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    OFI CreteOFI CretePossession control
    2–0
    KifisiaKifisiaLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · OFI Crete (43%)Best value by the model: 2 · Kifisia @ 3.83 (+14 %)

    OFI Crete – Kifisia · Greek Super League

    1 · OFI Crete 43%X 27%30% Kifisia · 2

    Analysis: OFI Crete – Kifisia

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The head-to-head record between OFI Crete and Kifisia might be tempting to examine with two prior encounters since 2023, but its small sample size renders it less significant compared to the broader metrics of form and expected goals. A glance at those matches shows a draw and a win for Kifisia, suggesting they haven't been pushovers. However, the real story unfolds in the current season's dynamics and statistical underpinnings.

    Looking at the season so far, OFI Crete holds a slight edge with 3 points compared to Kifisia's 1, and their expected points (xPoints) mirror this with a 2.7 to 2.2 advantage. OFI's potential lies in their possession-based style which might play well at home, yet their xG and xGA indicate vulnerabilities. Interestingly, Kifisia's defensive approach has granted them a better xGA of 0.67 per match, contrasting OFI's more porous 1.4 xGA, suggesting a defensive solidity the hosts must breach.

    Expected goals highlight a subtle equilibrium — OFI Crete at 1.36 and Kifisia at 1.23. The most likely outcomes according to the model hover around low-scoring affairs, with a 1-1 draw leading the probabilities at 13%. The metrics lean slightly towards OFI Crete despite this balance, but the narrow margins point to an unpredictable clash where either side could edge a tight victory.

    In betting terms, the sharper play lies in the total goals market. The over 2.5 goals bet stands at odds of 2.12 with Betsson, where a marginal value exists given the model's 48% estimate. It’s not a broad chasm but an edge nonetheless, suggesting a cautious punt on goals in a match where fine margins could dictate the final score.

    OFI CreteOFI Crete
    Form LLWWL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #11xP/match #7Points #7
    Key players
    • Nikolaos AthanasiouLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
    • Georgios KanellopoulosCMxG 0.05 · xT -0.06
    • Christos SielisCBxG 0.25 · xT 0.06
    KifisiaKifisia
    Form WLDWD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #8
    Key players
    • Jorge Marcos Pombo EscobarCAMxG 0.44 · xT 0.18
    • Konstantinos RoukounakisCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
    • Roshon Felix Romar Jordan van EijmaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: OFI Crete 43% · Draw 27% · Kifisia 30%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - KifisiaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 13,14fair 12,83+2 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - OFI KretaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,25fair 10,47-21 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: OFI Crete – Kifisia

    Predicted score matrix

    Kifisia →
    OFI Crete →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.9%
    0–18.9%
    0–25.7%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–09.9%
    1–112.9%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.1%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–07.0%
    2–18.5%
    2–25.2%
    2–32.1%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–13.9%
    3–22.4%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.4%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,36–1,23
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,552%
    @1.75
    Over 2,548%
    @2.15EV+0%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance OFI Crete or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.03

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance OFI Crete or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals52%
    • Thiago Thomas Nuss to score16%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals48%
    • Jorge Marcos Pombo Escobar to score17%
    • Ilija Vukotić to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Kifisia30% probability@3.83PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
    • 2 · Kifisia30% probability@3.45BetssonEV+3%reference odds
    • Over 2.548% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · OFI CreteX2 · Kifisia
    Betsafe2.123.10
    EV+ 2%
    3.40
    Betsson2.123.10
    EV+ 3%
    3.45
    Nordicbet2.123.10
    EV+ 2%
    3.40
    Paddy Power2.153.253.00
    Pinnacle2.173.10
    EV+ 14%
    3.83

