01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Atalanta to win66%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Serie AGewiss Stadium, Bergamo22°29,6 mm6 km/h
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Atalantavs
SassuoloThe model's lean: 1 · Atalanta (66%)
Atalanta – Sassuolo · Serie A
1 · Atalanta 66%X 21%13% Sassuolo · 2
66%
21%
13%
Analysis: Atalanta – Sassuolo
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Four wins out of six meetings since 2021 paint a picture of dominance for Atalanta when it comes to their encounters with Sassuolo. However, the small sample size tempers the reliability of this historical edge. What stands out more convincingly is Atalanta's current run, having found the net in 12 consecutive league matches — a streak that suggests Sassuolo's defense will be tested thoroughly.
With Atalanta's probability of victory pegged at 66% by the model, it's clear that they are the frontrunners in this clash, a notion reinforced by expected goals: Atalanta 1.93 to Sassuolo's 0.92. The odds offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet at 1.55 for an Atalanta win reflect a slight value edge, with the model's assessment aligning the odds at an equivalent 66% probability — a tidy 2% advantage.
Sassuolo's chances seem slim at a modest 13%, and given that the weather forecast of 23.8°C with 2.1 mm of rain could dampen offensive flair, a conservative scoreline is most likely. The numbers whisper of a tight contest leaning towards Atalanta — a 1-0 or 2-0 victory, each at 11% likelihood, fits the script. Rain could moderate the pace, potentially limiting the goal count, though the over 2.5 goals probability still edges past the halfway mark at 54%.
Atalanta, with their relentless scoring form, look poised to exploit Sassuolo's defensive vulnerabilities. While the potential for both teams to score sits at 52%, the edge is sharpest on a home win. With three bookmakers offering a slightly profitable edge on an Atalanta victory at odds of 1.55, the smart money might just sit comfortably in Bergamo.
AtalantaForm WWWWL
Key players
- Gianluca ScamaccaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.02
- Teun KoopmeinersCAMxG 0.20 · xT 0.29
- Giorgio ScalviniCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15
SassuoloForm LWLLD
Key players
- Armand LaurientéLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.20
- Domenico BerardiRWxG 0.46 · xT 0.32
- Nedim BajramiFxG 0.13 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: Atalanta – Sassuolo
Predicted score matrix
Sassuolo →
Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.1%
0–15.0%
0–22.5%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.9%
1–110.6%
1–24.7%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.8%
2–19.9%
2–24.6%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–06.9%
3–16.4%
3–22.9%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.2%
4+–14.8%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-011%
- 2.2-011%
- 3.1-111%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,93–0,92
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.21EV+1%
Over 2,554%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Atalanta to win66%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Mario Pašalić to score53%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Mario Pašalić to score53%
- Pedro Mba Obiang Avomo to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Atalanta66% probability@1.55BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Atalanta66% probability@1.55BetssonEV+2%reference odds
- 1 · Atalanta66% probability@1.55NordicbetEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Atalanta | X | 2 · Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.90 |
| Betsson | EV+ 2% 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 2% 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.95 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 19:36
Odds movement
10 %
64 %59 %
1.55 → 1.55
X0 %
25 %20 %
4.20 → 4.20
20 %
18 %13 %
5.95 → 5.95
Over 2,5-2 %
59 %54 %
1.71 → 1.68
Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesAtalanta 4Draw 0Sassuolo 2
Goals: 10–5 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 6 meetings.
- Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
Atalanta (72–42)
Sassuolo (43–76)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Atalanta
Sassuolo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Atalanta
Sassuolo
| The goalkeepers | Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta) | Andrea Consigli (Sassuolo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 83 | 104 |
| Save % | 74% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 55% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Atalanta vs Sassuolo according to our model?
The model gives Atalanta a 66% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atalanta 66%, draw 21%, Sassuolo 13%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.