Roma vs Atalanta: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Serie A5 September 2026Stadio Olimpico, Roma27°16 km/h

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RomaPossession control

AtalantaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Roma (52%)

1 · Roma 52%X 25%23% Atalanta · 2

52%

25%

23%

Analysis: Roma – Atalanta

Sofia Andersson · 28 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Roma's current form is a force to be reckoned with, as they ride a wave of six consecutive victories. This momentum is reflected not just in their results, but in the underlying numbers as well. The model probabilities favor the hosts at 52% to claim the win, with a draw at 25% and Atalanta trailing behind at 23%. With Roma consistently finding the back of the net in their last 16 league matches, the expectation is for them to continue this trend against a physical Atalanta side.

Despite Atalanta's ability to balance possession and physicality, they face a daunting task at the Stadio Olimpico. Roma's expected goals (xG) sit at 1.64 compared to Atalanta's 1.00, indicating a clear attacking advantage for the home side. Furthermore, the xPoints heavily lean towards Roma at 2.8 versus Atalanta's 0.5, underscoring the anticipated dominance of the home side in this fixture.

Though Atalanta has a favorable head-to-head record over the past four encounters with three wins and a draw, this small sample size is overshadowed by Roma's current explosive form and superior xG metrics. Roma's xGA per match is just 0.3, while Atalanta's defensive frailty is apparent at 2.3 xGA per match. This suggests the hosts will likely have ample opportunities to convert their possession into goals.

The most likely scorelines point towards a tight affair, with 1-1 at 12% and 1-0 at 11%. However, given the data, a 2-0 victory for Roma (10%) reflects both their scoring prowess and defensive solidity. While the over 2.5 goals is nearly a coin toss at 49%, the match leans towards a more restrained affair reflective of Roma's defensive discipline.

Roma

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #2xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Donyell MalenFxG 0.71 · xT 0.11
Zeki CelikRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
Wesley FrançaLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18

Atalanta

Form DWLDW

League ranking xG #13xGA #18xT #11xP/match #19Points #6

Key players

Nikola KrstovićFxG 0.66 · xT 0.05
Lorenzo BernasconiLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
Marten De RoonCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Roma – Atalanta

Predicted score matrix

Atalanta →

Roma →

0–07.5%

0–16.8%

0–23.6%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–011.4%

1–112.0%

1–25.8%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.6%

2–19.6%

2–24.8%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.3%

3–15.3%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.1%

4+–13.1%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,64–1,00

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.85

Over 2,549%

@2.06EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Roma to win52%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Roma to win52%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Leon Patrick Bailey Butler to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Leon Patrick Bailey Butler to score28%
Gianluca Mancini to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Roma52% probability@1.98Betfair ExchangeEV+4%reference odds
Over 2.549% probability@2.06Betfair ExchangeEV+1%reference odds
1 · Roma52% probability@1.92PinnacleEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Roma	X	2 · Atalanta
Bet365	1.90	3.30	4.33
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 4% 1.98	3.65	4.30
Betsafe	1.90	3.40	4.25
Betsson	1.90	3.40	4.30
Nordicbet	1.90	3.40	4.30
Pinnacle	EV+ 0% 1.92	3.62	4.16

Odds updated 31 Aug, 16:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Roma 0Draw 1Atalanta 3

Goals: 2–6 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

AS Roma come into this round on 6 straight wins.
AS Roma have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.
AS Roma win 62% of their home matches all-time (96 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Roma

Atalanta

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Roma (4–0)

Atalanta (2–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Roma

Atalanta

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Roma

Atalanta

The teams in numbers

Performance	Roma	Atalanta
Points	3	3
xPoints	2.8	0.5
xG per match	3.3	0.88
xGA per match	0.3	2.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.74	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.39

Playing style	Roma	Atalanta
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.33
Field tilt	0.68	0.46
xT per match	2	1
xTA per match	0.49	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	21	13
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.39	0.17
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.11
Entries into the box per match	18	9
Entries into the box against	4	13
Pass completion %	0.84	0.86
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.83
Passes per match	503	551
Passes against per match	291	428
Switches of play per match	31.2	31.6
Long balls per match	32	32

Set pieces	Roma	Atalanta
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	2.1	4.1
Corners against per match	3.1	4.1
xG per corner	0	0.01
xGA per corner against	0	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.25

Other	Roma	Atalanta
Throw-in control	0.75	0.79

The goalkeepers	Mile Svilar (Roma)	Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta)
Saves	5	7
Save %	100%	88%
xG prevented	100%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Roma vs Atalanta according to our model?

The model gives Roma a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Roma 52%, draw 25%, Atalanta 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.