PAOK vs Levadiakos: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Greek Super League23 August 202629°18 km/h

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PAOKPossession & high press

LevadiakosPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · PAOK (62%)

1 · PAOK 62%X 23%15% Levadiakos · 2

62%

23%

15%

Analysis: PAOK – Levadiakos

Erik Lindberg · 18 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Four wins on the trot for PAOK Thessaloniki against Levadiakos since 2023 lay the foundation for a compelling narrative in this Greek Super League clash. With a 66% home win rate from their 32 matches played at home, PAOK Thessaloniki are well-acquainted with victory within their fortress. Their possession-heavy, high-pressing style seems to have Levadiakos's number, and all the numbers agree.

62% is the model probability for a PAOK win, but it's the expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) figures that underline their superiority. With an xG of 1.90 compared to Levadiakos's 0.92, PAOK Thessaloniki are likely to carve out more quality chances. Their defensive resilience is further highlighted by an xGA of just 0.81, suggesting Levadiakos might struggle to break them down, despite sharing a similar xG per match at 1.6.

Levadiakos, meanwhile, approach with their own possession control style, but the gap in xPoints (PAOK's 52.9 against Levadiakos's 45.4) points to an uphill battle. The 53% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance for both teams to score make for intriguing bets, given the slight edge towards scoring in the odds. Yet, the most likely scorelines, 1-0, 2-0, or even 1-1 at 11% each, suggest a more conservative outcome may be on the cards.

A 2-0 win for PAOK Thessaloniki feels like the soundest prediction, one reflecting both the strength of their home form and Levadiakos's comparative vulnerabilities. For those looking at the betting markets, the edge is clear. With Bet365 offering odds of 1.80 for a PAOK Thessaloniki win, there's a hint of value in backing the home side to extend their head-to-head dominance.

PAOK

Form LWDDD

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #3xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Andrija ZivkovicRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.24
Georgios GiakoumakisFxG 0.64 · xT 0.06
Alexander JeremejeffFxG 0.43 · xT 0.01

Levadiakos

Form LWWWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #5xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Fabricio PedrozoFxG 0.50 · xT 0.06
Giannis KostiCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Triantafyllos TsaprasRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: PAOK – Levadiakos

Predicted score matrix

Levadiakos →

PAOK →

0–06.3%

0–15.2%

0–22.5%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–011.1%

1–110.7%

1–24.8%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.8%

2–19.9%

2–24.5%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–06.8%

3–16.2%

3–22.9%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–05.0%

4+–14.6%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-011%
2.2-011%
3.1-111%
4.2-110%
5.3-07%

Expected goals

1,90–0,92

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

–

Over 2,553%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

PAOK to win62%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

PAOK to win62%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Anestis Mythou to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Anestis Mythou to score28%
Enis Çokaj to be booked25%

Odds & value

No odds available yet.

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

PAOK 4Draw 0Levadiakos 0

Goals: 9–2 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

PAOK Thessaloniki win 66% of their home matches all-time (32 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

PAOK

Levadiakos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

PAOK (59–25)

Levadiakos (63–47)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

PAOK

Levadiakos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

PAOK

Levadiakos

The teams in numbers

Performance	PAOK	Levadiakos
Points	64	52
xPoints	52.9	45.4
xG per match	1.6	1.6
xGA per match	0.81	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.09	0.22

Playing style	PAOK	Levadiakos
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.65	0.53
xT per match	1.1	0.87
xTA per match	0.7	0.85
Won balls, offensive half	27	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.35
Entries into the box per match	15	11
Entries into the box against	9	11
Pass completion %	0.79	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.74
Passes per match	426	396
Passes against per match	264	290
Switches of play per match	35	34.8
Long balls per match	36	35

Set pieces	PAOK	Levadiakos
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.07
Corners per match	5.5	4.4
Corners against per match	3.6	4.5
xG per corner	0.06	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.09
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.48

Other	PAOK	Levadiakos
Throw-in control	0.7	0.66

The goalkeepers	Jiri Pavlenka (PAOK)	Yuriy Lodygin (Levadiakos)
Saves	40	61
Save %	71%	62%
xG prevented	52%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins PAOK vs Levadiakos according to our model?

The model gives PAOK a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PAOK 62%, draw 23%, Levadiakos 15%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.