01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Inter to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Serie ASan Siro, Milano27°9 km/h
Läs på svenska
InterPossession controlvs
NapoliBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Inter (57%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 7.09 (+43 %)
Inter – Napoli · Serie A
1 · Inter 57%X 23%20% Napoli · 2
57%
23%
20%
Analysis: Inter – Napoli
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
In the last four meetings between Inter and Napoli since 2021, the Nerazzurri have yet to secure a win, posting three draws and one loss. However, with just four matches in this head-to-head sample, its weight is less significant than the current form and underlying metrics. Inter's unbeaten streak of 11 league matches and Napoli's recent trio of victories paint a picture of two teams arriving in strong form. Yet, it's Inter's overall dominance at home, winning 72% over 39 matches, that stands out.
The expected goals model gives Inter a hefty edge, projecting them to create 2.03 xG compared to Napoli’s 1.07 xG. This suggests that the hosts will likely control the tempo and create more scoring opportunities. Inter's possession-focused style might dictate the game's flow, with the visitors’ physical approach potentially serving as a counterbalance. Inter's defensive solidity is illustrated by their xGA of 1.0 per match, slightly higher than Napoli’s 0.72, but significantly bolstered by their ability to defend transitions effectively, conceding virtually no xGA within 8 seconds of losing possession.
Despite the model's probabilities showing Inter as 57% favorites, Napoli's ability to thrive on quick transitions — evident in their superior xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball — should not be overlooked. Still, with Inter's strong home record and current form, a 2-1 win for the home side seems plausible. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 60%, reflecting both teams' capacity to find the net.
As for the betting angle, the odds reflect the model's lean, but Inter Milan to win at 1.75 with Bet365 offers value. Given the statistical edge and their home prowess, backing Inter aligns with a shrewd, disciplined approach to betting.
InterForm WWDDW
League ranking xG #9xGA #9xT #12xP/match #13Points #2
Key players
- Marcus ThuramFxG 0.56 · xT 0.04
- Pio EspositoFxG 0.51 · xT 0.07
- Lautaro MartinezFxG 0.52 · xT 0.09
NapoliForm DLWWW
League ranking xG #15xGA #5xT #5xP/match #15Points #3
Key players
- Giovanni Di LorenzoRWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.13
- Amir RrahmaniCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
- Matteo PolitanoRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: Inter – Napoli
Predicted score matrix
Napoli →
Inter →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–14.5%
0–22.6%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–08.8%
1–110.1%
1–25.2%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.3%
2–19.9%
2–25.3%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–06.3%
3–16.7%
3–23.6%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–05.1%
4+–15.5%
4+–22.9%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,03–1,07
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@1.82
Over 2,560%
@2.07EV+23%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Inter to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Piotr Sebastian Zieliński to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Piotr Sebastian Zieliński to score25%
- André-Frank Zambo Anguissa to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.520% probability@7.09BetsafeEV+43%reference odds
- Over 4.520% probability@7.09BetssonEV+43%reference odds
- Over 4.520% probability@7.09NordicbetEV+43%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Inter | X | 2 · Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.68 | 3.60 | EV+ 8% 5.40 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 3.65 | EV+ 8% 5.40 |
| Nordicbet | 1.68 | 3.65 | EV+ 8% 5.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.87 | EV+ 6% 5.27 |
Odds updated 31 Aug, 16:15
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Inter win since 28 August — the odds have shortened from 1.76 to 1.69 (−4%).
1-4 %
58 %53 %
1.76 → 1.69
X+7 %
28 %23 %
3.62 → 3.87
2+11 %
22 %17 %
4.73 → 5.27
Over 2,50 %
49 %44 %
2.07 → 2.07
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 28/08/2026 → 31/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesInter 0Draw 3Napoli 1
Goals: 5–7 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Inter Milan are unbeaten in their last 11 league matches.
- Napoli come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Inter Milan win 72% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Inter
Napoli
Inter (4–1)
Napoli (2–0)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Inter
Napoli
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Inter
Napoli
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Inter | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 3 |
| xPoints | 1 | 1 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 0.78 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 0.72 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | Inter | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.51 | 0.23 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 6 | 7 |
| Pass completion % | 0.85 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 655 | 461 |
| Passes against per match | 252 | 379 |
| Switches of play per match | 38.5 | 45.3 |
| Long balls per match | 44 | 41 |
| Set pieces | Inter | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 3.1 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 1 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 1 |
| Other | Inter | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| The goalkeepers | Josep Martinez (Inter) | Scott Mctominay (Napoli) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 2 |
| Save % | 67% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 84% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Inter vs Napoli according to our model?
The model gives Inter a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Inter 57%, draw 23%, Napoli 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.