01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bologna to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
Serie AStadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna24°11,1 mm18 km/h
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Bolognavs
LazioThe model's lean: 1 · Bologna (48%)
Bologna – Lazio · Serie A
1 · Bologna 48%X 29%23% Lazio · 2
48%
29%
23%
Analysis: Bologna – Lazio
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Bologna finds itself as a slight favorite in this matchup against Lazio, with a 48% chance of winning according to the model. The most likely outcome is a narrow 1-0 victory for the home side, reflecting Bologna's expected goals tally of 1.36 compared to Lazio's 0.90. Despite Lazio's unbeaten run over the last seven league matches, the odds are stacked against them this time, partly due to Bologna's respectable head-to-head record since 2021, with three wins out of six encounters—a small sample but noteworthy.
Lazio may be riding a wave of form, but Bologna's recent performances and the expected weather conditions play into their hands. The forecasted rain could suppress scoring chances, as reflected in the model’s modest 39% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. This game's complexion suggests a low-scoring affair, something Bologna appears more adept at navigating, as indicated by the 14% likelihood of a 1-0 scoreline.
Bologna starts with a concrete home advantage, further emphasized by the value proposition in the betting markets. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering home at odds of 2.22, there's a quantifiable 6% edge based on the model’s assessment. This presents a sharp angle for the value-seeking bettor, especially when the numbers align so decisively in Bologna's favor.
Forget the unbeaten streak Lazio is riding; this is a game that leans heavily towards Bologna. A 1-0 victory appears the most plausible outcome, with under 2.5 goals as the safer bet. Ultimately, the value is squarely with Bologna at 2.22, a price that holds notable appeal given the model’s confidence in a home win.
BolognaForm DDWDL
Key players
- Lewis FergusonCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.08
- Jhon Janer LucumíCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
- Sam BeukemaCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
LazioForm WDWDD
Key players
- Luis AlbertoCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.23
- Felipe AndersonRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.22
- Alessio RomagnoliCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Bologna – Lazio
Predicted score matrix
Lazio →
Bologna →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.8%
0–19.0%
0–24.2%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–013.8%
1–113.1%
1–25.7%
1–31.7%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–09.7%
2–18.7%
2–23.9%
2–31.2%
2–4+0.3%
3
3–04.4%
3–14.0%
3–21.8%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–02.0%
4+–11.8%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-014%
- 2.1-113%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.2-010%
- 5.0-19%
Expected goals
1,36–0,90
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,561%
@1.68EV+2%
Over 2,539%
@2.21
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bologna to win48%
- Under 2.5 goals61%
- Oussama El Azzouzi to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals39%
- Valentín Mariano José Castellanos Giménez to score24%
- Alessio Romagnoli to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Bologna48% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Bologna48% probability@2.22BetssonEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Bologna48% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bologna | X | 2 · Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 6% 2.22 | 3.15 | 3.45 |
| Betsson | EV+ 6% 2.22 | 3.15 | 3.45 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 6% 2.22 | 3.15 | 3.45 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 15:36
Odds movement
10 %
45 %40 %
2.22 → 2.22
X0 %
32 %27 %
3.15 → 3.15
20 %
30 %25 %
3.45 → 3.45
Over 2,50 %
46 %41 %
2.21 → 2.21
Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesBologna 3Draw 1Lazio 2
Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- SS Lazio are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Bologna (54–32)
Lazio (49–40)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bologna
Lazio
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bologna
Lazio
| The goalkeepers | Łukasz Skorupski (Bologna) | Ivan Provedel (Lazio) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 83 | 90 |
| Save % | 74% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bologna vs Lazio according to our model?
The model gives Bologna a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bologna 48%, draw 29%, Lazio 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.