive line and direct attacking style. The most likely scoreline of 1-0 reflects Levadiakos' potential to edge this clash despite their recent struggles.
Historically, Levadiakos have dominated this matchup with three wins in their last six encounters. However, the small sample size means this head-to-head record bears less weight than the current form and expected goals. Panetolikos GFS holds an advantage in both points and expected points this season, indicating a potential to upset Levadiakos, especially if they capitalize on their superior xG and xGA figures.
With an over 2.5 goals likelihood sitting at 51%, the match seems poised for a moderately open contest, leaning slightly towards the over. Levadiakos carry an expected goals figure of 1.79, underlining their attacking potential despite the recent slump. A cautious prediction of 1-0 for the hosts emerges, although the match could swing with an early goal.
LevadiakosForm WWLLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #11xT #10xP/match #12Points #14
Key players
- Agustín José UrziFxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
- Giannis TsivelekidisCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
- Giannis KostiCAMxG 0.00 · xT -0.05
PanetolikosForm DDLWW
League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #9xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Charalampos MavriasRWBxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
- Lazar KojićCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
- Giannis SatsiasCMxG 0.00 · xT -0.04
Final score
0 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Levadiakos 59% · Draw 23% · Panetolikos 18%
Match prediction: Levadiakos – Panetolikos
Predicted score matrix
Panetolikos →
Levadiakos →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–15.8%
0–22.8%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–011.6%
1–111.3%
1–25.0%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.7%
2–19.8%
2–24.5%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–06.4%
3–15.9%
3–22.7%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–04.3%
4+–13.9%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-012%
- 2.1-111%
- 3.2-011%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,79–0,92
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.68
Over 2,551%
@2.24EV+7%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Levadiakos to win59%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Alen Ožbolt to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Alen Ožbolt to score24%
- Enis Çokaj to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.551% probability@2.24PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
- 1 · Levadiakos59% probability@1.90PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
- Over 4.514% probability@8.00Paddy PowerEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Levadiakos | X | 2 · Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.61 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 12% 1.90 | 3.43 | 4.41 |
Odds updated 6 Sept, 10:31
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 1.81 to 1.68 (−7%).
1+3 %
54 %49 %
1.84 → 1.90
X-3 %
30 %25 %
3.52 → 3.43
2+3 %
24 %19 %
4.27 → 4.41
Over 2,5+12 %
48 %43 %
2.00 → 2.24
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesLevadiakos 3Draw 2Panetolikos 1
Goals: 13–5 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Levadiakos dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
- Levadiakos have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Levadiakos
Panetolikos
Levadiakos (0–6)
Panetolikos (5–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Levadiakos
Panetolikos
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Levadiakos
Panetolikos
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Levadiakos | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 6 |
| xPoints | 1.7 | 4.1 |
| xG per match | 0.87 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 0.85 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.08 | 0.43 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| Playing style | Levadiakos | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| xTA per match | 0.88 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.68 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.66 |
| Passes per match | 328 | 229 |
| Passes against per match | 434 | 342 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.5 | 21.5 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Levadiakos | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.83 |
| Other | Levadiakos | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| The goalkeepers | Lucas Anacker (Levadiakos) | Yevhen Kucherenko (Panetolikos) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 10 |
| Save % | 83% | 91% |
| xG prevented | 87% | 76% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Levadiakos vs Panetolikos according to our model?
The model gives Levadiakos a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Levadiakos 59%, draw 23%, Panetolikos 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.