AC Milan vs Venezia: Prediction & Odds (28 Aug 2026)

Serie A28 August 2026San Siro, Milano25°12,6 mm16 km/h

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AC MilanBalanced & physical

Venezia

The model's lean: 1 · AC Milan (51%)Best value by the model: 2 · Venezia @ 10.00 (+132 %)

1 · AC Milan 51%X 26%23% Venezia · 2

51%

26%

23%

Analysis: AC Milan – Venezia

Anna Karlsson · 23 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: Two matches since 2021, two victories for the Rossoneri. While this head-to-head sample is small and less telling than the overall form, it adds a psychological layer to this clash. AC Milan, boasting a model probability of 51% to win, will be looking to maintain their dominant streak against Venezia. The home side's expected goals tally of 2.02 suggests they have the upper hand in converting chances, reinforced by their impressive record of winning 58% of their matches at San Siro.

Venezia, on the other hand, are up against it. With a 23% chance of snatching a win and an expected goals figure of just 1.03, the visitors face an uphill battle. Their task is compounded by the rain forecast. The 20.4 mm expected at kickoff can dampen attacking plays, likely limiting goal-scoring opportunities and affecting both teams' rhythm. But it is already factored into the numbers, reinforcing the idea that Milan's robust attack is still likely to shine.

With 59% leaning towards over 2.5 goals and a 56% expectation that both teams will score, the match is set for at least a couple of goals, even if it doesn’t run riot. The model's most likely scorelines of 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0 underscore a narrow margin of victory for Milan, suggesting the game may be closer than the Rossoneri's home win percentage implies.

A 2-1 result seems the most plausible outcome given the conditions and models. Milan's solid home form and their historical edge over Venezia support a lean toward the hosts, though the game may be tightly contested, with the scales tipping slightly in favor of the home side.

AC Milan

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #7xT #4xP/match #5Points #5

Key players

Alexis SaelemaekersRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.18
Christopher NkunkuFxG 0.47 · xT 0.06
Adrien RabiotCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.15

Venezia

Form LDWLL

Key players

Alessio ZerbinRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.16
Kike PerezCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
Alfred DuncanCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: AC Milan – Venezia

Predicted score matrix

Venezia →

AC Milan →

0–05.0%

0–14.6%

0–22.5%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–09.3%

1–110.2%

1–25.1%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.7%

2–110.0%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.5%

3–16.7%

3–23.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–05.2%

4+–15.4%

4+–22.8%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-010%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,02–1,03

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@2.04

Over 2,559%

@1.89EV+11%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

AC Milan to win51%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

AC Milan to win51%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Niclas Füllkrug to score32%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Niclas Füllkrug to score32%
Michael Svoboda to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Venezia23% probability@10.00Betfair ExchangeEV+132%reference odds
2 · Venezia23% probability@9.40BetssonEV+118%reference odds
2 · Venezia23% probability@9.40NordicbetEV+118%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · AC Milan	X	2 · Venezia
Betfair Exchange	1.33	EV+ 38% 5.40	EV+ 132% 10.00
Betsafe	1.39	EV+ 11% 4.35	EV+ 115% 9.30
Betsson	1.39	EV+ 11% 4.35	EV+ 118% 9.40
Nordicbet	1.39	EV+ 11% 4.35	EV+ 118% 9.40
Pinnacle	1.39	EV+ 22% 4.77	EV+ 104% 8.79

Odds updated 26 Aug, 09:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

72 %67 %

1.37 → 1.39

X-2 %

22 %17 %

4.86 → 4.77

2-6 %

13 %8 %

9.35 → 8.79

Over 2,5-2 %

55 %50 %

1.87 → 1.84

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

AC Milan 2Draw 0Venezia 0

Goals: 6–0 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

AC Milan win 58% of their home matches all-time (95 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

AC Milan

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

AC Milan (53–35)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

AC Milan

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

AC Milan

The goalkeepers	Mike Maignan (AC Milan)	Venezia
Saves	109	–
Save %	76%	–
xG prevented	55%	–
Claims	0 (0%)	–

Frequently asked questions

Who wins AC Milan vs Venezia according to our model?

The model gives AC Milan a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AC Milan 51%, draw 26%, Venezia 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.