01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Bologna to win56%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Serie AStadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna28°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
BolognaBalanced & physicalvs
SassuoloBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Bologna (56%)
Bologna – Sassuolo · Serie A
1 · Bologna 56%X 26%18% Sassuolo · 2
56%
26%
18%
Analysis: Bologna – Sassuolo
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Bologna's 56% win probability against Sassuolo sticks out like a sore thumb, suggesting the market might be underestimating the hosts. While both teams share a balanced and physical playing style, the home side's stronger defensive numbers could tip the scales in their favor. Sassuolo might have the upper hand in points and expected points so far this season, but that's a small sample size and doesn't fully capture the nuances of their defensive vulnerabilities.
The two sides have only met twice since 2021, with Bologna unbeaten in those encounters. However, with such a small head-to-head sample, it's wiser to lean on the broader metrics that show the hosts' defensive solidity. Bologna has an expected goals against (xGA) of just 0.42 per match, significantly tighter than Sassuolo's 1.0. This defensive edge could prove decisive, especially when facing a Sassuolo side that boasts a higher xG per match than Bologna.
The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, both hint at a tight affair. With expected goals at 1.62 for Bologna and 1.09 for Sassuolo, a low-scoring game seems probable. The over/under 2.5 goals is a coin flip at 51%, but given Bologna's defensive prowess, the under might just be the safer lean. That said, both teams to score sits at 54%, so the odd goal might still find its way through.
For bettors, the sharpest angle here is the value on a Bologna win. With Betsson and Nordicbet offering odds of 2.05, and Betsafe close behind at 2.02, there's a noticeable edge on the home side. Given the model's 56% win probability for Bologna, this presents a value opportunity that shouldn't be ignored. If you're looking to exploit market inefficiencies, backing the hosts could be the way to go.
BolognaForm WWDLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #8xP/match #3Points #15
Key players
- Lewis FergusonCMxG 0.25 · xT 0.25
- Eivind HellandCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
- Torbjørn HeggemCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
SassuoloForm LLLLW
League ranking xG #4xGA #7xT #11xP/match #2Points #11
Key players
- Cristian VolpatoRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
- Armand LaurienteLWxG 0.52 · xT 0.31
- Simone CinquegranoRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Bologna – Sassuolo
Predicted score matrix
Sassuolo →
Bologna →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–16.9%
0–23.9%
0–31.4%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–010.4%
1–112.1%
1–26.4%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.7%
2–19.5%
2–25.2%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–04.7%
3–15.2%
3–22.8%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–02.8%
4+–13.0%
4+–21.6%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,62–1,09
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.81
Over 2,551%
@2.08EV+3%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Bologna to win56%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Santiago Thomas Castro to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Santiago Thomas Castro to score31%
- Luca Lipani to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Bologna56% probability@2.04PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
- 1 · Bologna56% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
- 1 · Bologna56% probability@1.98BetssonEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Bologna | X | 2 · Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 12% 1.98 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Betsson | EV+ 12% 1.98 | 3.40 | 3.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 12% 1.98 | 3.40 | 3.95 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 15% 2.04 | 3.43 | 3.88 |
Odds updated 4 Sept, 08:38
Odds movement
1+5 %
50 %45 %
1.93 → 2.04
X-1 %
30 %25 %
3.47 → 3.43
2-3 %
27 %22 %
3.98 → 3.88
Over 2,5+2 %
49 %44 %
2.04 → 2.08
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 29/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesBologna 1Draw 1Sassuolo 0
Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Bologna
Sassuolo
Bologna (0–2)
Sassuolo (3–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Bologna
Sassuolo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Bologna
Sassuolo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Bologna | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| xPoints | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 0.42 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.64 | 0.42 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Bologna | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.98 |
| xTA per match | 0.57 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 16 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.86 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| Passes per match | 507 | 410 |
| Passes against per match | 332 | 509 |
| Switches of play per match | 33.5 | 31.3 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Bologna | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.8 | 0.62 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.86 |
| Other | Bologna | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.8 |
| The goalkeepers | Lukasz Skorupski (Bologna) | Arijanet Anan Murić (Sassuolo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 4 | 8 |
| Save % | 67% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 79% | 63% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Bologna vs Sassuolo according to our model?
The model gives Bologna a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bologna 56%, draw 26%, Sassuolo 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.