Volos vs Olympiacos: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Greek Super League5 September 202627°11 km/h

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VolosPossession control

1–1

OlympiacosPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Olympiacos (74%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.00 (+12 %)

1 · Volos 9%X 17%74% Olympiacos · 2

17%

74%

Analysis: Volos – Olympiacos

Sofia Andersson · 4 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A commanding 74% win probability underscores Olympiacos's dominance as they face Volos in the Greek Super League. The numbers paint a clear picture: the visitors should have little trouble asserting their superiority. Olympiacos has showcased an unbeaten run in their last five league matches, which is backed by their potent expected goals metric of 2.34. This starkly contrasts with Volos's more modest 0.76, revealing a likely lopsided affair.

Despite the small sample size of four head-to-head matches since 2023, Olympiacos's clean sweep against Volos adds psychological weight. However, it's their current form, rather than these past meetings, that provides the strongest indication of the expected outcome. With Olympiacos excelling in both possession and pressing, Volos's control-oriented approach seems unlikely to shift the balance.

The model suggests a 0-2 finish as the most probable scoreline, predicting that Olympiacos will capitalize on their attacking strength while maintaining defensive resilience. With an expected goals against of just 0.6 per match, Olympiacos is well-equipped to stifle Volos's attempts to find the net. The hosts' struggles, highlighted by their mere point tally and inferior xPoints of 2.2, further delineate the uphill battle they face.

The 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals indicates potential value in the goals market, reflecting Olympiacos's attacking prowess. However, a 48% probability for both teams to score suggests Volos might still struggle to break through. The strongest betting angle emerges from this imbalance: backing Olympiacos to win to nil, considering the odds skew toward a defensive stronghold by the visitors.

Assessing the odds from a bookmaker like Bet365 or similar, if they offer favorable prices on Olympiacos to win without conceding, it presents a compelling value bet. This angle aligns tightly with the model's assessment and Olympiacos's demonstrated form.

Volos

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #6xP/match #9Points #9

Key players

Jorge Samuel Figueiredo FernandesFxG 0.23 · xT -0.02
Vasileios GrosdisCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
Hamza MendylLWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.26

Olympiacos

Form DWDWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #2xP/match #2Points #4

Key players

Ayoub El KaabiFxG 0.87 · xT 0.02
Gelson MartinsFxG 0.12 · xT 0.03
Santiago HezzeCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.03

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Volos 9% · Draw 17% · Olympiacos 74%

Match prediction: Volos – Olympiacos

Predicted score matrix

Olympiacos →

Volos →

0–04.7%

0–110.3%

0–212.3%

0–39.6%

0–4+9.7%

1–03.2%

1–18.3%

1–29.4%

1–37.3%

1–4+7.4%

2–01.3%

2–13.0%

2–23.6%

2–32.8%

2–4+2.8%

3–00.3%

3–10.8%

3–20.9%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.7%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.2%

4+–20.2%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-212%
2.0-110%
3.0-310%
4.1-29%
5.1-18%

Expected goals

0,76–2,34

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.12

Over 2,560%

@1.75EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Olympiacos to win74%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Olympiacos to win74%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Ayoub El Kaabi to score48%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Ayoub El Kaabi to score48%
Ioannis Bouzoukis to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.537% probability@3.00Paddy PowerEV+12%reference odds
Over 4.520% probability@5.50Paddy PowerEV+11%reference odds
1 · Volos9% probability@11.52PinnacleEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Volos	X	2 · Olympiacos
Paddy Power	10.00	5.00	1.22
Pinnacle	EV+ 6% 11.52	5.81	1.27

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

Odds movement

1-1 %

11 %6 %

11.62 → 11.52

X-7 %

18 %13 %

6.27 → 5.81

2+5 %

78 %73 %

1.21 → 1.27

Pinnacle · 18 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Volos 0Draw 0Olympiacos 4

Goals: 0–8 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Greek Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

Olympiacos Piraeus are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Volos

Olympiacos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Volos (1–3)

Olympiacos (2–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Volos

Olympiacos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Volos

Olympiacos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Volos	Olympiacos
Points	1	6
xPoints	2.2	4.2
xG per match	1.2	2.1
xGA per match	1.1	0.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.43	0.06

Playing style	Volos	Olympiacos
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.72	0.67
xT per match	1	1.4
xTA per match	0.3	0.52
Won balls, offensive half	30	35
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.29
Entries into the box per match	13	18
Entries into the box against	5	9
Pass completion %	0.77	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.64	0.7
Passes per match	330	377
Passes against per match	285	246
Switches of play per match	33.1	25.9
Long balls per match	33	38

Set pieces	Volos	Olympiacos
xG from free kicks	0.26	0.04
Corners per match	2	10.1
Corners against per match	3.5	3.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.75	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.57

Other	Volos	Olympiacos
Throw-in control	0.73	0.69

The goalkeepers	Matías Nahuel González (Volos)	Stefan Ortega Moreno (Olympiacos)
Saves	1	4
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Volos

Fixtures, form & tips

Olympiacos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Volos vs Olympiacos according to our model?

The model gives Olympiacos a 74% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Volos 9%, draw 17%, Olympiacos 74%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.