01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Napoli to win45%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Serie AStadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli29°17 km/h
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NapoliBalanced & physicalvs
ComoPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Napoli (45%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 9.56 (+33 %)
Napoli – Como · Serie A
1 · Napoli 45%X 28%27% Como · 2
45%
28%
27%
Analysis: Napoli – Como
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Since 2021, Napoli and Como have faced each other four times, with the results evenly split: one win each and two draws. While the head-to-head record is too small to be decisive, it does suggest a potential for a closely-fought contest. In this upcoming clash, the form book leans towards the hosts, who are enjoying a rich vein of success with three consecutive victories. Meanwhile, Como's unbeaten streak of six league matches cannot be ignored, adding a layer of intrigue to the encounter.
Napoli boasts an impressive home record, winning 71% of their matches in front of their own fans. This fortress-like performance at home is a significant advantage. However, Como's possession-based style might offer them a tactical counter, and their recent unbeaten run suggests they will not be easy to break down. The expected goals model gives Napoli a slight edge, forecasting 1.56 xG compared to the visitors' 1.15, further hinting at a possible narrow win for the home side.
The model assigns a 45% probability to Napoli emerging victorious, compared to 27% for Como. The most likely scorelines suggest tight margins: a 1-1 draw at 12%, a 1-0 victory for Napoli at 10%, and a 2-1 result at 9%. These numbers reflect a match poised on a knife-edge, with goals and the ultimate winner hard to predict. At 51%, the over 2.5 goals market has a slight lean, but both teams to score is a touch more probable at 54%.
For those looking for a sharper edge, the over 4.5 goals market offers notable value. With Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all pricing this outcome at odds of 9.56, there's a significant edge available. The model's 14% probability versus the bookmakers’ pricing offers a 33% value opportunity. While not the likeliest of outcomes, it's a tempting proposition for those drawn to higher-risk, high-reward scenarios.
NapoliForm DLWWW
League ranking xG #15xGA #5xT #5xP/match #15Points #3
Key players
- Giovanni Di LorenzoRWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.13
- Amir RrahmaniCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
- Matteo PolitanoRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18
ComoForm DWWWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #11xT #16xP/match #12Points #10
Key players
- Jacobo RamonCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
- Luis Milla ManzanaresCAMxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
- Trevoh Thomas ChalobahCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: Napoli – Como
Predicted score matrix
Como →
Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–17.3%
0–24.4%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–010.0%
1–112.3%
1–26.9%
1–32.6%
1–4+1.0%
2
2–08.1%
2–19.3%
2–25.4%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–04.2%
3–14.9%
3–22.8%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–12.7%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,56–1,15
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.63
Over 2,551%
@2.41EV+17%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Napoli to win45%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Rasmus Winther Højlund to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Anastasios Douvikas to score25%
- Máximo Perrone to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.514% probability@9.56BetsafeEV+33%reference odds
- Over 4.514% probability@9.56BetssonEV+33%reference odds
- Over 4.514% probability@9.56NordicbetEV+33%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Napoli | X | 2 · Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | EV+ 21% 2.66 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 11% 2.45 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| Betsson | EV+ 12% 2.48 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 12% 2.48 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 13% 2.49 | 3.17 | 3.12 |
Odds updated 27 Aug, 16:17
Odds movement
1+4 %
41 %36 %
2.40 → 2.49
X-3 %
32 %27 %
3.27 → 3.17
2+6 %
34 %29 %
2.93 → 3.12
Over 2,5+6 %
43 %38 %
2.28 → 2.41
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 23/08/2026 → 27/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesNapoli 1Draw 2Como 1
Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Napoli come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Como are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
- Napoli win 71% of their home matches all-time (38 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Napoli
Como
Napoli (2–0)
Como (1–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Napoli
Como
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Napoli
Como
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Napoli | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 1 |
| xPoints | 1 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 0.78 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 0.72 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.07 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Napoli | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.7 | 0.51 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.53 |
| xTA per match | 0.23 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 7 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 461 | 494 |
| Passes against per match | 379 | 312 |
| Switches of play per match | 45.3 | 17.6 |
| Long balls per match | 41 | 17 |
| Set pieces | Napoli | Como |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 9.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 0.98 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.09 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 1 | 1 |
| Other | Napoli | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.83 | 1 |
| The goalkeepers | Scott Mctominay (Napoli) | Jean Butez (Como) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 2 | 2 |
| Save % | 100% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Napoli vs Como according to our model?
The model gives Napoli a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Napoli 45%, draw 28%, Como 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.