01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Napoli to win57%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Serie AStadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova25°11 km/h
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GenoaPossession controlvs
NapoliPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Napoli (57%)
Genoa – Napoli · Serie A
1 · Genoa 18%X 25%57% Napoli · 2
18%
25%
57%
Analysis: Genoa – Napoli
Anna Karlsson · · How the predictions work
Napoli's 76 points compared to Genoa's 41 tells a compelling story of dominance. The model gives Napoli a hefty 57% chance of victory, underscoring their superiority in this matchup. With expected goals favoring Napoli at 1.60 compared to Genoa's 0.88, it's clear that the visitors are the more potent side going forward.
Napoli's style revolves around possession control, a mirror image of Genoa's approach. Yet, it's the Neapolitans who wield this weapon more effectively. Their xG per match sits at 1.5 versus Genoa's 1.2, a decisive edge that reflects their ability to convert possession into goals. Defensively, the Neapolitan resolve is stronger, conceding an xGA of 1.1 per match compared to Genoa's leaky 1.6.
The head-to-head sample size doesn't weigh heavily, but what matters here is current form and the expected goals model. The most likely scoreline is a tidy 0-1 in favor of Napoli at 13%. Right behind it, a 1-1 draw at 12% suggests potential resilience from Genoa, but the undercurrent is Napoli's strength. The over/under 2.5 goals market leans towards the under at 45%, matching the somewhat conservative goal-scoring expectations.
Genoa could find themselves hemmed in by Napoli's superior possession play. The expected goals see Genoa struggling to score, and the most probable outcome is a Napoli clean sheet. Betting value shines for the visitor's win at odds of 1.88 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, each presenting a 6% edge based on the model's 57% win probability for Napoli.
In a match forecast to be tightly contested in midfield, Napoli’s knack for turning control into goals gives them the upper hand. Expect a narrow victory, likely a 0-1, with the value bet clearly marked on Napoli’s side.
GenoaForm LDDLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #16xT #17xP/match #19Points #16
Key players
- Aaron MartinLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.14
- Ruslan MalinovskyiCMxG 0.18 · xT 0.11
- Leo OstigardCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.06
NapoliForm DDLDD
League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #7xP/match #7Points #2
Key players
- Giovanni Di LorenzoRWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.13
- Amir RrahmaniCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
- Matteo PolitanoRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: Genoa – Napoli
Predicted score matrix
Napoli →
Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.7%
0–113.1%
0–210.7%
0–35.7%
0–4+3.3%
1
1–07.0%
1–112.1%
1–29.4%
1–35.0%
1–4+2.9%
2
2–03.2%
2–15.2%
2–24.1%
2–32.2%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–00.9%
3–11.5%
3–21.2%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.3%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.3%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-113%
- 2.1-112%
- 3.0-211%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
0,88–1,60
Both teams to score
47%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.63
Over 2,545%
@2.30EV+4%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Napoli to win57%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- André-Frank Zambo Anguissa to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score47%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- André-Frank Zambo Anguissa to score28%
- Morten Wetche Frendrup to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Napoli57% probability@1.88BetsafeEV+6%
- 2 · Napoli57% probability@1.88BetssonEV+6%
- 2 · Napoli57% probability@1.88NordicbetEV+6%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Genoa | X | 2 · Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 4.70 | 3.20 | EV+ 6% 1.88 |
| Betsson | 4.70 | 3.20 | EV+ 6% 1.88 |
| Nordicbet | 4.70 | 3.20 | EV+ 6% 1.88 |
Odds updated 18 Aug, 06:36
Odds movement
10 %
23 %18 %
4.70 → 4.70
X0 %
32 %27 %
3.20 → 3.20
20 %
53 %48 %
1.88 → 1.88
Over 2,50 %
44 %39 %
2.30 → 2.30
Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Genoa
Genoa (41–51)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Genoa
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Genoa
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41 | 76 |
| xPoints | 45.8 | 54.4 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 0.95 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 0.69 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 325 | 496 |
| Passes against per match | 350 | 326 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.2 | 26.1 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 2.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| Other | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Nicola Leali (Genoa) | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 58 | – |
| Save % | 69% | – |
| xG prevented | 46% | – |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | – |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Genoa vs Napoli according to our model?
The model gives Napoli a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Genoa 18%, draw 25%, Napoli 57%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.