01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Monza or draw (1X)72%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
Serie AU-Power Stadium, Monza20°6 km/h
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MonzaLow block & directvs
SassuoloBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Monza (42%)
Monza vs Sassuolo · Serie A
1 · Monza 42%X 27%31% Sassuolo · 2
42%
27%
31%
Analysis: Monza – Sassuolo
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Sassuolo's physicality has been a defining feature in the early stages of this Serie A season, which could pose a significant challenge for Monza. The visitors' balanced approach contrasts sharply with the hosts’ direct style, creating an intriguing tactical battle. Despite Monza's strong likelihood of victory at 42%, the numbers suggest a more nuanced narrative.
The expected goals (xG) tell a revealing story: Sassuolo edges Monza with 1.9 xG per match compared to Monza's 1.5. However, Monza shows slightly better defensive metrics, with an xGA of 1.3 against Sassuolo’s 1.4. This might explain why the most likely scorelines lean slightly in Monza’s favor, with the model's top scorelines being 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), and 2-1 (9%). The balance between these offensive and defensive strengths suggests a match where small details, perhaps a set-piece or a defensive lapse, could decide the outcome.
While Monza has only one point so far compared to Sassuolo's four, the xPoints metric suggests a closer contest than the table might imply. Monza's 4.7 xPoints indicate some misfortune or inefficiency in converting their chances — a factor that could correct itself on home turf. The model supports this notion, highlighting Monza as the favorite, albeit by a slim margin.
The goal-scoring probabilities are telling: a mere 46% chance for over 2.5 goals and just 51% for both teams to score. This implies a tight, potentially low-scoring encounter. Given these figures, backing the under 2.5 goals at odds that reflect public expectations of a more open game could offer value.
Ultimately, the model's inclination towards Monza, with a most likely scoreline of 1-1, aligns with the cautious goal expectations.
MonzaForm LLLLD
League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #11xP/match #6Points #17
Key players
- Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa VarelaFxG 0.38 · xT -0.08
- Samuele BirindelliLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.21
- Andrea CarboniCBxG 0.22 · xT 0.15
SassuoloForm LLLWD
League ranking xG #4xGA #10xT #15xP/match #4Points #10
Key players
- Cristian VolpatoRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
- Armand LaurienteLWxG 0.45 · xT 0.25
- Darryl BakolaCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: Monza – Sassuolo
Predicted score matrix
Sassuolo →
Monza →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.3%
0–18.3%
0–24.8%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–011.0%
1–112.9%
1–26.9%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.2%
2–19.0%
2–24.9%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.9%
3–14.3%
3–22.4%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,44–1,10
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.91EV+2%
Over 2,546%
@1.93
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Monza or draw (1X)72%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Samuele Birindelli to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- M'Bala Nzola to score25%
- Matteo Pessina to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Monza42% probability@2.82BetssonEV+20%reference odds
- 1 · Monza42% probability@2.82NordicbetEV+20%reference odds
- 1 · Monza42% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Monza | X | 2 · Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 19% 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Betsson | EV+ 20% 2.82 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 20% 2.82 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 18% 2.78 | 3.36 | 2.55 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 16:15
Odds movement
10 %
37 %32 %
2.77 → 2.78
X0 %
31 %26 %
3.35 → 3.36
20 %
40 %35 %
2.54 → 2.55
Over 2,50 %
52 %47 %
1.93 → 1.93
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 10/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Monza
Sassuolo
Monza (4–8)
Sassuolo (5–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Monza
Sassuolo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Monza
Sassuolo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Monza | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 4 |
| xPoints | 4.7 | 5.7 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Monza | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.99 | 0.81 |
| xTA per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 333 | 376 |
| Passes against per match | 429 | 513 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.2 | 24.5 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Monza | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 5.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.65 |
| Other | Monza | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Lorenzo Lucchesi (Monza) | Arijanet Anan Murić (Sassuolo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 11 |
| Save % | 100% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Monza vs Sassuolo according to our model?
The model gives Monza a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monza 42%, draw 27%, Sassuolo 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.