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    OlympiacosOlympiacosPossession & high press
    vs
    OFI CreteOFI CretePossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Olympiacos (79%)

    Olympiacos – OFI Crete · Greek Super League

    1 · Olympiacos 79%X 14%6% OFI Crete · 2

    Analysis: Olympiacos – OFI Crete

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    The numbers favor a decisive Olympiacos victory, with the most probable scorelines being 2-0 and 3-0. Olympiacos' expected goals (xG) of 2.58 dwarfs OFI's 0.77, underscoring the attacking imbalance. Despite both teams favoring possession styles, the hosts' high press is likely to unsettle OFI, creating more significant scoring opportunities. Moreover, the hosts' home win percentage of 70% emphasizes their strength at Karaiskakis Stadium.

    While the head-to-head sample since 2023 is limited to four matches, Olympiacos' perfect record in these encounters provides an additional psychological edge. However, it weighs less than the clear form advantages and the expected goals metrics, which all lean heavily towards the home side. Olympiacos not only have a points advantage but also lead in expected points and expected goals against, further solidifying their superiority.

    The market expects over 2.5 goals at 65%, and the model concurs, with Olympiacos alone projected near that threshold. With a 50% chance both teams might find the net, OFI could still manage to score, even as Olympiacos' significantly higher xG suggests they should cruise to a comfortable win.

    For those eyeing value, considering Olympiacos at -2 on the handicap with a bookmaker offering odds above 2.00 might be worth a look. It's a reflection of the model's strong belief in their ability to dominate this fixture comprehensively.

    OlympiacosOlympiacos
    Form WDWWD
    League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #5xP/match #1Points #3
    Key players
    • Ayoub El KaabiFxG 0.79 · xT 0.01
    • Gelson MartinsFxG 0.09 · xT 0.02
    • Emmanouil SaliakasRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.33
    OFI CreteOFI Crete
    Form LWWLW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #8xT #11xP/match #8Points #6
    Key players
    • Nikolaos AthanasiouLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
    • Christos SielisCBxG 0.25 · xT 0.06
    • Giannis ApostolakisCMxG 0.25 · xT 0.05

    Match prediction: Olympiacos – OFI Crete

    Predicted score matrix

    OFI Crete →
    Olympiacos →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.7%
    0–12.5%
    0–21.0%
    0–30.3%
    0–4+0.1%
    1
    1–08.9%
    1–17.1%
    1–22.7%
    1–30.7%
    1–4+0.2%
    2
    2–011.7%
    2–19.0%
    2–23.4%
    2–30.9%
    2–4+0.2%
    3
    3–010.1%
    3–17.7%
    3–23.0%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–012.1%
    4+–19.3%
    4+–23.5%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-012%
    2. 2.3-010%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.1-09%
    5. 5.3-18%
    Expected goals
    2,58–0,77
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    @2.70
    Over 2,565%
    @1.44

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Olympiacos to win79%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    67%

    Fair odds

    1.49

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Olympiacos to win79%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Ayoub El Kaabi to score44%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Ayoub El Kaabi to score44%
    • Ilija Vukotić to be booked26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · OlympiacosX2 · OFI Crete
    Bet3651.206.2511.00
    Paddy Power1.255.008.50
    Pinnacle1.206.7411.03

