01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Atalanta to win70%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Serie AGewiss Stadium, Bergamo19°4,2 mm6 km/h
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AtalantaBalanced & physicalvs
CagliariBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Atalanta (70%)
Atalanta – Cagliari · Serie A
1 · Atalanta 70%X 17%13% Cagliari · 2
70%
17%
13%
Analysis: Atalanta – Cagliari
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The TEXT contains a factual conflict: it claims Atalanta "clearly shine" in expected goals without qualification, but the season-level xG per match stat actually favors Cagliari (0.62 vs 0.84), a fact the text ignores while still asserting an unqualified advantage for Atalanta. Here is the corrected text:
In their last four encounters since 2021, the hosts have held a slight edge against Cagliari, winning twice, sharing the spoils once, and losing once. However, with such a small sample size, these head-to-head results carry less weight than current form and this match's expected goals model, where Atalanta clearly shine. Atalanta's expected goals for this match, 2.01, dwarfs Cagliari's 0.86, underscoring a significant offensive advantage for the home side in this specific fixture — even though on a season-wide basis, Cagliari actually holds a slight xG-per-match edge (0.84 vs Atalanta's 0.62).
Atalanta have also managed to earn six points compared to Cagliari's three, demonstrating a consistent ability to translate their chances into results. Despite both teams being categorized as balanced and physical, Atalanta seems to execute this style more effectively. Their defensive numbers further strengthen this impression: Atalanta concede an xGA of 2.3 per match, slightly better than Cagliari's 2.4. Such marginal differences suggest a game likely to be decided by fine margins.
The model assigns a hefty 70% probability to an Atalanta win, aligning with the most probable scorelines of 2-0 and 1-0, each at 11% likelihood. These figures hint at a narrow but controlled victory for the home team. Coupled with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams finding the net, the undercurrent of the match points to a cautious yet effective performance from the hosts.
From a betting perspective, Atalanta to win at odds of 1.58 offers a 10% value edge with both Betsson and Nordicbet. If you're looking for something with a bit more risk, the over 3.5 goals at odds of 3.4 with Betsafe presents another 10% edge. Yet, given the lean towards a solid Atalanta display, securing the home win seems the more stable play.
AtalantaForm LDWWL
League ranking xG #20xGA #18xT #18xP/match #20Points #8
Key players
- Nikola KrstovićFxG 0.34 · xT -0.01
- Odilon KossounouCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
- Mario PasalicCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.00
CagliariForm LWWWL
League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #12xP/match #18Points #13
Key players
- Alessandro RomanoCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
- Michel AdopoRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Adam ObertLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Atalanta – Cagliari
Predicted score matrix
Cagliari →
Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–14.6%
0–22.1%
0–30.6%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–011.1%
1–110.1%
1–24.2%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.3%
2
2–011.4%
2–19.9%
2–24.2%
2–31.2%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–07.6%
3–16.6%
3–22.8%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–06.1%
4+–15.2%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-011%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
2,01–0,86
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@1.93
Over 2,555%
@1.94EV+5%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Atalanta to win70%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Nikola Krstović to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Nikola Krstović to score31%
- Joseph Liteta to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Atalanta70% probability@1.58BetssonEV+10%reference odds
- 1 · Atalanta70% probability@1.58NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
- Over 3.532% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Atalanta | X | 2 · Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 8% 1.55 | 3.85 | 6.30 |
| Betsson | EV+ 10% 1.58 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 10% 1.58 | 3.90 | 6.40 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 9% 1.57 | 4.18 | 6.05 |
Odds updated 8 Sept, 05:16
Odds movement
1+3 %
64 %59 %
1.53 → 1.57
X+2 %
26 %21 %
4.09 → 4.18
2-2 %
18 %13 %
6.16 → 6.05
Over 2,5-2 %
52 %47 %
1.98 → 1.94
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 08/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAtalanta 2Draw 1Cagliari 1
Goals: 5–4 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Atalanta
Cagliari
Atalanta (4–3)
Cagliari (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Atalanta
Cagliari
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Atalanta
Cagliari
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Atalanta | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 6 | 3 |
| xPoints | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 0.62 | 0.84 |
| xGA per match | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| Playing style | Atalanta | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 0.7 | 0.91 |
| xTA per match | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 14 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.18 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.12 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 23 | 23 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 398 | 375 |
| Passes against per match | 536 | 510 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.1 | 14.5 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Atalanta | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 2 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 6.6 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| Other | Atalanta | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| The goalkeepers | Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta) | Elia Caprile (Cagliari) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 7 |
| Save % | 86% | 88% |
| xG prevented | 78% | 95% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Atalanta vs Cagliari according to our model?
The model gives Atalanta a 70% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atalanta 70%, draw 17%, Cagliari 13%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.