Torino vs Roma: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Serie A13 September 2026Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino23°5 km/h

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TorinoLow block & direct

RomaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Roma (58%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.23 (+8 %)

1 · Torino 17%X 25%58% Roma · 2

17%

25%

58%

Analysis: Torino – Roma

Anna Karlsson · 8 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Seven wins to one in their last ten meetings, Roma's dominance over Torino is undeniable. With an impressive 58% win probability and coming off eight consecutive victories, the visitors are expected to control the encounter. Their high press and possession play make them formidable against Torino's low defense and direct style. Most likely scorelines indicate a 12% chance for both a 0-1 and 1-1 result, but Roma's capacity to find the net in 18 straight league games suggests they may have more firepower.

The expected goals underscore the gap: 1.74 for the visitors compared to just 0.90 for the hosts. Roma's xG per match is a commanding 3.2 against Torino’s 0.9, while defensively, they concede far less—0.59 xGA compared to Torino's 2.0. Despite this, the model suggests an edge for the home side at odds of 6.0 with Betsson and Nordicbet (2% edge) and 5.95 with Betsafe (1% edge), presenting a value opportunity for those favoring an unlikely upset.

While the over/under leans just shy of the 50% mark, Roma's offensive streak makes a 0-2 result plausible. As Torino struggles to break through, punters would be wise to consider Roma's winning momentum as the safest bet for this Serie A clash.

Torino

Form LDLLW

League ranking xG #17xGA #18xT #16xP/match #19Points #13

Key players

Rolando MandragoraCDMxG 0.13 · xT 0.11
Che AdamsFxG 0.33 · xT 0.02
Saúl CocoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.06

Roma

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Matias SouleLWxG 1.16 · xT 0.33
Paulo DybalaRWxG 0.43 · xT 0.71
Wesley FrançaLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.62

Match prediction: Torino – Roma

Predicted score matrix

Roma →

Torino →

0–07.5%

0–112.1%

0–210.8%

0–36.2%

0–4+4.0%

1–06.1%

1–111.5%

1–29.7%

1–35.6%

1–4+3.6%

2–02.9%

2–15.1%

2–24.4%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.6%

3–00.9%

3–11.5%

3–21.3%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.5%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.4%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-112%
2.1-112%
3.0-211%
4.1-210%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

0,90–1,74

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

07%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@2.07EV+3%

Over 2,549%

@1.81

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Roma to win58%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Roma to win58%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Leon Patrick Bailey Butler to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Leon Patrick Bailey Butler to score30%
Kristjan Asllani to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw25% probability@4.23PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
Under 2.551% probability@2.07PinnacleEV+5%reference odds
Under 2.551% probability@2.02BetsafeEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Torino	X	2 · Roma
Betsafe	EV+ 0% 5.90	3.85	1.58
Betsson	EV+ 1% 5.95	3.90	1.60
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 5.95	3.90	1.60
Pinnacle	EV+ 1% 5.95	EV+ 8% 4.23	1.57

Odds updated 11 Sept, 20:33

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 5 September — the odds have shortened from 2.05 to 1.79 (−13%).

1+9 %

22 %12 %

5.46 → 5.95

X+12 %

29 %19 %

3.79 → 4.23

2-4 %

65 %55 %

1.63 → 1.57

Over 2,5-13 %

55 %45 %

2.05 → 1.79

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 05/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

10 matches

Torino 1Draw 2Roma 7

Goals: 5–15 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

AS Roma dominate this fixture historically: 7 wins to 1 in 10 meetings.
AS Roma come into this round on 8 straight wins.
AS Roma have scored in 18 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Torino

Roma

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Torino (4–5)

Roma (10–1)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Torino

Roma

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Torino

Roma

The teams in numbers

Performance	Torino	Roma
Points	3	9
xPoints	2.4	7.2
xG per match	0.9	3.2
xGA per match	2	0.59
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.92
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.36	0.09

Playing style	Torino	Roma
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.29
Field tilt	0.38	0.77
xT per match	0.74	2.7
xTA per match	1.1	0.43
Won balls, offensive half	19	34
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.34
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.27
Entries into the box per match	7	29
Entries into the box against	17	5
Pass completion %	0.82	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.78
Passes per match	433	545
Passes against per match	404	270
Switches of play per match	14.5	38.8
Long balls per match	21	33

Set pieces	Torino	Roma
xG from free kicks	0.08	0
Corners per match	3.4	5.6
Corners against per match	3.7	2
xG per corner	0	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.09
First touch, offensive corners %	0.1	0.71
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.33

Other	Torino	Roma
Throw-in control	0.72	0.75

The goalkeepers	Diego Mascardi (Torino)	Mile Svilar (Roma)
Saves	7	8
Save %	64%	89%
xG prevented	65%	78%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Torino

Fixtures, form & tips

Roma

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Torino vs Roma according to our model?

The model gives Roma a 58% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Torino 17%, draw 25%, Roma 58%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.