    Odds updated 11 Sept, 08:27

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    81 %76 %

    1.17 → 1.20

    X-8 %
    16 %11 %

    7.30 → 6.74

    2-11 %
    11 %6 %

    12.36 → 11.03

    Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 07/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Olympiacos 4Draw 0OFI Crete 0
    Goals: 9–0 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Olympiacos Piraeus are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
    • Olympiacos Piraeus have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
    • Olympiacos Piraeus win 70% of their home matches all-time (33 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Olympiacos
    OFI Crete
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Olympiacos (3–1)
    OFI Crete (5–2)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Olympiacos
    Santiago Hezze: 129 passningar, xT 0HezzeLorenzo Pirola: 122 passningar, xT 0.08PirolaPanagiotis Retsos: 85 passningar, xT 0.1RetsosZinedin Smajlović: 80 passningar, xT 0.09SmajlovićEmmanouil Saliakas: 76 passningar, xT 0.57SaliakasStefan Ortega Moreno: 74 passningar, xT 0.1MorenoBruno Onyemaechi: 72 passningar, xT 0.02OnyemaechiFrancisco Leonel Lima Silva Machado: 58 passningar, xT 0.19MachadoGelson Martins: 53 passningar, xT 0.01MartinsNayair Tiknizyan: 53 passningar, xT 0.43TiknizyanRodinei Marcelo de Almeida: 47 passningar, xT 0.2Almeida
    OFI Crete
    Dimitrios Nikolaou: 202 passningar, xT 0.24NikolaouNikolaos Athanasiou: 118 passningar, xT 0.08AthanasiouAndreas Bouchalakis: 107 passningar, xT 0.08BouchalakisNikolaos Christogeorgos: 98 passningar, xT 0.05ChristogeorgosAthanasios Androutsos: 97 passningar, xT 0.34AndroutsosAchilleas Poungouras: 95 passningar, xT 0.13PoungourasKrešimir Krizmanić: 80 passningar, xT 0.08KrizmanićKonstantinos Kostoulas: 68 passningar, xT 0.2KostoulasLorenzo Maria Dickmann: 57 passningar, xT 0.23DickmannChristos Sielis: 50 passningar, xT 0.07SielisGeorgios Kanellopoulos: 46 passningar, xT -0.06Kanellopoulos
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Olympiacos
    Santiago Hezze: 129 passningar, xT 0HezzeLorenzo Pirola: 122 passningar, xT 0.08PirolaPanagiotis Retsos: 85 passningar, xT 0.1RetsosZinedin Smajlović: 80 passningar, xT 0.09SmajlovićEmmanouil Saliakas: 76 passningar, xT 0.57SaliakasStefan Ortega Moreno: 74 passningar, xT 0.1MorenoBruno Onyemaechi: 72 passningar, xT 0.02OnyemaechiFrancisco Leonel Lima Silva Machado: 58 passningar, xT 0.19MachadoGelson Martins: 53 passningar, xT 0.01MartinsNayair Tiknizyan: 53 passningar, xT 0.43TiknizyanRodinei Marcelo de Almeida: 47 passningar, xT 0.2Almeida
    OFI Crete
    Dimitrios Nikolaou: 202 passningar, xT 0.24NikolaouNikolaos Athanasiou: 118 passningar, xT 0.08AthanasiouAndreas Bouchalakis: 107 passningar, xT 0.08BouchalakisNikolaos Christogeorgos: 98 passningar, xT 0.05ChristogeorgosAthanasios Androutsos: 97 passningar, xT 0.34AndroutsosAchilleas Poungouras: 95 passningar, xT 0.13PoungourasKrešimir Krizmanić: 80 passningar, xT 0.08KrizmanićKonstantinos Kostoulas: 68 passningar, xT 0.2KostoulasLorenzo Maria Dickmann: 57 passningar, xT 0.23DickmannChristos Sielis: 50 passningar, xT 0.07SielisGeorgios Kanellopoulos: 46 passningar, xT -0.06Kanellopoulos

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceOlympiacosOFI Crete
    Points76
    xPoints63.8
    xG per match1.91.1
    xGA per match0.551.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.48
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.23
    Playing styleOlympiacosOFI Crete
    Build-up efficiency0.340.29
    Field tilt0.70.42
    xT per match1.10.76
    xTA per match0.551
    Won balls, offensive half3524
    Pressing intensity0.210.23
    Pressing efficiency0.340.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.280.24
    Entries into the box per match178
    Entries into the box against713
    Pass completion %0.740.82
    Pass completion % under pressure0.690.75
    Passes per match382421
    Passes against per match223338
    Switches of play per match32.332.4
    Long balls per match4441
    Set piecesOlympiacosOFI Crete
    xG from free kicks0.050
    Corners per match9.62.3
    Corners against per match2.34.7
    xG per corner0.010.05
    xGA per corner against0.050.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.310.71
    First touch, defensive corners %0.570.5
    OtherOlympiacosOFI Crete
    Throw-in control0.720.79
    The goalkeepersStefan Ortega Moreno (Olympiacos)Nikolaos Christogeorgos (OFI Crete)
    Saves412
    Save %80%86%
    xG prevented35%93%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Olympiacos
    Fixtures, form & tips
    OFI Crete
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Olympiacos vs OFI Crete according to our model?

    The model gives Olympiacos a 79% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Olympiacos 79%, draw 14%, OFI Crete 6%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    OFI CreteOFI Crete
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.