01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Udinese or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
Serie ABluenergy Stadium, Udine18°7 km/h
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UdineseBalanced & physicalvs
CagliariBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Udinese (40%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 4.57 (+12 %)
Udinese vs Cagliari · Serie A
1 · Udinese 40%X 31%29% Cagliari · 2
40%
31%
29%
Analysis: Udinese – Cagliari
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: Udinese holds a slight edge with a 40% likelihood of victory against Cagliari's 29%, according to the model probabilities. Despite this, both teams share a physical and balanced style, which tends to neutralize high-scoring outcomes. The home side's recent head-to-head record is commanding, with three wins and a draw in the last four encounters, though the small sample size limits its weight compared to current form and expected goals.
The expected goals model gives Udinese a modest advantage with 1.34 to Cagliari's 1.16. This narrow margin suggests a low-scoring affair. Most likely, it will end 1-1, backed by a 13% probability, while a solitary 1-0 win for the hosts follows at 11%. With only a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, the under 2.5 goals scenario emerges as a strong possibility.
A potential value bet on Udinese exists, given the model's lean toward the hosts. Their xPoints of 4.0 edge out Cagliari's 3.6, suggesting a more solid underlying performance despite Cagliari's point advantage in the table. For the cautious punter, trusting Udinese's sturdier xG numbers over recent points collected might just prove prudent.
UdineseForm LLDWL
League ranking xG #11xGA #12xT #9xP/match #10Points #11
Key players
- Idrissa GueyeFxG 0.45 · xT -0.09
- Keinan DavisFxG 0.36 · xT 0.14
- Mërgim VojvodaRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.30
CagliariForm WWWLW
League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #12xP/match #13Points #9
Key players
- Alessandro RomanoCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
- Michel AdopoRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Adam ObertLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
Match prediction: Udinese – Cagliari
Predicted score matrix
Cagliari →
Udinese →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.5%
0–19.1%
0–25.5%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.6%
1–113.1%
1–27.4%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.3%
2–18.6%
2–25.0%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.3%
3–13.8%
3–22.2%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-19%
- 5.0-09%
Expected goals
1,34–1,16
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.63
Over 2,546%
@2.35EV+6%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Udinese or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Jurgen Peter Ekkelenkamp to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Jurgen Peter Ekkelenkamp to score31%
- Joseph Liteta to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 3.524% probability@4.57BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
- Over 3.524% probability@4.57BetssonEV+12%reference odds
- Over 3.524% probability@4.57NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Udinese | X | 2 · Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.08 | EV+ 3% 3.30 | EV+ 7% 3.70 |
| Betsson | 2.08 | EV+ 3% 3.30 | EV+ 7% 3.70 |
| Nordicbet | 2.08 | EV+ 3% 3.30 | EV+ 7% 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | EV+ 0% 3.21 | EV+ 8% 3.74 |
Odds updated 11 Sept, 05:38
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesUdinese 3Draw 1Cagliari 0
Goals: 7–2 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Udinese
Cagliari
Udinese (5–5)
Cagliari (2–1)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Udinese
Cagliari
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Udinese
Cagliari
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Udinese | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 6 |
| xPoints | 4 | 3.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 0.96 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Udinese | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.89 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 19 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 322 | 350 |
| Passes against per match | 453 | 485 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.9 | 14.6 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Udinese | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 2 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 7 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.35 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| Other | Udinese | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| The goalkeepers | Maduka Okoye (Udinese) | Elia Caprile (Cagliari) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 10 |
| Save % | 72% | 91% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 96% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Udinese vs Cagliari according to our model?
The model gives Udinese a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Udinese 40%, draw 31%, Cagliari 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.