01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Genoa or draw (1X)63%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Serie AStadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova23°17 km/h
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GenoaBalanced & physicalvs
FrosinoneLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Genoa (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Frosinone @ 3.64 (+22 %)
Genoa – Frosinone · Serie A
1 · Genoa 36%X 30%34% Frosinone · 2
36%
30%
34%
Analysis: Genoa – Frosinone
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Genoa have been on a dire streak, losing five consecutive matches, which makes their upcoming clash against Frosinone intriguing from a betting perspective. Despite having the home advantage, the hosts are in a slump, while Frosinone, having collected six points recently, appear in stronger form. The market leans slightly towards Genoa, but the 36% win probability does not suggest overwhelming confidence.
The numbers suggest a tight encounter, with both teams likely to find the net. Expected goals are neck and neck — Genoa at 1.21 and Frosinone at 1.26 — making a 1-1 draw (13%) the most probable outcome. With only a 45% chance for over 2.5 goals, it looks like a match where defences could hold. Genoa’s balanced style versus Frosinone’s direct approach sets the stage for a tactical battle rather than an open affair.
The real opportunity lies with the visitors. Frosinone at odds of 3.55 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offers tremendous value, given the model’s 34% probability which translates to a 19% edge. The numbers suggest a slight advantage for the visitors, potentially ending in a 0-1 victory. This edge makes backing Frosinone an appealing option for value hunters.
GenoaForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #18xGA #6xT #20xP/match #11Points #19
Key players
- Morten FrendrupCDMxG 0.06 · xT -0.02
- Johan VasquezCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
- Brooke Norton-CuffyRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
FrosinoneForm WLLWW
League ranking xG #14xGA #13xT #17xP/match #10Points #6
Key players
- Antonio RaimondoFxG 0.49 · xT 0.04
- Giacomo CaloCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
- Giorgi KvernadzeLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Genoa – Frosinone
Predicted score matrix
Frosinone →
Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.9%
0–110.3%
0–26.7%
0–32.8%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–09.9%
1–113.3%
1–28.1%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.2%
2–17.8%
2–24.9%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.1%
3–22.0%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,21–1,26
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,555%
@1.91EV+4%
Over 2,545%
@1.96
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Genoa or draw (1X)63%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Lorenzo Colombo to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Lorenzo Colombo to score26%
- Morten Wetche Frendrup to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Frosinone34% probability@3.64PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
- 2 · Frosinone34% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- 2 · Frosinone34% probability@3.45BetssonEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Genoa | X | 2 · Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.12 | EV+ 3% 3.40 | EV+ 16% 3.45 |
| Betsson | 2.12 | EV+ 3% 3.40 | EV+ 16% 3.45 |
| Nordicbet | 2.12 | EV+ 3% 3.40 | EV+ 16% 3.45 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | EV+ 2% 3.36 | EV+ 22% 3.64 |
Odds updated 10 Sept, 10:38
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 4 September — the odds have shortened from 2.17 to 1.96 (−10%).
1+14 %
53 %43 %
1.88 → 2.15
X-3 %
33 %23 %
3.46 → 3.36
2-14 %
30 %20 %
4.22 → 3.64
Over 2,5-10 %
52 %42 %
2.17 → 1.96
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 10/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Genoa have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Genoa
Frosinone
Genoa (1–7)
Frosinone (6–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Genoa
Frosinone
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Genoa
Frosinone
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Genoa | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 6 |
| xPoints | 3.9 | 4 |
| xG per match | 0.72 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.05 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | Genoa | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.3 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 0.46 | 0.71 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 18 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.63 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| Passes per match | 404 | 183 |
| Passes against per match | 489 | 349 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.9 | 12.7 |
| Long balls per match | 21 | 22 |
| Set pieces | Genoa | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 7.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.69 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| Other | Genoa | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.67 |
| The goalkeepers | Justin Bijlow (Genoa) | Lorenzo Palmisani (Frosinone) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 10 |
| Save % | 53% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 28% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Genoa vs Frosinone according to our model?
The model gives Genoa a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Genoa 36%, draw 30%, Frosinone 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.