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    46 %41 %

    2.23 → 2.17

    X-3 %
    32 %27 %

    3.19 → 3.10

    2+14 %
    29 %24 %

    3.37 → 3.83

    Over 2,5-3 %
    47 %42 %

    2.21 → 2.15

    Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    OFI Crete 0Draw 1Kifisia 1
    Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    OFI Crete
    Kifisia
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    OFI Crete (3–2)
    Kifisia (1–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    OFI Crete
    Dimitrios Nikolaou: 147 passningar, xT 0.19NikolaouAthanasios Androutsos: 80 passningar, xT 0.35AndroutsosNikolaos Athanasiou: 76 passningar, xT 0.05AthanasiouAchilleas Poungouras: 64 passningar, xT 0.11PoungourasAndreas Bouchalakis: 60 passningar, xT 0.1BouchalakisKrešimir Krizmanić: 57 passningar, xT 0.05KrizmanićNikolaos Christogeorgos: 56 passningar, xT 0.04ChristogeorgosChristos Sielis: 50 passningar, xT 0.07SielisZisis Karachalios: 41 passningar, xT 0.08KarachaliosLorenzo Maria Dickmann: 40 passningar, xT 0.2DickmannAitor Cantalapiedra Fernández: 35 passningar, xT 0Fernández
    Kifisia
    Roshon Felix Romar Jordan van Eijma: 35 passningar, xT 0.01EijmaKonstantinos Roukounakis: 33 passningar, xT 0.12RoukounakisJorge Marcos Pombo Escobar: 32 passningar, xT 0.15EscobarLeroy Abanda: 27 passningar, xT 0.73AbandaHugo Filipe Gonçalves Martins de Sousa: 22 passningar, xT 0.01SousaWellington Moisés Ramírez Preciado: 20 passningar, xT 0.04PreciadoClément Jolibois Houilliez: 17 passningar, xT 0.03HouilliezBernardo Sousa Pereira Brites Martins: 14 passningar, xT 0.33MartinsJeremy Cornelis Jacobus Antonisse: 12 passningar, xT -0.17AntonisseAngelo Nicolas Sagal Tapia: 9 passningar, xT -0.01TapiaImam Seedy Muhammed Ali Jagne: 7 passningar, xT 0.29Jagne
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    OFI Crete
    Dimitrios Nikolaou: 147 passningar, xT 0.19NikolaouAthanasios Androutsos: 80 passningar, xT 0.35AndroutsosNikolaos Athanasiou: 76 passningar, xT 0.05AthanasiouAchilleas Poungouras: 64 passningar, xT 0.11PoungourasAndreas Bouchalakis: 60 passningar, xT 0.1BouchalakisKrešimir Krizmanić: 57 passningar, xT 0.05KrizmanićNikolaos Christogeorgos: 56 passningar, xT 0.04ChristogeorgosChristos Sielis: 50 passningar, xT 0.07SielisZisis Karachalios: 41 passningar, xT 0.08KarachaliosLorenzo Maria Dickmann: 40 passningar, xT 0.2DickmannAitor Cantalapiedra Fernández: 35 passningar, xT 0Fernández
    Kifisia
    Roshon Felix Romar Jordan van Eijma: 35 passningar, xT 0.01EijmaKonstantinos Roukounakis: 33 passningar, xT 0.12RoukounakisJorge Marcos Pombo Escobar: 32 passningar, xT 0.15EscobarLeroy Abanda: 27 passningar, xT 0.73AbandaHugo Filipe Gonçalves Martins de Sousa: 22 passningar, xT 0.01SousaWellington Moisés Ramírez Preciado: 20 passningar, xT 0.04PreciadoClément Jolibois Houilliez: 17 passningar, xT 0.03HouilliezBernardo Sousa Pereira Brites Martins: 14 passningar, xT 0.33MartinsJeremy Cornelis Jacobus Antonisse: 12 passningar, xT -0.17AntonisseAngelo Nicolas Sagal Tapia: 9 passningar, xT -0.01TapiaImam Seedy Muhammed Ali Jagne: 7 passningar, xT 0.29Jagne

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOFI CreteKifisia
    Points31
    xPoints2.72.2
    xG per match1.41.3
    xGA per match1.40.67
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.450.06
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.280.47
    Playing styleOFI CreteKifisia
    Build-up efficiency0.290.35
    Field tilt0.510.54
    xT per match0.831.6
    xTA per match0.80.92
    Won balls, offensive half2719
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.280.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.19
    Entries into the box per match912
    Entries into the box against1111
    Pass completion %0.820.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.73
    Passes per match428238
    Passes against per match313476
    Switches of play per match36.916.7
    Long balls per match4522
    Set piecesOFI CreteKifisia
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match30.98
    Corners against per match2.52
    xG per corner0.050
    xGA per corner against0.010
    First touch, offensive corners %0.671
    First touch, defensive corners %0.60.5
    OtherOFI CreteKifisia
    Throw-in control0.710.57
    The goalkeepersNikolaos Christogeorgos (OFI Crete)Wellington Moisés Ramírez Preciado (Kifisia)
    Saves94
    Save %82%80%
    xG prevented91%72%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    OFI Crete
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Kifisia
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins OFI Crete vs Kifisia according to our model?

    The model gives OFI Crete a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: OFI Crete 43%, draw 27%, Kifisia 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.