01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Venezia to win48%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Serie AStadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venezia19°8,2 mm25 km/h
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VeneziaPossession & high pressvs
FiorentinaLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Venezia (48%)
Venezia – Fiorentina · Serie A
1 · Venezia 48%X 26%26% Fiorentina · 2
48%
26%
26%
Analysis: Venezia – Fiorentina
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Two teams locked in a downward spiral meet as Venezia host Fiorentina, both desperate to halt their respective losing streaks. Despite Venezia's four consecutive losses, there's a compelling argument pointing towards them having the edge in this encounter. The probability model assigns a 48% chance of victory to the hosts, highlighting a stark contrast to Fiorentina's 26%. This suggests that the match is likely to be shaped by the high pressing and possession-based play of Venezia against the low defensive block and direct approach of Fiorentina.
Though both sides are struggling, the expected goals figures reveal an intriguing dynamic: Venezia's offensive output is predicted to be higher at 1.63 compared to Fiorentina's 1.26. Despite Fiorentina's slight edge in xPoints, the home side's ability to generate chances quickly after regaining possession is noteworthy, with a superior xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball at 0.36 versus 0.27 for the visitors. These factors, along with a small head-to-head sample since 2021 which slightly favors the hosts, tilt the balance towards a Venezia win.
The likelihood of a 1-1 draw is the most probable scoreline at 12%, but the numbers also suggest a narrow victory for the hosts with a 9% chance of both 2-1 and 1-0 outcomes. This aligns with a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals at 55%, and both teams scoring at 58%, underlining the potential for a competitive match despite recent form.
For those seeking value, the home win is particularly enticing at odds of 2.78 with Betsson and Nordicbet, or 2.75 with Betsafe. The model rates this scenario at a 48% likelihood, offering a significant edge of 33-35%. In a clash where statistics favor the hosts and the odds align, Venezia emerges as the shrewd choice.
VeneziaForm WLLLL
League ranking xG #10xGA #17xT #17xP/match #16Points #18
Key players
- John Yeboah ZamoraRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.07
- Antoine HainautRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.15
- Gianluca Cristiano BusioCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.02
FiorentinaForm WDLLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #6xP/match #15Points #20
Key players
- Mateo PellegrinoFxG 0.11 · xT -0.02
- Cher NdourRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.23
- Franco MastantuonoRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Venezia – Fiorentina
Predicted score matrix
Fiorentina →
Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–16.6%
0–24.4%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–08.7%
1–111.7%
1–27.2%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.4%
2–19.3%
2–25.9%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–04.0%
3–15.1%
3–23.2%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.4%
4+–13.0%
4+–21.9%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,63–1,26
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.06
Over 2,555%
@1.82EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Venezia to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Lion Lauberbach to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Lion Lauberbach to score24%
- Marin Pongračić to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Venezia48% probability@3.06PinnacleEV+48%reference odds
- 1 · Venezia48% probability@2.98BetssonEV+44%reference odds
- 1 · Venezia48% probability@2.98NordicbetEV+44%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Venezia | X | 2 · Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 43% 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.32 |
| Betsson | EV+ 44% 2.98 | 3.50 | 2.32 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 44% 2.98 | 3.50 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 48% 3.06 | 3.35 | 2.43 |
Odds updated 9 Sept, 19:37
Odds movement
1+10 %
35 %30 %
2.79 → 3.06
X+1 %
31 %26 %
3.31 → 3.35
2-5 %
42 %37 %
2.55 → 2.43
Over 2,5-5 %
54 %49 %
1.91 → 1.82
Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 03/09/2026 → 09/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesVenezia 1Draw 1Fiorentina 0
Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Venezia have lost 4 in a row.
- ACF Fiorentina have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Venezia
Fiorentina
Venezia (0–4)
Fiorentina (1–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Venezia
Fiorentina
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Venezia
Fiorentina
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Venezia | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 0 |
| xPoints | 2 | 3.2 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.67 | 0.48 |
| Playing style | Venezia | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.59 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.69 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 434 | 314 |
| Passes against per match | 321 | 400 |
| Switches of play per match | 25.8 | 15.2 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Venezia | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 2.5 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Other | Venezia | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Filip Stanković (Venezia) | David De Gea (Fiorentina) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 6 | 9 |
| Save % | 67% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 20% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Venezia vs Fiorentina according to our model?
The model gives Venezia a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Venezia 48%, draw 26%, Fiorentina 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.