01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Como to win56%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
Serie AStadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova25°9 km/h
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GenoaBalanced & physicalvs
ComoPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Como (56%)
Genoa – Como · Serie A
1 · Genoa 18%X 26%56% Como · 2
18%
26%
56%
Analysis: Genoa – Como
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: In this clash, the stark contrast in recent performances sets the stage. Genoa, grappling with a three-match losing streak, are desperate for redemption on home turf, yet their woes are compounded by a challenging head-to-head history against Como since 2021: no wins in four encounters. These numbers, though from a limited sample, highlight Genoa's struggle to assert dominance over their visitors. Meanwhile, Como arrives buoyed by a six-match unbeaten run, showcasing a resilient side with a knack for possession control.
Como's tactical approach shines through in the expected goals (xG) metrics. With an xG of 1.54 compared to Genoa's 0.88, the visitors not only create more opportunities but also capitalize on their ability to control the game. This superiority is reflected further in Como's xG per match of 1.6, significantly outpacing Genoa's 0.72. The statistics underline the model's favoring of Como to secure a win, assigning them a 56% probability compared to Genoa's 18%.
The match's outcome leans towards a low-scoring affair. The most likely scorelines, 0-1 (13%) and 1-1 (12%), coupled with the over/under 2.5 goals probability of just 43%, suggest that fans shouldn't expect a flurry of goals. Both teams are predicted to score in only 46% of scenarios, further hinting at a tight defensive battle rather than a free-flowing contest.
For those looking to place their bets, the model's confidence in a Como win presents a compelling case for the visitors to continue their unbeaten streak. As the numbers suggest, Como is poised to edge past a struggling Genoa side, potentially by a 0-1 margin.
GenoaForm DDLLL
League ranking xG #18xGA #6xT #20xP/match #6Points #16
Key players
- Aaron MartinLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
- Ruslan MalinovskyiCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.11
- Leo OstigardCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
ComoForm DWWWD
League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #19xP/match #12Points #13
Key players
- Jacobo RamonCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
- Luis MillaCAMxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
- Trevoh ChalobahCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Genoa – Como
Predicted score matrix
Como →
Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.3%
0–113.4%
0–210.6%
0–35.4%
0–4+2.9%
1
1–07.5%
1–112.4%
1–29.3%
1–34.8%
1–4+2.6%
2
2–03.4%
2–15.3%
2–24.1%
2–32.1%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–01.0%
3–11.6%
3–21.2%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–00.3%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-113%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.0-211%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-29%
Expected goals
0,88–1,54
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,557%
@1.65
Over 2,543%
@2.32EV+1%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Como to win56%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Anastasios Douvikas to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Anastasios Douvikas to score33%
- Patrizio Masini to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Como56% probability@1.83PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- 2 · Como56% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- 2 · Como56% probability@1.82BetssonEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Genoa | X | 2 · Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 4.90 | 3.30 | EV+ 1% 1.82 |
| Betsson | 4.90 | 3.30 | EV+ 1% 1.82 |
| Nordicbet | 4.90 | 3.30 | EV+ 1% 1.82 |
| Pinnacle | 5.48 | 3.24 | EV+ 2% 1.83 |
Odds updated 2 Sept, 19:36
Odds movement
10 %
20 %15 %
5.48 → 5.48
X+2 %
32 %27 %
3.17 → 3.24
2+2 %
55 %50 %
1.79 → 1.83
Over 2,50 %
44 %39 %
2.33 → 2.32
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 02/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesGenoa 0Draw 2Como 2
Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Genoa have lost 3 in a row.
- Como are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Genoa
Como
Genoa (0–2)
Como (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Genoa
Como
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Genoa
Como
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 0.72 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 0.78 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.3 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 0.23 | 0.53 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 380 | 496 |
| Passes against per match | 463 | 313 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.2 | 17.6 |
| Long balls per match | 18 | 17 |
| Set pieces | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 9.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 0.98 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 1 |
| Other | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.58 | 1 |
| The goalkeepers | Justin Bijlow (Genoa) | Jean Butez (Como) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 2 |
| Save % | 50% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 27% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Genoa vs Como according to our model?
The model gives Como a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Genoa 18%, draw 26%, Como 56%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.