Frosinone vs Juventus: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

Serie A23 August 2026Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone28°12 km/h

Frosinone

JuventusPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Juventus (61%)Best value by the model: 1 · Frosinone @ 7.40 (+33 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Frosinone 18%X 21%61% Juventus · 2

18%

21%

61%

Analysis: Frosinone – Juventus

Marcus Johansson · 18 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

61% — that's the towering probability the model assigns to a Juventus victory against Frosinone Calcio, and it's a number that looms large over this Serie A clash. Juventus come into the match riding an unbeaten streak of eight league games, a testament to their current form and the quality coursing through their squad. Meanwhile, Frosinone Calcio, despite playing at home, face an uphill battle as clear underdogs, their own form overshadowed by a head-to-head record since 2021 that reads two losses out of two.

Juventus have the upper hand not just in form but also in expected goals, with a significant 1.95 compared to Frosinone’s 1.07. The model's most likely scorelines — a 1-1 draw or a 1-2 win for Juventus, both at 10% probability — suggest an encounter that could see goals from both sides. Yet the 0-2 prediction lurking at 9% underscores Juve's potential to win convincingly should their defense hold firm. Furthermore, with a 58% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, the match promises attacking action, barring any weather disruptions that might dampen the spectacle.

Frosinone Calcio, though, aren’t without their own glimmers of hope. The odds from Betsson, Nordicbet, and Betsafe, offering a tempting 7.4 for a home win, highlight a striking 33% edge according to the model. Such EV+ opportunities don't guarantee a win but flag a potentially lucrative punt for those willing to gamble on an upset in a sport that regularly surprises.

Yet, it's Juventus who hold the aces, and a 1-2 victory feels the most plausible outcome, given the stats and their form. For bettors, the sharpest angle might just be capitalising on the over 2.5 goals market, where there's a decent 58% probability baked into the predictions, offering a more conservative punt than gambling on the long odds of a Frosinone triumph.

Frosinone

Form WDLWL

Juventus

Form DDWLD

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #2xP/match #3Points #6

Key players

Dušan VlahovićFxG 0.76 · xT 0.08
Manuel LocatelliCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.22
Kenan YıldızLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.26

Match prediction: Frosinone – Juventus

Predicted score matrix

Juventus →

Frosinone →

0–05.2%

0–19.2%

0–29.3%

0–36.0%

0–4+4.6%

1–04.9%

1–110.5%

1–29.9%

1–36.5%

1–4+4.9%

2–02.8%

2–15.4%

2–25.3%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.6%

3–01.0%

3–11.9%

3–21.9%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.7%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-29%
4.0-19%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,07–1,95

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.02

Over 2,558%

@1.81EV+5%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Juventus to win61%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Juventus to win61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Dušan Vlahović to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Dušan Vlahović to score31%
Giacomo Calò to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Frosinone18% probability@7.40BetssonEV+33%reference odds
1 · Frosinone18% probability@7.40NordicbetEV+33%reference odds
1 · Frosinone18% probability@7.30BetsafeEV+31%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Frosinone	X	2 · Juventus
Betsafe	EV+ 31% 7.30	4.20	1.47
Betsson	EV+ 33% 7.40	4.20	1.47
Nordicbet	EV+ 33% 7.40	4.20	1.47

Odds updated 19 Aug, 08:37

Odds movement

10 %

15 %10 %

7.40 → 7.40

X-3 %

25 %20 %

4.35 → 4.20

2+1 %

67 %62 %

1.46 → 1.47

Over 2,5-1 %

55 %50 %

1.83 → 1.81

Betsson · 8 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 19/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Juventus

When goals are scored and conceded — 2025

Juventus (61–34)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Juventus

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Juventus

The goalkeepers	Frosinone	Michele Di Gregorio (Juventus)
Saves	–	62
Save %	–	73%
xG prevented	–	63%
Claims	–	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Frosinone vs Juventus according to our model?

The model gives Juventus a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Frosinone 18%, draw 21%, Juventus 61%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.