01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Juventus to win60%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Serie AMapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia22°9 km/h
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SassuoloBalanced & physicalvs
JuventusPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Juventus (60%)
Sassuolo vs Juventus · Serie A
1 · Sassuolo 17%X 22%60% Juventus · 2
17%
22%
60%
Analysis: Sassuolo – Juventus
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
A stark contrast defines this matchup: Sassuolo's balanced and physical approach meets Juventus's possession-heavy, high-press style. The numbers paint a clear picture: the visitors are favored, with a 60% model probability of taking all three points. Yet, Sassuolo's robust physicality and effective offense, boasting an average of 1.9 expected goals per match, suggest they won't be pushovers.
The head-to-head record between these two sides is small, with just two encounters since 2021. Juventus edged one win and a draw, a slim history that shouldn't overshadow current form and stats. Sassuolo's greater xPoints at 5.7 compared to their actual tally of 4 indicates they've been somewhat unlucky, while Juventus’s xPoints closely mirror their real points, reinforcing their solid form.
Despite Juventus's impressive defensive metrics, allowing just 0.3 xGA per match, Sassuolo's attacking record could pose a challenge. The model predicts Juventus to score nearly twice, with 1.89 expected goals. Meanwhile, the hosts are anticipated to notch up 0.90, hinting at possible difficulties in breaking down Juventus's back line.
Goals might be on the menu, with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% likelihood of both sides finding the net. This aligns with the playing styles: the Bianconeri’s high press could leave gaps for Sassuolo’s counter-attacks, while the hosts' physicality may disrupt Juve's rhythm, offering chances on both ends.
Given the probabilities and expected goals, a 0-2 or 1-1 result feels plausible. As the clear model favorite, Juventus winning without conceding stands out as a solid pick given their formidable defensive stance.
SassuoloForm LLLWD
League ranking xG #4xGA #10xT #15xP/match #4Points #10
Key players
- Cristian VolpatoRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.14
- Armand LaurienteLWxG 0.45 · xT 0.25
- Darryl BakolaCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.18
JuventusForm LDWWD
League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #3xP/match #2Points #6
Key players
- Pierre KaluluRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.18
- Douglas LuizFxG 0.26 · xT 0.06
- Gleison BremerCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Sassuolo – Juventus
Predicted score matrix
Juventus →
Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–111.3%
0–211.0%
0–36.9%
0–4+5.0%
1
1–05.2%
1–110.8%
1–29.9%
1–36.2%
1–4+4.5%
2
2–02.5%
2–14.7%
2–24.5%
2–32.8%
2–4+2.0%
3
3–00.7%
3–11.4%
3–21.3%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.2%
4+–10.4%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-111%
- 2.0-211%
- 3.1-111%
- 4.1-210%
- 5.0-37%
Expected goals
0,90–1,89
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@2.05
Over 2,553%
@1.83
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Juventus to win60%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Jonathan Christian David to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Jonathan Christian David to score28%
- Luca Lipani to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Juventus60% probability@1.68BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
- 2 · Juventus60% probability@1.68BetssonEV+1%reference odds
- 2 · Juventus60% probability@1.68NordicbetEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sassuolo | X | 2 · Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 4.90 | 3.85 | EV+ 1% 1.68 |
| Betsson | 4.95 | 3.90 | EV+ 1% 1.68 |
| Nordicbet | 4.95 | 3.90 | EV+ 1% 1.68 |
| Pinnacle | 5.26 | 4.11 | 1.65 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 19:40
Odds movement
1-4 %
21 %16 %
5.48 → 5.26
X+2 %
26 %21 %
4.02 → 4.11
2+4 %
61 %56 %
1.59 → 1.65
Over 2,5-4 %
55 %50 %
1.88 → 1.81
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 05/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesSassuolo 0Draw 1Juventus 1
Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sassuolo
Juventus
Sassuolo (5–5)
Juventus (4–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sassuolo
Juventus
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sassuolo
Juventus
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sassuolo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 7 |
| xPoints | 5.7 | 6.4 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.61 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| Playing style | Sassuolo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| xT per match | 0.81 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.32 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 31 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 6 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 376 | 425 |
| Passes against per match | 513 | 310 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.5 | 28.9 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Sassuolo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 9.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.66 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| Other | Sassuolo | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Arijanet Anan Murić (Sassuolo) | Guglielmo Vicario (Juventus) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 5 |
| Save % | 69% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 89% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sassuolo vs Juventus according to our model?
The model gives Juventus a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sassuolo 17%, draw 22%, Juventus 60%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.