Greek Super League27°16 km/h

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    VolosVolosPossession control
    1–1
    Iraklis 1908Iraklis 1908Low block & direct
    The model's lean: 2 · Iraklis 1908 (40%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 8.00 (+97 %)

    Volos – Iraklis 1908 · Greek Super League

    1 · Volos 37%X 23%40% Iraklis 1908 · 2

    Analysis: Volos – Iraklis 1908

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    Volos comes into this clash with a damning losing streak of six games, a pattern that weighs heavily against their claim for three points. Despite the hosts' struggles, the model surprisingly leans towards Iraklis 1908 with a 40% probability of winning, compared to Volos' 37%. Interestingly, while Iraklis is slightly favored, the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, showing a tight balance in expectations.

    Diving deeper, Volos shows stronger expected metrics across the board. They have an expected goals (xG) per match of 0.95 compared to a mere 0.42 for Iraklis, and a significantly better xGA (expected goals against) per match of 1.8 versus 3.0 for the visitors. This paints a picture of two struggling teams, but with Volos having slightly more going forward.

    Iraklis, known for their low defensive block and direct play, might find chances scarce against Volos, who prefer to control possession. Yet, the model gives Iraklis a slight edge, suggesting perhaps a resilience not fully captured by the expected goals data. Volos' edge in xPoints (0.7 vs. 0.5) and xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball (0.27 vs. 0.04) suggests they might capitalize on quick transitions.

    Despite the inclination towards a low-scoring affair, the model sees a 65% probability for over 2.5 goals. For sharp bettors, there's notable value in betting on over 4.5 goals at odds of 7.8 with Betsson, as the model rates this outcome at 25%, offering a staggering 92% edge. Given the numbers, while a 1-1 draw is reasonable, the potential for a high-scoring anomaly cannot be ignored, especially against the backdrop of defensive frailties.

    VolosVolos
    Form LLLLL
    League ranking xG #7xGA #8xT #8xP/match #9Points #10
    Key players
    • Hamza MendylLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.26
    • Hatim EssaoubiCBxG 0.25 · xT 0.05
    • Jorge Samuel Figueiredo FernandesFxG 0.32 · xT -0.07
    Iraklis 1908Iraklis 1908
    Form L
    League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #12xP/match #10Points #12
    Final score
    1 – 1
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Volos 37% · Draw 23% · Iraklis 1908 40%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - IraklisBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 16,38fair 7,78+111 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Volos FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,85fair 5,89+33 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Volos – Iraklis 1908

    Predicted score matrix

    Iraklis 1908 →
    Volos →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.8%
    0–15.2%
    0–24.3%
    0–32.2%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–06.0%
    1–110.1%
    1–27.6%
    1–34.0%
    1–4+2.2%
    2
    2–05.6%
    2–18.8%
    2–26.8%
    2–33.6%
    2–4+2.0%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–15.2%
    3–24.1%
    3–32.1%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–02.2%
    4+–13.5%
    4+–22.7%
    4+–31.4%
    4+–4+0.8%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.2-27%
    5. 5.1-06%
    Expected goals
    1,79–1,56
    Both teams to score
    66%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    @1.71
    Over 2,565%
    @2.20EV+40%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Iraklis 1908 or draw (X2)57%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.08

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 2 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Iraklis 1908 or draw (X2)57%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%

    Combined probability

    34%

    Fair odds

    2.97

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 2 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score66%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.79

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.525% probability@8.00Paddy PowerEV+97%reference odds
    • Over 4.525% probability@7.80BetssonEV+92%reference odds
    • Over 4.525% probability@7.60BetsafeEV+87%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · VolosX2 · Iraklis 1908
    Betsafe1.923.30
    EV+ 50%
    3.80
    Betsson1.923.34
    EV+ 52%
    3.83
    Nordicbet1.923.30
    EV+ 50%
    3.80
    Paddy Power2.003.20
    EV+ 46%
    3.70
    Pinnacle1.983.53
    EV+ 54%
    3.88

    Odds updated 29 Aug, 11:37

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Volos win since 26 August — the odds have shortened from 2.14 to 1.98 (−7%).

