Cagliari vs Lecce: Prediction & Odds (7 Sept 2026)

Serie A7 September 2026Unipol Domus, Cagliari27°18 km/h

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CagliariBalanced & physical

LecceLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Cagliari (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lecce @ 4.10 (+8 %)

1 · Cagliari 41%X 32%26% Lecce · 2

41%

32%

26%

Analysis: Cagliari – Lecce

Sofia Andersson · 6 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lecce since 2021 is balanced at two wins apiece from four encounters. This small sample size suggests that other factors should weigh more heavily in assessing the matchup. The model slightly favors Cagliari with a 41% chance of winning, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 in their favor. Yet, Lecce's edge in xPoints and xG per match suggests they could punch above their weight. Their direct playing style and ability to generate xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball at 0.54 compared to Cagliari's 0.03 could catch the hosts off guard.

Cagliari, boasting a balanced and physical approach, have posted an expected goals tally of 1.29 versus Lecce's 0.92. However, this doesn't tell the full story. Lecce's defensive frailties, with an xGA of 2.5, should provide opportunities for Cagliari. But Cagliari's own xGA stands at 2.4, indicating potential vulnerabilities that Lecce might exploit, especially given their superior xG in rapid transitions.

Despite Cagliari's apparent edge in outright probabilities, the numbers suggest a tight contest. With the draw rated at 32% and both teams to score at 44%, a low-scoring draw like 1-1, the second most likely scoreline at 13%, is plausible. The over 2.5 goals probability at 38% underlines the expectation for a match leaning under.

From a betting perspective, the draw holds value at odds of 3.25 with Betsson and Nordicbet, offering a 5% edge. Additionally, the visitors are priced at 3.95 with Betsafe, showing a 4% edge. Given Lecce's ability to counterbalance Cagliari's strengths, the draw at these odds emerges as the sharpest angle to consider.

Cagliari

Form LWWWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #12xP/match #18Points #9

Key players

Alessandro RomanoCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
Michel AdopoRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Adam ObertLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13

Lecce

Form LWWWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #20xT #16xP/match #14Points #10

Key players

Santiago PierottiCMxG 0.25 · xT 0.06
Olaf GorterLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.00
Lassana CoulibalyCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.00

Match prediction: Cagliari – Lecce

Predicted score matrix

Lecce →

Cagliari →

0–011.3%

0–19.7%

0–24.6%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.4%

1–013.8%

1–113.4%

1–26.0%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.2%

2–18.4%

2–23.9%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–04.0%

3–13.6%

3–21.7%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.6%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-113%
3.0-011%
4.0-110%
5.2-09%

Expected goals

1,29–0,92

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,2

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+7%

Under 2,562%

@1.66EV+3%

Over 2,538%

@2.31

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cagliari or draw (1X)74%
Under 3.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cagliari or draw (1X)74%
Under 2.5 goals62%
Ibrahim Sulemana Kakari to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals38%
Ibrahim Sulemana Kakari to score22%
Ylber Ramadani to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lecce26% probability@4.10PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
2 · Lecce26% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
2 · Lecce26% probability@3.95BetssonEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cagliari	X	2 · Lecce
Betsafe	2.08	3.10	EV+ 4% 3.95
Betsson	2.08	3.10	EV+ 4% 3.95
Nordicbet	2.08	3.10	EV+ 4% 3.95
Pinnacle	2.11	EV+ 3% 3.19	EV+ 8% 4.10

Odds updated 7 Sept, 10:35

Odds movement

1-2 %

49 %44 %

2.16 → 2.11

X+4 %

33 %28 %

3.06 → 3.19

2+9 %

26 %21 %

3.76 → 4.10

Pinnacle · 25 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 07/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Cagliari 2Draw 0Lecce 2

Goals: 6–5 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cagliari

Lecce

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cagliari (1–1)

Lecce (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cagliari

Lecce

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cagliari

Lecce

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cagliari	Lecce
Points	3	3
xPoints	1.7	2.3
xG per match	0.84	1.5
xGA per match	2.4	2.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.03	0.54
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	1

Playing style	Cagliari	Lecce
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.28
Field tilt	0.42	0.23
xT per match	0.91	0.73
xTA per match	1.6	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	21	16
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.2	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.2
Entries into the box per match	9	8
Entries into the box against	23	16
Pass completion %	0.81	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.6
Passes per match	374	234
Passes against per match	508	566
Switches of play per match	14.4	10
Long balls per match	26	13

Set pieces	Cagliari	Lecce
xG from free kicks	0.05	0
Corners per match	5	2.5
Corners against per match	4.5	3
xG per corner	0.03	0.23
xGA per corner against	0.07	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.3	0.6
First touch, defensive corners %	0.44	0.67

Other	Cagliari	Lecce
Throw-in control	0.58	0.41

The goalkeepers	Elia Caprile (Cagliari)	Wladimiro Falcone (Lecce)
Saves	7	10
Save %	88%	71%
xG prevented	95%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cagliari vs Lecce according to our model?

The model gives Cagliari a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cagliari 41%, draw 32%, Lecce 26%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 38% and under at 62%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.