01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Juventus to win77%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Serie AAllianz Stadium, Torino24°7 km/h
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JuventusPossession & high pressvs
ParmaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Juventus (77%)Best value by the model: 2 · Parma @ 16.00 (+40 %)
Juventus – Parma · Serie A
1 · Juventus 77%X 15%9% Parma · 2
77%
15%
Analysis: Juventus – Parma
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: A Juventus victory over Parma seems almost inevitable, considering the weight of statistical evidence. With model probabilities heavily favoring the hosts at 77%, and most likely scorelines of 2-0 or 1-0, the home side's dominance is tangible. Juventus's possession-heavy and high-press style aligns well with their ability to control matches, especially against a Parma side characterized by a more balanced and physical approach. The expected goals (xG) figures underline this imbalance: 2.26 for Juventus versus a mere 0.70 for the visitors.
Historically, Juventus's home strength is undeniable, winning 55% of their home matches all-time (38 played). Against Parma, the head-to-head since 2021 reveals a slight edge for the hosts with 2 wins, a draw, and a loss. However, with just four matches in this sample, it's their current form and xG figures that cast the more compelling narrative. Juventus clearly outshine Parma in expected points, xG, and expected goals against (xGA), showcasing their superior quality on both ends of the pitch.
Despite Parma's physicality, which can sometimes disrupt more technically inclined teams, they lack the offensive firepower to threaten consistently. Their xG per match of 0.85 pales in comparison to Juventus's 1.8, suggesting that the visitors will struggle to find the net. While the model indicates a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals, Juventus's strong defensive metrics—0.48 xGA per game—suggest that the visitors might not contribute to this tally.
For those seeking a betting edge, the most striking opportunity lies with Parma. Despite their slim 9% chance of victory, the odds of 18.5 offered by Betsson and Nordicbet, as well as 18.0 by Betsafe, present a significant value proposition with over a 58% edge. While unlikely, the potential payoff is substantial.
JuventusForm DWLDW
League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #2xP/match #3Points #6
Key players
- Pierre KaluluRWBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
- Gleison BremerCBxG 0.22 · xT 0.22
- Manuel LocatelliCMxG 0.00 · xT 0.10
ParmaForm LLLWL
League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #11xP/match #9Points #13
Key players
- Emanuele ValeriLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.02
- Christian OrdonezCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.04
- Abdoulaye NdiayeCBxG 0.24 · xT 0.01
Match prediction: Juventus – Parma
Predicted score matrix
Parma →
Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–13.4%
0–21.3%
0–30.3%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–011.5%
1–18.4%
1–22.9%
1–30.7%
1–4+0.1%
2
2–013.2%
2–19.3%
2–23.2%
2–30.8%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–010.0%
3–17.0%
3–22.4%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–09.6%
4+–16.7%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-013%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.3-010%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.1-18%
Expected goals
2,26–0,70
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.25
Over 2,557%
@1.67
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Juventus to win77%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Jonathan Christian David to score41%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Jonathan Christian David to score41%
- Hans Nicolussi Caviglia to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Parma9% probability@16.00BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
- 2 · Parma9% probability@16.00BetssonEV+40%reference odds
- 2 · Parma9% probability@16.00NordicbetEV+40%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Juventus | X | 2 · Parma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | EV+ 3% 1.34 | 5.70 | 8.40 |
| Betsafe | 1.22 | 5.65 | EV+ 40% 16.00 |
| Betsson | 1.23 | 5.70 | EV+ 40% 16.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.23 | 5.70 | EV+ 40% 16.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 6.77 | EV+ 21% 13.85 |
Odds updated 25 Aug, 06:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
82 %77 %
1.19 → 1.21
X+5 %
16 %11 %
6.45 → 6.77
2+11 %
9 %4 %
12.50 → 13.85
Over 2,5+3 %
60 %55 %
1.63 → 1.67
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 25/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesJuventus 2Draw 1Parma 1
Goals: 8–4 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Juventus win 55% of their home matches all-time (38 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Juventus
Parma
Juventus (1–0)
Parma (0–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Juventus
Parma
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Juventus
Parma
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Juventus | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 0 |
| xPoints | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 0.85 |
| xGA per match | 0.48 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.55 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| Playing style | Juventus | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.74 | 0.3 |
| xT per match | 1.8 | 0.72 |
| xTA per match | 0.39 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 14 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.48 | 0.19 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.39 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 6 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 388 | 370 |
| Passes against per match | 183 | 437 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.9 | 32.2 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 23 |
| Set pieces | Juventus | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.17 |
| Corners per match | 11.4 | 2.9 |
| Corners against per match | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.1 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.75 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.5 |
| Other | Juventus | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Guglielmo Vicario (Juventus) | Edoardo Corvi (Parma) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 4 |
| Save % | 100% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 92% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Juventus vs Parma according to our model?
The model gives Juventus a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Juventus 77%, draw 15%, Parma 9%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.