01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Inter to win78%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Serie ASan Siro, Milano23°9 km/h
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InterPossession controlvs
UdineseBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Inter (78%)Best value by the model: 2 · Udinese @ 13.00 (+11 %)
Inter vs Udinese · Serie A
1 · Inter 78%X 14%9% Udinese · 2
78%
14%
Analysis: Inter – Udinese
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Inter's dominance over Udinese is evident, having won three out of their last four meetings since 2021. While a small sample, it complements the current form of the hosts, who are on a three-match winning streak. With Inter claiming 72% of their home games historically, the stage seems set for another strong performance.
The tactical contrast is clear. Inter's possession-based style is likely to suffocate Udinese’s balanced but physical approach. The visitors’ defensive vulnerabilities are stark, conceding an average of 1.7 xGA per match, which should be worrying against an Inter side that generates 3.0 xG per match. The expected goals suggest a comfortable outing for the Nerazzurri, with Inter projected at 2.56 xG compared to Udinese’s meager 0.64 xG.
The model suggests a 62% probability for over 2.5 goals, yet with Udinese's expected goals so low, the over might hinge primarily on Inter's ability to capitalize on their chances. The most probable scorelines of 2-0 and 3-0 reinforce this notion. With a 44% chance for both teams to score, Udinese finding the net seems less likely.
For punters, the betting value lies in backing Inter at odds of 1.3 with Betsson or Nordicbet, mirroring the model’s 78% winning probability. The slight edge at these odds makes it a worthwhile consideration. In such a context, a 2-0 win for the hosts feels like a sound prediction.
InterForm DDWWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #2xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Pio EspositoFxG 0.83 · xT 0.01
- Federico DimarcoLWBxG 0.19 · xT 0.45
- Luis HenriqueRWxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
UdineseForm LLDWL
League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #9xP/match #10Points #11
Key players
- Idrissa GueyeFxG 0.45 · xT -0.09
- Keinan DavisFxG 0.36 · xT 0.14
- Mërgim VojvodaRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.30
Match prediction: Inter – Udinese
Predicted score matrix
Udinese →
Inter →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.3%
0–12.4%
0–20.8%
0–30.2%
0–4+0.0%
1
1–010.2%
1–16.9%
1–22.1%
1–30.5%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–013.3%
2–18.6%
2–22.7%
2–30.6%
2–4+0.1%
3
3–011.4%
3–17.3%
3–22.3%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–013.4%
4+–18.6%
4+–22.8%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-013%
- 2.3-011%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,56–0,64
Both teams to score
44%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.59
Over 2,562%
@1.51
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Inter to win78%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Yann Aurel Ludger Bisseck to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score44%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Yann Aurel Ludger Bisseck to score37%
- Christian Kabasele to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Udinese9% probability@13.00BetssonEV+11%reference odds
- 2 · Udinese9% probability@13.00NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
- 2 · Udinese9% probability@12.50BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Inter | X | 2 · Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.27 | 5.25 | EV+ 7% 12.50 |
| Betsson | 1.27 | 5.30 | EV+ 11% 13.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.27 | 5.30 | EV+ 11% 13.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.25 | 6.32 | 11.09 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 21:38
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Inter win since 6 September — the odds have shortened from 1.30 to 1.25 (−4%).
1-4 %
77 %72 %
1.30 → 1.25
X+15 %
19 %14 %
5.49 → 6.32
2+20 %
12 %7 %
9.26 → 11.09
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 06/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesInter 3Draw 0Udinese 1
Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Inter Milan come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Inter Milan win 72% of their home matches all-time (40 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Inter
Udinese
Inter (8–3)
Udinese (5–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Inter
Udinese
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Inter
Udinese
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Inter | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 4 |
| xPoints | 5.2 | 4 |
| xG per match | 3 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Inter | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.73 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 1.9 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.67 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 25 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 7 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.86 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 600 | 322 |
| Passes against per match | 275 | 453 |
| Switches of play per match | 42.1 | 21.9 |
| Long balls per match | 42 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Inter | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.4 | 2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 7 |
| xG per corner | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| Other | Inter | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Josep Martinez (Inter) | Maduka Okoye (Udinese) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 13 |
| Save % | 75% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 84% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Inter vs Udinese according to our model?
The model gives Inter a 78% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Inter 78%, draw 14%, Udinese 9%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.