Panathinaikos vs PAOK: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Greek Super League6 September 202628°10 km/h

Läs på svenska

Panathinaikos

PAOKBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Panathinaikos (48%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 4.00 (+19 %)

1 · Panathinaikos 48%X 24%28% PAOK · 2

48%

24%

28%

Analysis: Panathinaikos – PAOK

Oscar Nilsson · 31 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Panathinaikos take on PAOK in a matchup that pits home strength against resilient form. The hosts have a solid record, winning 59% of their home matches, while PAOK come in unbeaten in their last six league outings. Despite Panathinaikos' edge in model probabilities, this one promises to be tighter than it looks at first glance.

The numbers suggest a closely fought game. While Panathinaikos are favored with a 48% win probability, the 28% chance for PAOK to claim victory isn't negligible. The expected goals of 1.61 for the home side against 1.14 for the visitors point to a narrow advantage. The most likely scorelines are 1-1 and 1-0, hinting that defenses could play a decisive role.

However, the small head-to-head sample of eight games since 2023 shows a balanced rivalry, with Panathinaikos having the slight edge. This series alone isn't enough to dismantle the visiting side's current unbeaten streak. The over 2.5 goals market might catch the eye with a 52% chance, and 55% for both teams to score implies at least some offensive action.

For those hunting value, the over 3.5 goals market offers an intriguing 18% edge at odds of 3.95 with Betsson, and slightly less with Betsafe and Nordicbet. This suggests that if the game deviates from the expected tightness, it might just open up more than anticipated. Keep an eye on the odds as kickoff approaches — smart money could well chase these longer shots.

Panathinaikos

Form LDLLD

Key players

Andrews TettehFxG 0.40 · xT 0.09
Mateus Cardoso Lemos MartinsRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.16
Vicente TabordaRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.14

PAOK

Form DDDWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #4xP/match #5Points #1

Key players

Dimitris PelkasCAMxG 0.50 · xT 0.25
Abdul Rahman BabaLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
Andrija ZivkovicRWxG 0.59 · xT 0.34

Match prediction: Panathinaikos – PAOK

Predicted score matrix

PAOK →

Panathinaikos →

0–06.7%

0–16.9%

0–24.2%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.6%

1–09.9%

1–112.1%

1–26.7%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–08.3%

2–19.4%

2–25.4%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–04.4%

3–15.1%

3–22.9%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,61–1,14

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@1.81

Over 2,552%

@2.20EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Panathinaikos to win48%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Panathinaikos to win48%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Adam Gnezda Čerin to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Adam Gnezda Čerin to score27%
Giannis Michailidis to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.530% probability@4.00Paddy PowerEV+19%reference odds
1 · Panathinaikos48% probability@2.42PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
Over 4.515% probability@8.00Paddy PowerEV+16%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Panathinaikos	X	2 · PAOK
Betsafe	EV+ 14% 2.35	3.15	2.88
Betsson	EV+ 15% 2.38	3.20	2.90
Nordicbet	EV+ 14% 2.35	3.15	2.88
Paddy Power	EV+ 7% 2.20	3.10	3.00
Pinnacle	EV+ 17% 2.42	3.20	3.00

Odds updated 4 Sept, 05:38

Odds movement

10 %

41 %36 %

2.43 → 2.42

X-2 %

32 %27 %

3.25 → 3.20

2+2 %

35 %30 %

2.95 → 3.00

Over 2,5+1 %

50 %45 %

1.99 → 2.00

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 03/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Panathinaikos 3Draw 3PAOK 2

Goals: 10–9 (⌀ 2,4)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

PAOK Thessaloniki are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Panathinaikos Athens win 59% of their home matches all-time (32 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Panathinaikos

PAOK

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

PAOK (6–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

PAOK

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

PAOK

The goalkeepers	Panathinaikos	Aritz Elustondo (PAOK)
Saves	–	6
Save %	–	100%
xG prevented	–	100%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Panathinaikos vs PAOK according to our model?

The model gives Panathinaikos a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Panathinaikos 48%, draw 24%, PAOK 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.