Fiorentina vs Frosinone: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Serie A29 August 2026Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze28°0,3 mm19 km/h

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Fiorentina

FrosinoneLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Fiorentina (49%)Best value by the model: 2 · Frosinone @ 6.20 (+57 %)

1 · Fiorentina 49%X 25%25% Frosinone · 2

49%

25%

Analysis: Fiorentina – Frosinone

Oscar Nilsson · 24 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

In the two encounters since 2021 between Fiorentina and Frosinone, the home side has had the upper hand with one victory and one draw. However, this small sample doesn't overshadow the form and expected goals, which suggest a more competitive clash this time around. The odds indicate a slight edge towards Fiorentina, given a 49% probability of winning, yet the expected goals tell a different story: 1.48 for the hosts against 1.28 for the visitors. This suggests a closely matched contest, with both sides capable of finding the net.

Fiorentina's home advantage is reflected in the most likely scorelines, with a 1-1 draw at 12% and a narrow 1-0 victory at 9% probability. The model's 52% lean towards over 2.5 goals hints at a potentially open game, yet the anticipated rain could suppress the scoring just enough to bring the under into play. Both teams to score is priced at 56%, indicating a decent chance of action at both ends.

While the hosts are the favorites, the market may be overlooking Frosinone's potential. Despite Fiorentina's marginal preference by the model, the away side's odds present an attractive opportunity. Betsson and Nordicbet both offer 5.4 for a Frosinone win, while Betsafe offers 5.35, and there's significant value here. The model's 25% win probability for the visitors translates into a substantial 37% edge with Betsson and Nordicbet (36% with Betsafe), a notable discrepancy for those keen to back an underdog with potential.

The most enticing angle here is clearly the value on Frosinone to win at these odds. Despite Fiorentina's slight edge at home, the numbers make a compelling case for a punt on the visitors. A 1-1 draw or a narrow 2-1 upset could well be on the cards, especially if the rain disrupts the home side's rhythm.

Fiorentina

Form DLDWD

Key players

Moise KeanFxG 0.57 · xT 0.02
DodôRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.21
Roberto PiccoliFxG 0.30 · xT -0.02

Frosinone

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #16xGA #12xT #15xP/match #14Points #12

Key players

Giorgio CittadiniCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
Giacomo CaloCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
Gabriele CalvaniCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.02

Match prediction: Fiorentina – Frosinone

Predicted score matrix

Frosinone →

Fiorentina →

0–06.7%

0–17.8%

0–25.2%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.0%

1–112.4%

1–27.7%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.4%

2–07.0%

2–18.9%

2–25.7%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.0%

3–03.4%

3–14.4%

3–22.8%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,48–1,28

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@2.06

Over 2,552%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fiorentina to win49%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fiorentina to win49%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Moise Bioty Kean to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Moise Bioty Kean to score22%
Ilario Monterisi to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Frosinone25% probability@6.20Betfair ExchangeEV+57%reference odds
2 · Frosinone25% probability@5.45BetssonEV+38%reference odds
2 · Frosinone25% probability@5.45NordicbetEV+38%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fiorentina	X	2 · Frosinone
Betfair Exchange	1.51	EV+ 12% 4.40	EV+ 57% 6.20
Betsafe	1.62	3.85	EV+ 37% 5.40
Betsson	1.65	3.90	EV+ 38% 5.45
Nordicbet	1.65	3.90	EV+ 38% 5.45
Pinnacle	1.65	EV+ 4% 4.09	EV+ 33% 5.23

Odds updated 25 Aug, 13:36

Odds movement

10 %

61 %56 %

1.65 → 1.65

X+1 %

26 %21 %

4.06 → 4.09

20 %

21 %16 %

5.22 → 5.23

Over 2,5-1 %

54 %49 %

1.88 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 24/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Fiorentina 1Draw 1Frosinone 0

Goals: 6–2 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fiorentina

Frosinone

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Frosinone (0–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Frosinone

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Frosinone

The goalkeepers	Fiorentina	Lorenzo Palmisani (Frosinone)
Saves	–	4
Save %	–	80%
xG prevented	–	73%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fiorentina vs Frosinone according to our model?

The model gives Fiorentina a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fiorentina 49%, draw 25%, Frosinone 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.