Sassuolo vs Torino: Prediction & Odds (29 Aug 2026)

Serie A29 August 2026Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia28°15 km/h

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SassuoloBalanced & physical

TorinoLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Sassuolo (38%)Best value by the model: No @ 2.10 (+5 %)

1 · Sassuolo 38%X 31%31% Torino · 2

38%

31%

Analysis: Sassuolo – Torino

Sofia Andersson · 24 August 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Sassuolo's recent form is troubling, with the hosts on a four-game losing streak despite the underlying numbers suggesting they shouldn't be. Their expected metrics paint a different picture: xPoints and xG heavily favor them over Torino, indicating a side that creates chances but hasn't converted them into results recently. The balance and physicality of their play style might clash effectively against Torino's low defensive block and direct approach, setting the stage for a tactical battle.

The model leans towards Sassuolo with a 38% win probability, yet the most likely outcome is a tight 1-1 draw at 13%. With an expected goals tally of 1.34 compared to Torino's 1.11, Sassuolo edges their visitors, albeit marginally. The over/under 2.5 goals market suggests a restrained affair, with the lean towards under and a 50% chance for both teams to score. The numbers hint at a match where defensive solidity could prevail over attacking flair.

Torino's historical edge in head-to-heads since 2021 is based on just two matches, a sample too small to outweigh current form and expected goals. Their defensive rigidity might frustrate Sassuolo, but the expected goals dominance of the home side within eight seconds of winning the ball (0.39 vs. 0.0) suggests they could exploit quick transitions better.

From a betting perspective, there's value in taking Torino at odds of 3.4 with Betsson and Nordicbet, or 3.35 with Betsafe. The model rates Torino's chances at 31%, providing a slight edge. While not a guarantee, these odds do offer an enticing prospect given the tight nature of this matchup. A 1-1 draw seems likely, with Sassuolo's xMetrics hinting that they might just edge it if they can break their losing streak.

Sassuolo

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #2xGA #6xT #5xP/match #1Points #11

Key players

Ismael KoneFxG 0.12 · xT 0.08
Kristian ThorstvedtCAMxG 0.23 · xT 0.09
Cristian VolpatoRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.12

Torino

Form LWLDL

League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #12xP/match #15Points #10

Key players

Giovanni SimeoneFxG 0.31 · xT 0.01
Nikola VlašićCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.10
Valentino LazaroLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Sassuolo – Torino

Predicted score matrix

Torino →

Sassuolo →

0–09.0%

0–19.2%

0–25.3%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.2%

1–113.2%

1–27.1%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.7%

2–18.6%

2–24.8%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.5%

3–13.8%

3–22.1%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.6%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,34–1,11

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.83EV+2%

Over 2,544%

@2.06

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sassuolo or draw (1X)69%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sassuolo or draw (1X)69%
Under 2.5 goals56%
M'Bala Nzola to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
M'Bala Nzola to score29%
Kristjan Asllani to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Both teams to score: No50% probability@2.10Betfair ExchangeEV+5%reference odds
2 · Torino31% probability@3.40PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.40Betfair ExchangeEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sassuolo	X	2 · Torino
Betfair Exchange	2.38	EV+ 5% 3.40	2.98
Betsafe	2.22	EV+ 2% 3.30	EV+ 0% 3.25
Betsson	2.25	EV+ 2% 3.30	EV+ 2% 3.30
Nordicbet	2.25	EV+ 2% 3.30	EV+ 2% 3.30
Pinnacle	2.25	EV+ 3% 3.34	EV+ 5% 3.40

Odds updated 25 Aug, 10:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sassuolo 0Draw 0Torino 2

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

Sassuolo have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sassuolo

Torino

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sassuolo (1–2)

Torino (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sassuolo

Torino

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sassuolo

Torino

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sassuolo	Torino
Points	0	0
xPoints	2.3	0.7
xG per match	2.3	0.7
xGA per match	0.88	2.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.28

Playing style	Sassuolo	Torino
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.33
Field tilt	0.54	0.28
xT per match	1.1	0.54
xTA per match	1	2.1
Won balls, offensive half	22	29
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.17	0.18
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.2
Entries into the box per match	13	4
Entries into the box against	9	19
Pass completion %	0.85	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.83	0.68
Passes per match	428	331
Passes against per match	550	524
Switches of play per match	33.6	10.4
Long balls per match	21	14

Set pieces	Sassuolo	Torino
xG from free kicks	0	0.13
Corners per match	4.1	2.1
Corners against per match	4.1	4.2
xG per corner	0.08	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.75	0
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.75

Other	Sassuolo	Torino
Throw-in control	0.74	0.62

The goalkeepers	Arijanet Anan Murić (Sassuolo)	Ardian Ismajli (Torino)
Saves	5	2
Save %	71%	100%
xG prevented	50%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sassuolo vs Torino according to our model?

The model gives Sassuolo a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sassuolo 38%, draw 31%, Torino 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.