01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Napoli to win57%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Serie AStadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli25°12 km/h
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NapoliBalanced & physicalvs
BolognaBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Napoli (57%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 3.76 (+8 %)
Napoli vs Bologna · Serie A
1 · Napoli 57%X 24%19% Bologna · 2
57%
24%
19%
Analysis: Napoli – Bologna
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
TEXT:
The clash between Napoli and Bologna looks to be a tight affair, but the devil is in the details. Despite Napoli's solid 57% win probability from the model, Bologna's defensive resilience and edge in expected goals (xG) metrics suggest a closer contest. The visitors have an unexpectedly strong xG of 1.9 per match against Napoli's 1.6, which hints at their ability to trouble the hosts. Although Napoli has the historical home advantage, winning 69% of their matches, recent head-to-head results favor Bologna, with two wins in their last four encounters.
Napoli's expected goals of 1.70 overshadow Bologna's 1.00 for this match, but it must be noted that Bologna's defense, with an xGA of just 0.74, could frustrate the hosts' attacking efforts. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, underscore the potential for a low-scoring game, though the model actually leans slightly toward over 2.5 goals at 51%. Both teams' balanced and physical styles might lead to a midfield battle, suppressing the number of clear-cut chances.
The xPoints metric reveals Bologna's ability to outperform expectations, indicating they cannot be underestimated despite the lower win probability. Although Napoli edges out in points, Bologna's superior expected points (5.7 vs 4.2) and defensive solidity suggest they can grind out a result. A 1-1 draw seems plausible, representing a blend of form, defensive strength, and historical outcomes.
For those seeking a value bet, the over 3.5 market offers an enticing opportunity. With odds of 3.76 provided by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model sees an 8% edge, valuing the outcome at 29%. Although a high-scoring game isn't the forecast, the odds present a rare chance to capitalize on potential volatility.
NapoliForm WWWLL
League ranking xG #6xGA #17xT #5xP/match #8Points #12
Key players
- Rasmus HojlundFxG 0.29 · xT -0.06
- Matteo PolitanoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.22
- Amir RrahmaniCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
BolognaForm WDLLD
League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #8xP/match #3Points #15
Key players
- Lewis FergusonCDMxG 0.18 · xT 0.27
- Eivind HellandCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
- Federico BernardeschiRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.29
Match prediction: Napoli – Bologna
Predicted score matrix
Bologna →
Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–16.4%
0–23.4%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–011.1%
1–111.7%
1–25.7%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.7%
2–19.7%
2–24.9%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–05.5%
3–15.5%
3–22.8%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.4%
4+–13.4%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-010%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,70–1,00
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.76
Over 2,551%
@2.12EV+6%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Napoli to win57%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Rasmus Winther Højlund to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Rasmus Winther Højlund to score33%
- Jhon Janer Lucumí Bonilla to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.529% probability@3.76BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
- Over 3.529% probability@3.76BetssonEV+8%reference odds
- Over 3.529% probability@3.76NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Napoli | X | 2 · Bologna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 3% 1.82 | 3.40 | 4.70 |
| Betsson | EV+ 3% 1.82 | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 3% 1.82 | 3.50 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 4% 1.84 | 3.60 | 4.57 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 21:38
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Bologna win since 5 September — the odds have shortened from 5.06 to 4.57 (−10%).
1+8 %
56 %51 %
1.70 → 1.84
X-2 %
29 %24 %
3.68 → 3.60
2-10 %
22 %17 %
5.06 → 4.57
Over 2,5+1 %
48 %43 %
2.10 → 2.12
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 05/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesNapoli 1Draw 1Bologna 2
Goals: 6–6 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Napoli win 69% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Napoli
Bologna
Napoli (5–5)
Bologna (2–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Napoli
Bologna
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Napoli
Bologna
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 1 |
| xPoints | 4.2 | 5.7 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 0.74 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.53 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| Playing style | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.54 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 18 | 17 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.86 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| Passes per match | 369 | 512 |
| Passes against per match | 476 | 325 |
| Switches of play per match | 30 | 31.7 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 6.6 |
| Corners against per match | 7.2 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.68 | 0.43 |
| Other | Napoli | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Alex Meret (Napoli) | Lukasz Skorupski (Bologna) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 8 |
| Save % | 69% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 29% | 67% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Napoli vs Bologna according to our model?
The model gives Napoli a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Napoli 57%, draw 24%, Bologna 19%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.