01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Monza or draw (1X)71%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
Serie AU-Power Stadium, Monza25°1,2 mm10 km/h
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MonzaLow block & directvs
UdineseBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Monza (43%)
Monza – Udinese · Serie A
1 · Monza 43%X 27%31% Udinese · 2
43%
27%
31%
Analysis: Monza – Udinese
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Monza are staring at a three-game losing streak, a worrying trend that highlights their defensive vulnerabilities. Yet, it's not all doom and gloom for the hosts. The model gives them a 43% chance to grab a win, and interestingly, both Betsson and Nordicbet offer odds of 3.3 for a home victory, which presents a compelling value bet. Despite their recent struggles, Monza have the potential to bounce back, especially given their previous head-to-head win against Udinese, albeit from a small sample.
Udinese arrive with a marginal advantage in overall points this season, though the head-to-head since 2021 favours Monza slightly, with 1 win and 1 loss in two meetings. However, their xG per match of 1.3 doesn't significantly outshine Monza's. The physical and balanced approach of the visitors may not exploit Monza's low defensive setup as effectively as they would like. The expected goals suggest a close affair, with Monza edging the xPoints slightly at 1.7 versus 1.6.
Given the expected rainfall of 9.0 mm, defenses are likely to dictate proceedings, further reducing the chances of a high-scoring game. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits at just 43%, suggesting a more conservative scoreline. The most probable outcomes, a 1-1 draw at 13% and a 1-0 win for Monza at 12%, underline the tightness expected in this fixture.
The real kicker lies in the value play. With Monza's odds at 3.3 with Betsson and Nordicbet, and 3.25 with Betsafe, there's an enticing edge for the home side. The model's 43% estimation gives a significant value angle, provided they can arrest their current form slump. The hosts may just have the right mix to eke out a result, making those odds worth serious consideration.
MonzaForm LWLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #14xP/match #6Points #16
Key players
- Patrick CutroneFxG 0.30 · xT 0.08
- Paulo AzziLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
- Armando IzzoCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.18
- Numbers from Serie B 2025
UdineseForm WWLLD
League ranking xG #8xGA #11xT #6xP/match #7Points #8
Key players
- Mërgim VojvodaRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.48
- Hassane KamaraLWBxG 0.18 · xT 0.03
- James AbankwahCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Monza – Udinese
Predicted score matrix
Udinese →
Monza →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.3%
0–19.1%
0–25.0%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–011.7%
1–113.2%
1–26.8%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.2%
2–18.7%
2–24.6%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.7%
3–13.9%
3–22.1%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–11.8%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-09%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,35–1,06
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,557%
@1.66
Over 2,543%
@2.29
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Monza or draw (1X)71%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Samuele Birindelli to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Samuele Birindelli to score18%
- Thomas Thiesson Kristensen to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Monza43% probability@3.43PinnacleEV+46%reference odds
- 1 · Monza43% probability@3.30BetssonEV+40%reference odds
- 1 · Monza43% probability@3.30NordicbetEV+40%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Monza | X | 2 · Udinese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 38% 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.28 |
| Betsson | EV+ 40% 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.28 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 40% 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.28 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 46% 3.43 | 3.22 | 2.30 |
Odds updated 25 Aug, 12:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesMonza 1Draw 0Udinese 1
Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Monza have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Monza
Udinese
Monza (1–4)
Udinese (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Monza
Udinese
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Monza
Udinese
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Monza | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Playing style | Monza | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 0.51 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 0.52 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 15 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.1 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 6 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 251 | 311 |
| Passes against per match | 654 | 494 |
| Switches of play per match | 14.5 | 22.4 |
| Long balls per match | 22 | 23 |
| Set pieces | Monza | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 0.98 |
| Corners against per match | 3.1 | 9.8 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0 | 0.5 |
| Other | Monza | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Andrea Carboni (Monza) | Maduka Okoye (Udinese) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 5 |
| Save % | 100% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Monza vs Udinese according to our model?
The model gives Monza a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monza 43%, draw 27%, Udinese 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.