    1-7 %
    53 %43 %

    2.14 → 1.98

    X+4 %
    32 %22 %

    3.39 → 3.53

    2+15 %
    30 %20 %

    3.36 → 3.88

    Over 2,50 %
    49 %39 %

    2.18 → 2.19

    Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 26/08/2026 → 29/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Volos NPS have lost 6 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Volos
    Iraklis 1908
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Volos (0–2)
    Iraklis 1908 (0–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Volos
    Hamza Mendyl: 55 passningar, xT 0.21MendylGiannis Kargas: 41 passningar, xT 0.01KargasHatim Essaoubi: 32 passningar, xT 0.04EssaoubiKeidi Bare: 30 passningar, xT 0.06BareGeorgios Mygas: 28 passningar, xT 0.1MygasMarios Siampanis: 27 passningar, xT 0SiampanisMaximiliano Comba: 20 passningar, xT 0.05CombaJorge Samuel Figueiredo Fernandes: 17 passningar, xT -0.05FernandesLazaros Lamprou: 13 passningar, xT 0LamprouMatías Nahuel González: 11 passningar, xT -0.01GonzálezGustavo Furtado: 10 passningar, xT 0.17Furtado
    Iraklis 1908
    Carles Soria: 39 passningar, xT 0.05SoriaVasilios Sourlis: 36 passningar, xT 0.03SourlisSoufiane Chakla Mrioued: 27 passningar, xT 0.03MriouedMarco Krainz: 24 passningar, xT 0.03KrainzIñigo Sebastián Magaña: 23 passningar, xT 0.04MagañaPraxitelis Vouros: 20 passningar, xT 0.02VourosCarlos Rodríguez Moreno: 19 passningar, xT -0.05MorenoEulânio Ângelo Chipela Gomes: 19 passningar, xT -0.12GomesGiorgos Athanasiadis: 18 passningar, xT 0.01AthanasiadisKylian Kaïboué: 17 passningar, xT 0.01KaïbouéRob Nizet: 16 passningar, xT 0.01Nizet
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Volos
    Hamza Mendyl: 55 passningar, xT 0.21MendylGiannis Kargas: 41 passningar, xT 0.01KargasHatim Essaoubi: 32 passningar, xT 0.04EssaoubiKeidi Bare: 30 passningar, xT 0.06BareGeorgios Mygas: 28 passningar, xT 0.1MygasMarios Siampanis: 27 passningar, xT 0SiampanisMaximiliano Comba: 20 passningar, xT 0.05CombaJorge Samuel Figueiredo Fernandes: 17 passningar, xT -0.05FernandesLazaros Lamprou: 13 passningar, xT 0LamprouMatías Nahuel González: 11 passningar, xT -0.01GonzálezGustavo Furtado: 10 passningar, xT 0.17Furtado
    Iraklis 1908
    Carles Soria: 39 passningar, xT 0.05SoriaVasilios Sourlis: 36 passningar, xT 0.03SourlisSoufiane Chakla Mrioued: 27 passningar, xT 0.03MriouedMarco Krainz: 24 passningar, xT 0.03KrainzIñigo Sebastián Magaña: 23 passningar, xT 0.04MagañaPraxitelis Vouros: 20 passningar, xT 0.02VourosCarlos Rodríguez Moreno: 19 passningar, xT -0.05MorenoEulânio Ângelo Chipela Gomes: 19 passningar, xT -0.12GomesGiorgos Athanasiadis: 18 passningar, xT 0.01AthanasiadisKylian Kaïboué: 17 passningar, xT 0.01KaïbouéRob Nizet: 16 passningar, xT 0.01Nizet

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVolosIraklis 1908
    Points00
    xPoints0.70.5
    xG per match0.950.42
    xGA per match1.83
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.270.04
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.740.88
    Playing styleVolosIraklis 1908
    Build-up efficiency0.30.27
    Field tilt0.60.35
    xT per match0.730.12
    xTA per match0.241.7
    Won balls, offensive half2530
    Pressing intensity0.230.26
    Pressing efficiency0.260.21
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.180.14
    Entries into the box per match107
    Entries into the box against816
    Pass completion %0.780.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.77
    Passes per match307308
    Passes against per match398482
    Switches of play per match39.336.4
    Long balls per match3236
    Set piecesVolosIraklis 1908
    xG from free kicks0.350.05
    Corners per match22
    Corners against per match4.95.1
    xG per corner00
    xGA per corner against0.010.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.2
    OtherVolosIraklis 1908
    Throw-in control0.710.57
    The goalkeepersMatías Nahuel González (Volos)Giorgos Athanasiadis (Iraklis 1908)
    Saves17
    Save %100%64%
    xG prevented100%41%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Volos
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Iraklis 1908
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Volos vs Iraklis 1908 according to our model?

    The model gives Iraklis 1908 a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Volos 37%, draw 23%, Iraklis 1908 40%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 66% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.