Lecce vs Roma: Prediction & Odds (31 Aug 2026)

Serie A31 August 2026Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce29°16 km/h

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LecceLow block & direct

RomaPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Roma (61%)Best value by the model: 1 · Lecce @ 7.90 (+10 %)

1 · Lecce 14%X 25%61% Roma · 2

14%

25%

61%

Analysis: Lecce – Roma

Sofia Andersson · 26 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

**FAKTA-sjekk: Én faktafeil funnet.**

Oddsen 7.5 med 14% sannsynlighet tilsvarer Lecce (hjemmelaget), ikke Roma. Siste avsnitt antyder feilaktig at hjemmelaget er Roma. Korrigert tekst:

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The model gives Roma a commanding 61% chance of victory over Lecce, underscoring their clear superiority in both form and metrics. With six consecutive wins, Roma's attacking consistency is a key factor, having found the net in 16 straight league encounters. Despite Lecce's own three-match winning streak, their underlying numbers tell a different story, with an expected goals (xG) tally of just 0.81 for this game compared to Roma's 1.47.

The head-to-head record, albeit a small sample of four matches, shows a complete dominance by Roma, winning every encounter since 2021. Their possession-based style is likely to control the flow of the match against Lecce's direct approach. The expected goals against (xGA) further highlight Roma's defensive prowess, conceding an average of just 0.3 per match, compared to Lecce's 2.1. The most probable scorelines reflect this asymmetry: a 0-1 to Roma stands at 15%, with a 0-2 following at 11%.

While the over 2.5 goals probability sits at 40%, the lean is toward a tighter affair, suggesting the under may be a safer call. For those looking for value in the odds, bets on Lecce (the home side) at 7.5 with Betsson or Nordicbet offer a 5% edge according to the model, though Roma's strong form casts doubt on such a long shot.

Lecce

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #4xGA #15xT #6xP/match #8Points #4

Key players

Santiago PierottiCMxG 0.42 · xT 0.13

Roma

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #2xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Donyell MalenFxG 0.71 · xT 0.11
Zeki CelikRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.11
Wesley FrançaLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Lecce – Roma

Predicted score matrix

Roma →

Lecce →

0–010.6%

0–114.7%

0–211.1%

0–35.4%

0–4+2.8%

1–07.9%

1–112.5%

1–29.0%

1–34.4%

1–4+2.2%

2–03.3%

2–14.9%

2–23.6%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.9%

3–00.9%

3–11.3%

3–21.0%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.3%

4+–20.2%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-115%
2.1-113%
3.0-211%
4.0-011%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

0,81–1,47

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.76EV+5%

Over 2,540%

@2.13

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Roma to win61%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Roma to win61%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Leon Patrick Bailey Butler to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Leon Patrick Bailey Butler to score29%
Ylber Ramadani to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Lecce14% probability@7.90BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
1 · Lecce14% probability@7.90NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
Under 1.533% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lecce	X	2 · Roma
Betsafe	EV+ 10% 7.90	3.85	1.49
Betsson	EV+ 3% 7.40	3.90	1.52
Nordicbet	EV+ 10% 7.90	3.90	1.49
Pinnacle	6.88	EV+ 4% 4.12	1.53

Odds updated 27 Aug, 14:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Roma win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 1.70 to 1.53 (−10%).

1+26 %

21 %11 %

5.46 → 6.88

X+14 %

30 %20 %

3.62 → 4.12

2-10 %

64 %54 %

1.70 → 1.53

Over 2,5-8 %

48 %38 %

2.32 → 2.13

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Lecce 0Draw 0Roma 4

Goals: 1–8 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

Lecce come into this round on 3 straight wins.
AS Roma come into this round on 6 straight wins.
AS Roma have scored in 16 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lecce

Roma

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lecce (2–0)

Roma (4–0)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lecce

Roma

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lecce

Roma

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lecce	Roma
Points	3	3
xPoints	1.7	2.8
xG per match	2.3	3.3
xGA per match	2.1	0.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.93	0.74
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.12

Playing style	Lecce	Roma
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.29
Field tilt	0.23	0.68
xT per match	1.2	2
xTA per match	1.1	0.49
Won balls, offensive half	15	21
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.33	0.39
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.34
Entries into the box per match	10	18
Entries into the box against	12	4
Pass completion %	0.65	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.53	0.79
Passes per match	188	503
Passes against per match	552	291
Switches of play per match	12.1	31.2
Long balls per match	16	32

Set pieces	Lecce	Roma
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	3	2.1
Corners against per match	5	3.1
xG per corner	0.22	0
xGA per corner against	0	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.8	0.67

Other	Lecce	Roma
Throw-in control	0.45	0.75

The goalkeepers	Wladimiro Falcone (Lecce)	Mile Svilar (Roma)
Saves	6	5
Save %	100%	100%
xG prevented	100%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lecce vs Roma according to our model?

The model gives Roma a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lecce 14%, draw 25%, Roma 61%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 15% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.